A massive arbitrage has developed in European sovereign CDS, where the differential between local and foreign-denominated (euro and dollar most typically) CDS has jumped to record spreads. Case in point Germany, where €-denom CDS trade at 30 bps, while the $ equivalent is 43 bps, a 30% spread differential. The reason for this is obvious: as concerns of pan-european defaults have hit the euro, getting paid off on euro-denominated default protection seems increasingly less attractive. Should, say, Germany default, €10MM worth of protection on a German credit event would be worth much less at default which would certainly be accompanied by an almost full devaluation of the euro, resulting in a huge hit to the "at converted" currency, presumably dollars (as the euro would no longer exist). This has led to a major drop in demand for EUR-denom German (and other European) protection, with the differential hitting the abovementioned 30% margin. As Fitch discloses, this spread was just 7% in January. As this is a second derivative play on both currency devaluation/vol and increasing default risk, arguably the most profitable way to bet on a the confluence of factors that impact the eurozone could be a simple quanto swap trade, which could reap massive rewards should peripheral or core European weakness persist.
And now for a Milken conference panel that isn't a waste of 99% of your time: Nouriel Roubini, James McCaughan and Bo Lundgren, moderated by TCW's very astute new Chief Global Strategist (presumably one with less of a fetish for dildos and marijuana than his predecessor) discuss the topic de chaque jour: the Eurozone, and specifically Greece. Roubini starts his presentation by saying that it ain't gonna work. Something tells us Roubini does not work for the IMF, the EU, the ECB, Germany, Greece or any other government organization (and thus CNBC).
Another glaring example of how broken the Greek funding market is, is the record negative basis spread in Greek 5 Year Cash-CDS, which as of today is almost -200 bps (see below). As a reminder, the basis trade's massive inversion in the days after the Lehman collapse is among the primary reasons for the implosion of Merrill, and the spectacular blow up of Deutsche's prop trading desk. What the primary implication of this observation is that the market is essentially saying that the imminent Greek bankruptcy will likely be in the form of a voluntary restructuring, which will not trigger CDS, although that is not the full story. The risk/return scenario, as Credit Trader points out, is assuming a 200bps upside to bond spreads, or a 400 bps downside to an inline level with the rest of Europe, in essence a 33% chance of a free fall bankruptcy, whose implication would most likely be the collapse of the Eurozone, as the EMU would be defunct if a member country escalates into an uncontrollable bankruptcy.
Greek 3 Year Bonds Yielding 11.3%, As German Party Member Says Greece Needs Further Austerity Or Should Leave EurozoneSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/22/2010 09:30 -0400
Move along, Greece is still "contained." There's probably 5 corporate names in all of the US that are yielding that much right now. And to add jet fuel to the flames, Handesblatt reports that a German party member says Greece should institute "further austerity measures or leave the eurozone." Goodbye euro.
UST-Bund Spread At Three Year Wides As ECB Warns IMF Involvement Would Be Beginning Of End For EurozoneSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/24/2010 14:39 -0400
The spread between the 10 Year and the Bund has surged today to a 3 year wide. After hitting an intraday slide of 14 bps (a massive move in a world in which each basis point is leveraged thousands of times), the UST-BUND is now at 73 bps. The risk aversion trade in Europe has made 10 year Geman bonds yield just over 3%, even as the near-failed 5 Year auction in the US has spooked the bond market, and an unexpected drill has forced the Primary Dealers out of hiding and into purchasing everything past 5 years to prevent a full out rout in bonds. And all this is occurring as the ECB just warned that IMF involvement in the overhyped and two-month delayed Greek bailout will be the beginning of the end for the euro and will throw the Eurozone's economy, "which has shown fresh signs of recovery, into renewed turmoil."
Poor Greece, and poor Europe: the two are now caught in such an unwinnable tug of war, that the EU is considering unwinding the very fabric of its union (an action, which some say, may not be the worse idea in the here United States) and set the struggling Mediterranean country loose. And if and when that starts, it is game over European Union. Yet posturing will do nothing to change the fact that even as Greek CDS hit an all time high last week, the economic catastrophe in the Ouzo-loving country is accelerating. The latest to join the Greek bashing goon squad is Deutsche Bank, with a note released on Friday, which highlights the key dangers to the country: the ability to finance deficits, capital flights, and an outright default if money does not turn up from under the mattress.
A Comparison Of Liquidity Expansion Efforts In The Eurozone And The US - Implications For The Euro-Dollar TradeSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/28/2009 11:34 -0400
With the vast majority of analysts focusing on American monetary expansion, few if any seem to be looking at what the monetary situation is in the Eurozone. Alternatively, looking at relative strength of the dollar vs the euro, one may suggest that aggressive monetary expansion is the only factor that needs to be addressed. Some highlights of European monetary aggregates confirms just that (especially when juxtaposed with American counterparts), and present several questions: i) when will Europe catch up with the US in expanding various monetary bases, and ii) what will happen to the EUR once the ECB realizes that it needs to recreate the Bernanke Moral Hazard Doctrine and start expanding monetary circulation to the same extent as the Federal Reserve already has?