Eurozone

Going back to the annals of brokeback Europe, we learn that gold after all is money, after the G-20 demanded that EFSF (of €1 trillion "stability fund" yet can't raise €3 billion fame) be backstopped by none other than German gold. Per Reuters, "The Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (FAS) reported that Bundesbank reserves -- including foreign currency and gold -- would be used to increase Germany's contribution to the crisis fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) by more than 15 billion euros ($20 billion)." And who would be the recipient of said transfer? Why none other than the most insolvent of global hedge funds, the European Central Bank...There are three observations to be made here: i) when it comes to rescuing insolvent countries, Germany is delighted to sacrifice euros at the altar of the 50-some year old PIIGS retirement age; ask for its gold however, and things get ugly; ii) the Eurozone, the ECB and the EFSF are dead broke, insolvent and/or have zero credibility in the capital markets, and they know it and iii) due to the joint and several nature of the ECB's capital calls, while Germany may have had enough leverage to tell G-20 to shove it, the next countries in line, especially those which are already insolvent and will rely on the EFSF for their existence once the ECB's SMP program is finished, may not be that lucky, and in exchange for remaining in the eurozone, the forfeit could well be their gold.

At this moment, the headlines coming out of Greece are confusing and contradictory.  It isn't clear whether or not there will be a referendum or a vote of no confidence.  There may be a new leader, there may not be.  All we can do is wait for the next headline.  In the end I think there will be a referendum. You can't put the genie back in the bottle.  If a referendum is cancelled now, how will the people of Greece react? Maybe the No Eurozone plan won't be so compelling, but if people start taking a serious look at how it would work, it might not be so bad, and don't forget, the Eurozone plan isn't that great.  At some point, the citizens of the country need to make the decisions.  Electing politicians that can then be corrupted by Merkozy is not a long term solution. 

While only the market, and no one else, seems to have a grasp on the unknown unknowns in the Eurozone crisis, and has voted two toes up, despite really having no clue what is coming for Europe, here is a report from Exclusive-Analysis that summarizes the known unknowns, and comes up with a bleak conclusion: "We remain very doubtful that the relative optimism that has followed the EU summit will last. Last time, the 10th of October, following a Berlusconi announcement of austerity in the previous week, it took markets only a few days to distinguish between the detail of what was agreed and the more optimistic  principles that were announced." So as everyone scrambles to figure out what is still missing from European bailout plan, perhaps focus on what is already present, because if that is any indication, the Thursday rally is nothing but yet another confirmation of just how broken the market as a discounting mechanism truly is.

Real estate is Cyprus' national sport sponsored by dumb money—foreigners. But now it's unraveling the finances not only of expat owners but also of the banks and the government.

Anyone expecting that the events over the last 24 hours will have changed the persistently negative outlook of one of the original skeptics, will be disappointed. The SocGen strategist falls back to that old time-tested principle in complicated situations: math and logic. His summary of events released this morning: "The increasingly frenzied attempts of eurozone governments to persuade financial markets that they can draw a line under this crisis will ultimately fail – even if this week’s measures bring some short-term relief. I have minimal confidence that governments can turn this around within the confines of the eurozone project. You might be surprised though that I feel more bullish! Why? Both Dylan and I have come to the view that the ECB will be forced, by events, to monetise debt in the GIIPS and beyond. And if investors believe the governments in Spain and Italy are bust, then Germany, France, and not forgetting the UK and US, are far, far worse." To be sure, we may see a brief respite as we get the traditional post-TARP knee jerk reaction, only for markets to digest the sad reality of the situation in the proceeding 48 hours. And what will that imply? To Edwards, it will be nothing short of the realization, that even with €1 trillion (or more), the ECB will have no choice but to commence outright monetization as well. And the real question will be whether or not "Germany, will leave the eurozone after being over-ruled on the ECB (again!) and in the face of such monetary debauchery?"

To anyone who still has the energy to be lied to over and over by a bunch of corrupt, broke, pathologically lying bureucrats, feel free to tune in.

