Eurozone

And does it really want to?

"If no agreement is reached on Monday, then the ECB will have little reason to show further flexibility and it will likely freeze its ELA limit on Greek banks. As a result capital controls will become almost inevitable after Monday."

As we move toward the second half of 2015, signs of financial turmoil are appearing all over the globe. Slowly but surely, we are starting to see the smart money head for the exits. As one Swedish fund manager put it recently, everyone wants “to avoid being caught on the wrong side of markets once the herd realizes stocks are over-valued“.

A Greek exit from the euro would change everything. The greatest change being simply doubt and fear regarding the outlook for other vulnerable EU nations, EU banks and the EU banking and financial system. We discuss short and long term considerations, best and case outcomes, and wealth preservation strategies.

The troika of Greek creditors has gone into full-frontal morals-be-damned attack mode. This has turned into the kind of economic warfare one would expect to see between sworn and lethal enemies, that the US would gladly use against Russia for instance, but not between partners in a union founded on principles based entirely and exclusively on being mutually beneficial to everyone involved. And all EU nations should understand by now that this is not about Greece anymore, it’s about all of them.

History tells us two related facts. Central banks are always defeated by markets in the end, and central bankers have a touching faith that next time they will retain control over markets. But if we accept the lessons of history, we must dismiss complacency over systemic risk to the financial system. We can go even further, and begin to expect that of all the risks that will eventually trigger a widely expected financial crisis, it will be an old-fashioned bear market in bonds.

The troika is tightening the screws on Greece and its ailing banks. With deposit flight running above €1 billion per day, the ECB may look to tie future ELA cap increases to austerity concessions in a move that would appear to support Yanis Varoufakis' implicit suggestion that the troika is colluding to exploit deposit outflows to force political change in Athens.

• Greek PM optimistic on debt deal as banks bleed (Reuters)
• Greek central bank chief says banking system stable (Kathimerini)
• ECB Said to Confer on Emergency Greek Aid Amid Cash Flight (BBG)
• More tax "avoidance": Citigroup to shift European retail banking HQ to Dublin (Reuters)
• Florist's tip led police to Charleston shooting suspect (USAToday)
• Asian shares edge higher on Fed caution, China sell-off intensifies (Reuters)
• Toyota in damage control mode after American exec arrested (Reuters)
• Venezuela Oil Loans Go Awry for China (WSJ)

European shares remain higher, close to intraday highs, with the autos and travel & leisure sectors outperforming and basic resources, utilities underperforming. Meeting of finance officials to reach a deal over Greek aid ended in frustration, forcing leaders to call for an emergency summit for Monday. ECB plans to hold an emergency session of its Governing Council on Friday to discuss a deterioration in liquidity at Greek banks, three people familiar said. German airwave auction raises $5.7b to top 2010 sale. Bank of Japan leaves monetary policy unchanged as forecast. Shanghai Composite Index capped its worst weekly decline in seven years.

“We have both accumulated buffers and gold currency reserves, and we have introduced a floating currency exchange rate in order to absorb various shocks,” Nabiullina said.

European creditors will reportedly consider writing down their Greek debt in order to get the IMF back to the table and make the country's long-term prospects more sustainable. Meanwhile, Greeks are taking to the streets and one portfolio manager warns of anarchy. 

• WSJ urges Fed to blow uberest of all bubbles: Memo to Fed: Let the Economy Overheat (WSJ)
• Gunman at large after killing nine at black South Carolina church (Reuters)
• Nine Dead in Charleston Shooting Labeled a 'Hate Crime' (BBG)
• Hong Kong Votes Down Beijing-Backed Election Plan (WSJ)
• Greece Has Already Cost Investors $897 Billion This Year (BBG)
• Merkel Maintains Tough Stance on Greece as Deadline Looms (WSJ)
• Small U.S. frackers face extinction amid drilling drought (Reuters)
• Brian Williams to Stay at NBC, but Lester Holt Will Be Anchor (WSJ)

"Greece not only does not have the ability to pay this debt, but also should not pay this debt first and foremost because the debt emerging from the Troika’s arrangements is a direct infringement on the fundamental human rights of the residents of Greece. Hence, we came to the conclusion that Greece should not pay this debt because it is illegal, illegitimate, and odious."

The tension in the Eurosystem is getting unbearable...

As the war of words between Athens and Brussels reaches a fever pitch ahead of Thursday's Eurogroup meeting, the Bank of Greece has made a plea to both sides as capital controls and a "Lehman Weekend" loom. "A manageable debt crisis, as the one that we are currently addressing with the help of our partners, would snowball into an uncontrollable crisis, with great risks for the banking system and financial stability. An exit from the euro would only compound the already adverse environment, as the ensuing acute exchange rate crisis would send inflation soaring.