Eurozone

Julian Brigden: "This Is What The 'Armageddon Scenario' For Markets Looks Like"

"My base case is always been that you don't get to the Armageddon scenario with weak data. You actually get to the Armageddon scenario when you actually get strong data. The end game for markets, the most dangerous toxic scenario for markets comes when you've got vastly inflated prices and central banks actually need to hike. "

After Brexit, 9 Reasons To Be Bullish On Great Britain

Today Mrs. May finally officially announced Brexit and kicked-off the process of divorce from the EU. A disaster for Britain, according to officials in Brussels, Berlin and Paris. Really? Whenever there is broad consensus it is worthwhile to challenge it.

Global Stocks Slide, S&P Futures Tumble Below 50DMA As "Trump Trade" Collapses

Global stocks are lower across the board to start the week, as concerns about Trump's administration to pull off a material tax reform plan finally emerge, pressuring S&P futures some 20 points lower this morning, following European and Asian shares lower, while crude oil prices fall unable to find support in this weekend's OPEC meeting in Kuwait where a committee recommended to extend oil production cuts by another 6 months.

Michael Hudson: Trump Is Obama's Legacy - Is This The End Of The Democratic Party?

"...the Democrats will continue to pose as the Lesser Evil party not really in terms of policy, but simply ad hominum. They will merely repeat Hillary’s campaign stance: They are not Trump... having lost its ability to pose as the party of labor and the middle class; and firmly controlled by Wall Street and California billionaires, the DNC strategy of identity politics encourages any identity except that of wage earners..."

All Eyes On Washington: US Futures Rise On Hope Healthcare Vote Will Pass

Asian shares and S&P futures rose on optimism that today's rescheduled U.S. vote on health care will pass following Trump's Ultimatum to the Freedom Caucus. European stocks gave up some of Thursday’s gains, falling for the fourth time in five days, and moving further away from a 15-month high reached a week ago while the yen weakened for the first time in nine days.

Italy Falls Out Of Love With The Euro: Beppe Grillo Resurgent In The Polls

Recent polls for Italian politicians supporting the eurozone and EU have collapsed. Pro-Europe polls are highly likely to get worse as a  further splintering of Matteo Renzi’s PD party takes place. It is not out of question for Beppe Grillo’s eurosceptic Five Star Movement (M5S) party to achieve an absolute majority in the next election...

Will Thursday's Final TLTRO Finally Spark Carry Trades?

On Thursday, the ECB will hold its fourth tender under the TLTRO-II (Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations) programme. A large take-up is expected. A poll published by Reuters had a  median forecast of EUR 125bn net borrowing, with estimates as high as EUR 300bn. From a rates perspective, what matters is whether these funds will trigger flows into the bond or swap markets as banks set up carry trades.

Dijsselbloem Must Go, But That Solves Nothing

The EU in its present form cannot continue, and any options that would have allowed reforming it have been closed off due to its very structure. That real problem is that people don’t get to vote for who controls Brussels. So even if Dijsselbloem is ousted, the powers that be, Germany, Holland, Finland, Austria, will simply appoint another one of their pawns in his place. 

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the new home sales report on Thursday and the durable goods report on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Yellen on Thursday.