Eurozone

We’re fast approaching the end of the line here. It’s clear that the EU is out of ideas and is fast approaching the dreaded messy default they’ve been putting off for two years now. Indeed, Greece is just the trial run for what’s coming towards Italy and Spain in short order. NO ONE can bail out those countries. And they must already be asking themselves if it’s worth even bothering with the whole economically crushing austerity measures/ begging for bailouts option. Which means… sooner or later, Europe is going to have to “take the hit.”

European equity indices are exhibiting signs of risk averse behaviour, with financials and basic materials performing particularly poorly. This follows weekend reports from ECB sources that the central bank does not believe voluntary participation in the Greek debt swap deal will be sufficient, and the CACs will have to be invoked. Markets are also reacting to the weekend press from Germany, claiming the Troika believe Greece will require a third bailout of around EUR 50bln by 2020, however these reports were denied by a German spokesman earlier in the session. European Services PMI data released earlier in the session fell below expectations, compounding the already cautious market behaviour. European Banks have parked a fresh record EUR 820bln with the ECB overnight, showing further evidence that the LTRO has loosened liquidity constrictions in the continent. Commodities are making losses ahead of the North American open following overnight news that China have made a downward revision to their GDP target for 2012. Spot gold is trading down around 0.9% and WTI and Brent crude futures have been making a loss for most of the session so far, however oil has made positive movements in recent trade. These negative movements in commodities are also weighing down upon the commodity-linked currencies, with AUD particularly making losses on the session.

• China cuts 2012 growth target to 7.5 percent, stability key (Reuters)
• Freom the Fed scribe himsef - Fed Takes a Break to Weigh Outlook (WSJ)
• Greek bond swap deal rests on knife-edge (FT)
• Lenders Stress Over Test Results (WSJ)
• China to Curb Auto Production Capacity, Promote New-Energy Car Development (Bloomberg)
• China military spending to top $100 billion in 2012, alarming neighbours (WaPo)
• Warning: A New Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest (Hussman)
• EU to push quota for women directors (FT)
• Romney Advances As Obama Gains (WSJ)
• Saudi Aramco Raises Oil Premium for April Sales to Asia, U.S.; Cuts Europe (Bloomberg)

That red color on your screen this morning is not a failure in the green pixel channel but an indication of three main things. First, European composite PMIs came in at 49.3, down from 50.4 in January, and below the preliminary print 49.7 released on February 22. The main reason was the slide in the Eurozone Service PMI which printed at 48.8 on expected 49.4. This included a deterioration not only in the peripheral countries but in the core stalwarts France and Germany too. Elsewhere, China reduced its growth target to 7.5% this year, the lowest goal since 2004. The government will also aim for inflation of about 4 percent this year, unchanged from its goal in 2011. China also announced that it will target a deficit of 800bn CNY for 2012, a rather surprising change from its previous stance. Rounding out the dour note is a Moody's announcement that Ireland is likely to need a second bailout when its current aid program ends, rating agency Moody’s warned today, and that it too may need a PSI just like Greece. Then again, scratch may and replace with will. From the Irish Times: "In its weekly credit outlook report, Moody’s also warned a No vote in the upcoming fiscal treaty referendum would bar Ireland from receiving further funds from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The agency predicted the Government would have to rely on the ESM for additional funding after the existing bailout program expires in 2014. "We expect Ireland to face challenges regaining market access in 2013 and it will likely need to rely on the ESM, at least partially, when the current support  programme expires,” it said." As a reminder, if Ireland proceeds with a referendum on the Fiscal compact, and the referendum fails, it will have no ESM support, and thus no second bailout potential. Finally, the ECB deposit facility usage soared to an all time record of €821 billion overnight, confirming that the LTRO 2, contrary to some wrong analysis, is not being used for Carry trades at all.

All you need to read.

Analysts are questioning the "double-down effect" the ECB's LTRO exercises are creating in eurozone sovereign spreads. Citi notes a spike in the purchase of government securities since the initial take-up in December.

On January 30, a skeleton fell out of the closet in the Netherlands. Het Financiele Dagblad reported that Vestia, the biggest Public Housing Corporation in the Netherlands with 79 thousand rental units, had had a margin call of 1.6 billion euros on its interest rate derivative portfolio. Vestia had doubled its derivative contracts to 10 billion dollars (in notional value) in 2010 on a loan portfolio of 6 billion euros. They say they had arranged the extra “coverage” already for potential future loans.

The loan to cover the shortfall had secretly been provided by the fund guaranteeing Public Housing Corporations, the Warborgfonds, since September 2011. Recently Vestia was able to secure a replacement loan from the De NederlandseWaterschapsbank.

According to RTLZ, Vestia's Contract Support Annexes will have to be examined in detail to figure out exactly what the conditions are. The Interior Minister has been promised the results of this examination sometime in March.

Twenty Woningcorporaties are preparing to guarantee Vestia liquidity of another billion euros. They will demand strict conditions on this sum according to NRC. They want assurances that they will not have to contribute to the Centraal Fonds Volkshuisvesting (CNV) so-called reorganization support if any other corporations get into trouble.

It is not entirely clear how many Woningcorporaties have derivative contracts but newspaper Trouw estimates there to be 148 of them. A fall in interest rates of one percent would require 24 to seek additional funding, according to Interior Minister Spies in NOS news. Another 24 on the other hand have been rumoured to be able to withstand this scenario. RTLZ reports that 20 of them have already had margin calls on their derivative products.

