Eurozone

"A Barrage Of Fed Speakers": The Key Events In The Coming Very Busy Week

As markets continue to digest the implications of the US election outcome, there is a host of data and Central Bank communication adding to the running narrative with Fed speakers appearing on every single day of the week. In addition to barrage of daily Fed speakers, including Chair Yellen, we get US inflation data, retail sales, housing data, empire manufacturing, industrial production and the Philly Fed.

'Italeave' Looms As Italian Crisis Indicator Spikes To Record High After Trump Win

"The US election will help all those who have not had the courage to come out and say 'I will vote No'," proclaimed one of Italian PM Renzi's opponents as The FT reports the centre-left prime minister’s referendum on change is threatened by the global populist wave. Even before the US election, he faced a struggle to secure victory in the referendum, with most polls tilting in favor of voting 'No', albeit with many undecided voters, but opponents claim "many undecided voters in the polling booth will say ‘No No No’, just like Trump voters."

Key Events In The Coming Presidential Election Week

The US election this Tuesday is the main focus of the week. The key economic release this week is University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. 

Global Stocks Drop; Futures Hints At Longest Losing Streak Since December 1980

With yesterday's, 8th consecutive decline for the S&P 500, the US equity market has now posted the longest losing streak since October 2008; and should we close payrolls Friday day with another negative print, it would be the longest negative streak since December 1980. Putting the recent slide in context, stocks are now down compared to a year ago, and are unchanged since December 2014.

US Futures Flat, Rebound From Session Lows On Rising Election Jitters

Asian stocks, S&P futures and European shares trade flat as a tightening race for the U.S. presidency spurs demand for haven assets including the yen while weighing on stocks and Mexico’s peso. A turbulent overnight session saw some early risk off following the plunge in Facebook shares and the Fox News report that an FBI probe into the Clinton foundation may lead to a "likely indictment."

Is ECB 'Omnipotence' "Too Powerful For Any Democracy To Abide"?

The failure of elected politicians to act appropriately has turned central banks into the “only game in town.” And this is turning out to be less a boon to their prestige than a threat to their independence. The ECB, especially, is set to face growing pushback against its independent status, regardless of whether it manages to “save” the EMU. After all, it would have to be quite powerful to succeed – too powerful for any democracy to abide.

Italy Seen More Likely To Exit Eurozone Than Greece; Italian Bond Yields Surge

In an unexpected reversal of (mis)fortune, this morning Sentix writes that the Eurocrisis creeps back into the heads of the investors in a new way: it is no longer Greece, but Italy which is now the country that is most likely to leave the Eurozone within the year from the perspective of the more than 1,000 investors surveyed. "This development underscores the importance of the referendum to the Constitution in Italy on December, 4th."

The Vexed Question Of The Dollar

There is little doubt that the rapid expansion of both dollar-denominated debt and monetary quantities since the financial crisis will lead us into a currency crisis. We just don’t know when, and the dollar is not alone. While the monetary role of gold in the future has yet to be determined by China, and it will be China or the markets that make the decision, for the moment it can be regarded as the ultimate insurance against global currency failure.