Eurozone

Frontrunning: May 31

  • Trump Faces Instability as Russia Probe Expands to Inner Circle (WSJ)
  • Huge bomb in sewage tanker kills at least 80, wounds hundreds in Afghan capital (Reuters)
  • Russia fires cruise missiles at Islamic State targets from Mediterranean (Reuters)
  • Trump blasts Russia probe, urges testimony from former adviser Page (Reuters)
  • Activist probing factories making Ivanka Trump shoes in China arrested (Reuters)

Quiet Month End Markets Hide "Below The Surface" Fireworks

It has been another quiet session for global equity markets, with S&P futures flat, as are European and Asian stocks, which is perhaps odd, as there was quite a bit of newsflow and, in the case of China, outright fireworks.

In Watershed Event, Europe Unveils Plan To Securitize Sovereign Debt

In a watershed event for the European - and global - bond markets, Brussels is pressing for sovereign debt from across the eurozone to be "bundled into a new financial instrument and sold to investors as part of a proposal to strengthen the single currency area."  Call it securitized sovereign debt.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: US Payrolls; Eurozone Inflation And Fed Speakers

Focus in this holiday-shortened week will turn to US data, especially NFP, Fed speakers and Eurozone inflation. UK PMIs will also draw attention as elections approach. We also get GDP data from Canada, Sweden and Switzerland. On Monday, Euro FX and bond markets will be on Mario Draghi alert on Monday as the ECB president speaks to the European parliament.

Catalonia Threatens Spain With "Financial Bloodbath"

Catalonia’s independence would set off Spain’s debt time-bomb... It would mean the loss of 25-30% of Spain’s gross domestic product (GDP), says Spain’s Minister of the Economy, Luis de Guindos. And that’s something the government “will never let happen.”

Frontrunning: May 25

  • World stocks hit record after Fed minutes (Reuters)
  • OPEC extends oil output cut by nine months to fight glut (Reuters)
  • Father and Brother of Manchester Bomber Arrested in Libya (BBG)
  • In testing Montana vote for Trump, Republican caught up in brawl (Reuters)
  • NATO to Take New Counterterrorism Measures (WSJ)

S&P Futs Near All Time High On Strong Euro Data; Oil Drops On Trump's SPR Sale Plans

S&P futures rose alongside European stocks as Asian shares posted modest declines. The euro set a new six-month high and European bourses rose as PMI data from Germany and France signaled that the ECB will have to tighten soon as Europe's recovery remains on track, with the German Ifo business confidence printing at the highest level on record, and hinting at a GDP print in the 5% range.

BofA Finally Asks "Is The Tech Bubble Happening Again?"

"US growth stocks just surpassed 2000 “bubble” highs vs global value stocks; data on valuation, flows, and the relationship between equities and bond yields are all good clues that a speculative overshoot has begun; there are nascent signs we are in the very early stages of an overshoot."

Key Events In The Coming Week: FOMC Minutes, GDP, BOC, OPEC And More

The key economic releases this week are the durable goods report and Q1 GDP revision on Friday. The minutes of the May FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday at 2PM. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week

Trumpquake: Futures Wipe Out Month's Gains In One Session, VIX Spikes

Growing concerns over the turmoil engulfing President Donald Trump’s administration weighed on risk appetite, sending global stocks and US futures lower, pressuring the dollar while boosting yen, gold and VIX. The sharp drop has seen the gains over the past month wiped out in one session.