It could all lead to a viscous spiral downwards in the sector according to NRC Handelsblad. In fact, four directors of other Woningcorporations anonymously state in Trouw that Public Housing corporations are too lax in offering guarantees to each other through the Waarborgfonds. If the government or the CNV intervenes, it could alarm bankers who will call in all outstanding Vestia loans (NRC). This is not likely according to Vestia mouthpiece Ronald Florisson because the corporation now has enough funding on hand thanks to the winding down of the derivative contracts. Florisson is “very thankful” for the arranged backstop.

Vestia has jacked up the rents for new renters by 9 percent. Several opposition parties are not amused and are going to protest in Parliament this week.

Director Eric Staal left Vestia with a rather unusual golden handshake of 3.5 million euros, allegedly to secure his pension requirements. He had earned 500 thousand euros a year, two or three times the norm for directors of public and semi-public institutions. However this is all being investigated. The PVV (Partij Voor de Vrijheid) is demanding the seizure Staal's Caribbean villa.

Vestia's Advisory Board has recently confirmed that the current director is being paid according to the “Balkenende norm” set by government for the sector. These semi-public servants are allowed to earn 130 percent of a Government Minister's salary, which was 187 340 euros in 2011, plus expenses of 7560 euros. Despite the fact that the salaries of these directors of semi-public institutions have to be published, there are regular scandals in which they have been found to receive much more.

Another noteworthy example of things coming unhinged in the Public Housing sector involves a management company working for one of the corporations. These companies stand between buyers and renters of Woningcorporatie properties and do investment and development work in the sector.

It was reported on 23 February that management concern Redema had had the Owners' Associations savings accounts put into bank accounts in its own name and went bankrupt. It will cost 'hundreds' of families at least 1.5 million dollars. Since more and more public housing is being sold off instead of rented, the whole phenomenon of Owners' Associations is relatively new for many people.

So there is lots of uncertainty in Public Housing these days. The entire Public Housing Corporation sector has loans (I don't believe they issue bonds) outstanding of around 85 billion euros, ultimately guaranteed by government. According to writer Peter Verhaar at nuzakelijk.nl, Standard and Poors rates the sector “extremely strong”. Verhuur argues that the problems are largely due to Public Housing having undergone a fake privatization.

Undertheradar's goal is to give an impression of the state of economics, finance and politics in the Netherlands and compare it to its partners in the eurozone.

Gang of Four against François Hollande. The Eurozone is becoming brittle.

The cash settlement world of OTC derivatives is not investing, but gaming.  And the House sets the rules. 

In the neverending saga that is the Greek exchange offer we have a new and very important player: the head of the Greek debt management agency, Petros Christodoulou, who is now actively threatening any Greek hold out hedge funds against doing what is in their LPs' best interests (suing Greece and the EU and holding out for par recoveries - as discussed here), by using not only the now trite and idiotic Mutual Assured Destruction clause which only those stuck in 2008 believe is remotely credible, but by advising hedge funds (which are actively forming ad hoc hold out committees as we speak, just as we predicted 6 weeks ago) that "there is just no money for holdouts...We are prepared for legal challenges but the risk here is that people are trying to be too smart." Oh, so now if one does what is in their interest, and dare hold out against collectivist fascist interests, they are "trying to be smart." We wonder if Mr. Christodoulou learned such brute force negotiating tactics at one of his former employers: JP Morgan or Goldman That's right - as we wrote over two years ago, the man who is now negotiating for Greece's and Europe's life (because a failed PSI will not only trigger CDS, more importantly it will result in an out of control default of Greece and likely its exist from the Euro and the Eurozone - two things that Germany would be delighted to see) is a former employee of the two companies that just so happens are the co-chairmen of the US Treasury Borriwng Advisory Committee, or as we have also called it before, "The Supercommittee That Really Runs America." Is the pattern finally emerging?

European indices are trading in minor positive territory ahead of the North American open with tentative risk appetite. This follows news that the EU leaders have signed off on the EU fiscal pact, with German Chancellor Merkel commenting that 25 out of 27 countries have signed the agreement. The effects of the ECB’s LTRO continue to trickle through as the ECB announce they received record overnight deposits of EUR 777bln from European Banks. Little in the way of data today, however UK construction PMI released earlier in the session recorded the highest rate of increase in new orders for 21 months. In the energy complex, Brent futures have come down below USD 125.00 from yesterday’s highs with WTI echoing the movements, following market reaction to the confirmation that there were no acts of sabotage on Saudi pipelines yesterday, according to Saudi officials. EUR-led currency pairs are trading down on the session, and USD/JPY continues to climb, hitting a 9 month high earlier today at 81.72.

• Brazil declares new ‘currency war’ (FT)
• Postal Cuts Are Dead Letter in Congress (WSJ)
• China state banks to boost selected property loans (Reuters)
• ECB Says Overnight Deposits Surge to Record (Bloomberg)
• Van Rompuy confirmed for 2nd term as EU Council president (Reuters) - you mean dictator
• BOJ Shirakawa: Japan consumer prices to gradually rise (Reuters)
• IMF Says Threat of Sharp Global Slowdown Eased (Reuters)
• Eurozone delays half of Greece’s funds (FT)
• BOJ Openings Can Shape Monetary Policy (Bloomberg)

All you need to read.

This situation just can't last. Or can it?

Tax fraud is a national sport in both countries, yet the already reviled Germans are to reform Greece's tax collections—endearing them even more to the Greeks.