It begins:

• EURO ZONE PLANS TO LEVERAGE EFSF BAILOUT FUND "SEVERAL FOLD", FINANCE MINISTERS TO DECIDE DETAILS IN NOVEMBER -- DRAFT EURO ZONE SUMMIT STATEMENT
• DRAFT EURO ZONE STATEMENT MAKES NO MENTION AT THIS STAGE OF ITALY'S REQUIRED BUDGET STEPS
• NO AMOUNTS SET FOR BANK RECAPITALIZATIONS

In other news, there will be absolutely nothing actionable following today's "ground-breaking" summit. There will also be nothing at all after the Cannes statement. Or any time after. Why? Simple - there is nothing that Europe can propose in a universe in which 2+2=4 that resolves its problems.

While the US may have its "committee" decision to every problem in the world, Europe has the "summit meeting" which in the past would kiss and make everything better. No longer. As the following chart from Reuters indicates, annotating the relentless rise in Italian yields (which have about 100 bps in buffer from full out Eurozone collapse: if the 10 Year BTP hits 7.00% it's game over), the half life of the mere meeting in terms of favorable impact is now negligible and in fact, negative. Just like BOJ (and, some would add, Fed) interventions in the market now do more harm than good, so hollow Eurozone meetings without any actual resolution, simply make the Eurozone troubles that much more acute. Keep a close eye on the BTPs. They are already at 6% following last week's tumble first documented on Zero Hedge. If the price drops that much more, that will be it for the EMU experiment.

Stocks are not the only thing to surge since the October 3 lows. As the chart below shows, yields (and spreads to Bunds) of all Eurozone bonds, both in the core and the periphery, have followed the equity Risk On sentiment diligently (if inversely), and are now at the widest they have been in the past 3 weeks. In other words, contrary to expectations of a mitigation in sovereign risk exhibited by a drop in spreads or yields, or both, following the CDS ban, we have seen precisely the opposite as sovereign risk has soared. But at least it has been accompanied by what continues to be an epic short squeeze, and has thus been masked by the overall market noise. In fact, one can make the argument that in many ways we are seeing the same response that we saw back in the US in advance of various monetization episodes, as it is becoming increasingly clear that it is the sovereigns themselves that are the risky assets, while corporates across the board must be saved at all costs by the ECB, the Fed or both. To purists wondering how it is possible to have a risk transfer of this magnitude in a continent in which the central bank does not have the same market levitation capabilities as the Fed (the ECB essentially needs a Bundestag approval for all its decisions going forward) we wish we had some insight.

Different views for next week....

But, but, but...

• France's Sarkozy says Euro zone deal talks stuck over relations between EFSF and ECB according to centre right legislators - RTRS

And the scramble:

• France's Sarkozy ready to travel to Berlin this afternoon to make progress on Euro-zone deal according to MPs - RTRS

Time for the counterrumor from whatever British tabloid has not discredited itself

Just when we thought we had run out of analogies to describe the daily stupidity in Europe, here comes UBS' senior economic advisor George Magnus who reminds us that that quintessential modern morality tale for lost causes, Monty Python, still has at least one application, in its embodiment of all that is wrong with Europe as it searches for the Holy Grail ofa Hollywood ending. To wit: "Monty Python and the Holy Grail provides a nice allegory for the search by our contemporary European knights of the euro-table for the Holy Grail of stabilising and strengthening the Eurosystem. In the movie, of course, the search was terminated abruptly by farce. In the Eurozone, it continues, and is set to reach its own Bridge of Death in the next two weeks." Unfortunately, following a moment of levity, things get serious again: "The plan soon to be announced by Euro-leaders will most likely reflect elements of much of what has been urged in recent months. Expectations are running high, recently encouraged also by reports that major emerging markets are looking to bolster the IMF’s existing lending capacity of $390 billion, specifically so it could provide additional credit lines to the Euro Area. Several major developed markets are not persuaded this is necessary or desirable, though some announcement about new stand-by credit lines is likely. We shall see what transpires soon enough....The immediate caveat is that the plan may disappoint financial markets if it seems weak or unwieldy, or provides for sovereign guarantees that don’t seem credible or likely to be honoured, or doesn’t provide for guarantees from the ECB, which is the only agency that is a credible provider. Markets may also fear adverse unintended consequences, for example, proposals to strengthen bank capital ratios that banks try to meet by accelerating the shrinkage of balance sheets. This would deepen the Eurozone’s growth crisis, and make higher capital ratio goals retreat ever further into the distance." Of course, this would merely once again shift the burden of responsibility from the legislative body, whatever that may be in Europe, to the monetary, and make life for the new Goldman Sachs head of the ECB heaven on earth, as he undoes years of JCT "prudence" and launches in the biggest money printing experiment ever. But we are getting ahead of ourselves.

