News That Matters
A review of the technical condition of the dollar in the days leading up to the FOMC meeting announcement.
What the pundits attempt to do is have you focus on the forest from an inch away. While the endless optimism of the talking-heads, most recently that the selloff in developed equity markets has gone too far, each offering up various 'narrative' reasons to support their claim; simply put, they are full of tragic flaws. Allow us to color-code this for all those market "pros" and PhD "economists" who haven't been able to follow the premise over the past several months...
The lack of leadership to tackle this clear and present danger to Europe's future is truly concerning. Both the migrants and the Europeans might be worse off as a result.
And monetary policies will be “ineffective”: Natixis
- Compare: S&P 500 Futures Advance After U.S. Stocks Ignored Global Rally (BBG)
- And contrast: Global Stock Rally Grinds to a Halt (BBG)
- And be very confused: Global Stocks Lower on U.S. Interest Rate Uncertainty (WSJ)
- Hilsenrath: Fed Wavers on September Rate Rise (WSJ)
- Time for more QE: Abe Adviser Says Next Month Good Opportunity for BOJ Easing (BBG)
- Brazil downgraded to junk rating by S&P, deepening woes (Reuters)
- Kiwi dollar tumbles after New Zealand cuts interest rates (Reuters)
Bank profitability will remain under pressure for some time to come in light of the new capital regulations currently in the works. This will make it more difficult for banks to generate new capital internally, so they will have to tap the capital markets and dilute their shareholders further. It is no wonder that bank stocks remain way below the valuations they once commanded (we actually wouldn’t touch these stocks with a ten-foot pole). From a wider economic perspective, the new capital regulations are rendering banks moderately safer for depositors (as long as the markets don’t lose faith in government debt that is), but they also contribute to their ongoing “zombification”. Bank lending is going to remain subdued. This wouldn’t represent a big problem, if not for the fact that it is likely to provoke even more government activism.
"We believe a global recession scenario has become the most likely global macroeconomic scenario for the next two years or so. Helicopter money drops would be the best instrument to tackle a downturn in all DMs. We expect to see QE #N, where N could become a large integer, as part of the monetary policy response in the US and the UK, and QEE2 in Japan."
- Global stocks rally as investors scent fresh stimulus (Reuters)
- Japan's Nikkei 225 Rises 7.7% for Biggest Gain Since October 2008 (BBG)
- China's Stocks Advance for Second Day Amid Stimulus Speculation (BBG)
- Abe Pledges Corporate Tax Cut as Investments Slump (BBG)
- U.S. to shift 50 staff to boost office handling Clinton emails (Reuters)
- Chinese Premier Li Keqiang Says China Doesn't Want a Currency War (BBG)
- One Thing China Got Right (BBG)
Overnight we got an unexpected call from perpetual optimist JPMorgan (yes, we all miss Tom Lee), which released a report by Mislav Matejka warning that it is not "time to re-enter the US" because "upside is limited at this stage of cycle." To wit: "some of the longer term cycle signals are increasingly worrying, with rising risk that US equities start making sustained losses next year. At best, the upside potential for the US remains limited, in our view." Still, just like BofA, JPM felt the need to hedge: "too early to position for recession."
News That Matters
What is the reason for the drop? Well, one can believe the ECB's stated explanation which is that due to European summer vacations, activity in Europe has ground to a halt. Of course, this would suggest that monetization in the Eurozone is continent on managers' summer vacation plans, which is probably an even more troubling explanation of ECB activity bottlenecks than what may be really going on in Europe. The alternative? As we noted over the weekend when we reported that now even the IMF is discussing the upcoming limits to BOJ QE as a result of sellers running out of BOJs to hand over to the BOJ, the same may be taking place in Europe
Logically, the massive liquidation of USD assets by China and other emerging market central banks should put upward pressure on UST yields and will, all else equal, work at cross purposes with DM central bank QE. But all else is never really equal...
The centrally-planned house of cards is finally starting to shake uncontrollably.
Banks in the US and Europe are trying to develop a cashless transactions system. The concept is to establish a comprehensive ledger for a business or a person that records everything received and spent, and all of the assets held – mortgages, investment portfolios, debts, contractual financial obligations, and anything else of market value. There would be no need for cash because the ledger would tell you and anyone you were considering a transaction with how much is available and would be transactable at any specific moment. This is not a dreamy idea. Blythe Masters is leading a new business effort to develop a universal cashless system. Not only is she gathering significant investor interest, but the Federal Reserve and various US Government agencies have become keenly interested in the potential usefulness and efficiencies of a universal cashless system