Only the most drunk on hopium (and Absinthe) among us can harbor any doubt that the eurozone, and hence the common monetary union currency the zEURq.bb, can survive without a dramatic change in the current European monetary (and fiscal) structure and an unprecedented overhaul to the status quo. But it can be done: after all there are numerous case studies across history, when various fiat monetary unions either succeeded or failed. Ironically, according to a just released report by UBS' monetary expert Stephane Deo (which we will discuss more later), three of the better such examples ironically can be traced to none other than the good old United States, which, and this may come as a surprise to some of our readers, had several failed monetary union regimes in the past before it finally arrived on the current stable (relatively speaking) "dollar" solution. So here, courtesy of UBS, are the lessons that Europe can hopefully learn (once again) from America's bitter experience in this matter. Because the alternative to success is failure (more on that shortly), and as UBS notes, "The economic and political consequences of a monetary union break up are also so severe as to deter all but the most determined – or to deter all but those already suffering extraordinary economic distress (occasioned by war or by depression)." So without further ado...

Morgan Stanley has released "A panorama of the European Debt system" - easily the most comprehensive summary analysis (in 83 pages) of the Eurozone. To wit from the authors: "In this primer, we have compiled the key background information and statistics relevant to the context in which the European debt markets operate, encompassing Europe’s Institutional Framework, the ECB and the banking system, as well as sovereign, corporate and household debt, both in aggregate and by country. The compilation reflects the most frequently asked questions our economics and strategy teams receive from clients globally." Anyone who has ever had questions or been generaly curious about the uber-dysfuctional European debt system, and that would be everyone, especially the ECB, must read this document, if nothing else for the plethora of pretty charts.

Either the YesMen have infiltrated Italy's biggest, and most undercapitalied, bank, or the stress of constant, repeated lying and prevarication has finally gotten to the very people who know their livelihoods hang by a thread, and the second the great ponzi is unwound their jobs, careers, and entire way of life will be gone. Such as the head of UniCredit global securities Attila Szalay-Berzeviczy, and former Chairman of the Hungarian stock exchange, who has written an unbelievable oped in the Hungarian portal Index.hu which, frankly, make Alessio "BBC Trader" Rastani's provocative speech seem like a bedtime story. Only this time one can't scapegoat Szalay-Berzeviczy "naivete" on inexperience or the desire to gain public prominence. If someone knows the truth, it is the guy at the top of UniCredit, which we expect to promptly trade limit down once we hit print. Among the stunning allegations (stunning in that an actual banker dares to tell the truth) are the following: "the euro is “practically dead” and Europe faces a financial earthquake from a Greek default"... “The euro is beyond rescue”... “The only remaining question is how many days the hopeless rearguard action of European governments and the European Central Bank can keep up Greece’s spirits.”...."A Greek default will trigger an immediate “magnitude 10” earthquake across Europe."..."Holders of Greek government bonds will have to write off their entire investment, the southern European nation will stop paying salaries and pensions and automated teller machines in the country will empty “within minutes.” In other words: welcome to the Apocalypse...