Eurozone

With every passing day, it becomes clearer and clearer the Cyprus deposit confiscation "news" was the most unsurprising outcome for the nation's financial system and was known by virtually everyone on the ground days and weeks in advance: first it was disclosed that Russians had been pulling their  money, then it was suggested the president himself had made sure some €21 million of his family's money was parked safely in London, then we showed a massive surge in Cyprus deposit outflows in February, and now the latest news is that a list of 132 companies and individuals has emerged who withdrew their €-denominated deposits in the two weeks from March 1 to March 15, among which the previously noted company Loutsios & Sons which is alleged to have ties with the current Cypriot president Anastasiadis.

• Goldman's Mario Draghi convinced Italy president Napolitano not to resign (Reuters)
• David Stockman Warns of Crash Of Fed-Fueled Bubble Economy (BBG)
• Cyprian archbishop calls on Central Bank's head, Finance Minister to resign (Voice of Russia)
• Cyprus Parliament President Says Country Should Exit Eurozone (Zero Hedge)
• Cyprus seeks to find people behind bank crisis (FT)
• Argentina sticks to its guns over holdout creditor payments (FT)
• 40% of all trading is now done in dark pools and off exchanges (NYT)
• Sequester Impact Remains Elusive (WSJ)
• China’s Home Prices Increase Most in 26 Months, SouFun Says (BBG)
• Beijing, Shanghai Add to Home Curbs as China Acts to Cool Market (BBG)
• Two men die in Shanghai in first human cases of bird flu strain (SCMP)
• Economics will catch up with the euro  (FT)
• How much gold is there in the world? (BBC)
• Fannie Mae Regulator Sets No-Doc Modifications for Borrowers (BBG)

With Europe and the UK closed today, it was unclear if the traditional overnight futures levitation would take place as scheduled. To nobody's big surprise, it did, driven as usual by the EURUSD, which rose from an overnight low in the mid 1.27s following news that the Cypriot parliament head wanted to pull his country out of the Eurozone as reported here, but more importantly as that second ramp funding carry pair of choice, the USDJPY fell to the lowest in a month following yet another miss in the Japan Tankan big manufacturer index, touching under 93.30 for the first time since March 6, pushing the Nikkei 225 lower by over 2% - has the magic of Japanese rhetoric finally worn off and is the market finally demanding action instead of hollow promises, threats and simply, words? In China we got a miss in the official PMI data setting up yet another Schrodinger PMI split in Chinese economic growth indicators where the official details once again deteriorating while those tracked by HSBC/Markit are mysteriously improving. Also in Asia, rumblings out of South Korea, which continues to miss on key export and economic growth indicators, that it should cut rates mean the export-driven country is on the verge of joining the global currency warfare at which point the free Japanese lunch is over.

After being told that the Cypriot business model was broken, the ever-resilient people of this 'storm in a teacup' island have, by all appearances, taken up their entrepreneurial sickles to make hay while the Troika sun shines. As the FT reports, the hunt is on for many Cypriot bank account holders to find ways to circumnavigate the new Draconian capital controls - and get their money off the island. It seems that this 'need' is being addressed by friendly 'unidentified' locals who are willing to help transfer money across the border (since there is a EUR3,000 limit) for a mere 20% upfront fee. "There are some dubious capital outflows out of Cyprus as we speak," one senior Eurozone official noted, "and... not only Russians." At least three people have been stopped attempting to cross the border with more than EUR 200,000 in cash on their person - their money was confiscated.

In summary:

Total US Currency in circulation (i.e., all US Dollars out there): $1,102 billion (source)
Total Deposits in US Commercial Banks: $9,294 billion (source)

Which means that if (and we are not saying it will) a Cyprus-style fiasco were to occur in the US, and those $9.3 trillion in total deposits seek to obtain
"physical representation" in the form of actual currency (i.e., a systemic bank run), just as all those lining up in front of Cypriot ATMs are desperate to do each and every day when they have a €300 limit on physical cash withdrawals, there will be a roughly 88% haircut for every single dollar that US savers believe is "safe" in the bank.

There are many lessons and implications from the Cypriot crisis (we list 25 here). Among the most important is that conditionality is back, energetically, which is very important when considering the circumstances under which other, bigger, countries might access ESM or OMT. We believe, like BNP's James Mortimer-Lee, that the market has been too complacent, seeing OMT and “whatever it takes” as unconditional – that’s wrong. A second lesson is that a harsher line is being taken by the core. This partly reflects more effective firewalls, so that core countries are more willing to “burn” the private sector, where doing so does not represent a serious systemic risk. Cyprus may not be a template, but we have seen enough to glimpse what the new pan eurozone bank resolution system could look like. Risk for certain classes of stakeholders in banks has risen. We are a long way from seeing the eurozone crisis resolved.

It's not just Cyprus, and no - it's not just Canada either. I'm preparing a list of specific banks that I have 1st hand knowledge that would prevent me from keeping my money in them. Get "Cyprus'd"!!!

No, it wasn't Ben Bernanke or Alan Greenspan, it wasn't Jean-Claude Trichet or his successor Mario Draghi, nor was it Mervyn King, Carney, Shirakawa, or Hildebrand. The answer, as shocking as it may sound, was...

In one of a few early hints that Europe might surprise the world with its Cyprus bailout, on February 10th the Financial Times leaked the content of a secret EU memo. It reported that bank depositor haircuts were among three options being considered to reduce bailout costs. And the memo also warned ominously that “such drastic action could restart contagion in eurozone financial markets.” Clearly, policymakers decided to take their chances. And now we’re living through the contagion that the memo’s authors predicted. But what exactly does that mean? Sure, we can see volatility in asset prices, but how long will it last? Some pundits say it’ll blow over like a late afternoon shower on an otherwise sunny day. I disagree. I’ll suggest there’s more to it than rising market volatility and that we should take a closer look at the meaning of contagion. I’ll argue there are three different types at work today: vanilla contagion, latent contagion and stealth contagion. And when you add up the three effects, Cyprus will have a bigger global impact than many expect.

After reading this memo from the Central Bank of Cyprus sent to bank CEOs on February 11, arguably to put them at ease, all we can say is "Oooops"...

Gold rose 1.1% in March, its first monthly rise in six. 

For the quarter, gold was 4.5% lower in dollar terms and 1.4% lower in euros. However, signalling that the demise of gold is greatly exaggerated, gold is 3.7% higher in Japanese yen and 2.6% higher in sterling.

As one astute financial journalist said to me “ ‘cash in the bank’ doesn’t have quite the same ring to it anymore.”

Far from being a unique situation, the fragile exposure of unsecured depositors across the Euro zone is the norm; and their fragility was further increased in the last twelve months thanks to policies created by the same authorities who now refuse to honor their promise of a banking union, and instead impose capital controls, which have effectively destroyed any credibility on the safety of capital in the Euro zone. However, even if one accepts my view, the unintended outcome begs the following question: Why was there cheap money available for subordinated debt holders to cash out, but there is none now to protect the savings of depositors?

The “Cyprus deal” as it has been widely referred to in the media may mark the next to last act in the the slow motion collapse of fractional-reserve banking that began with the implosion of the savings-and-loan industry in the U.S. in the late 1980s. The happy result will be that depositors, both insured and uninsured, in Europe and throughout the world will become much more cautious or even suspicious in dealing with fractional-reserve banks. They will be poised to grab their money and run at the slightest sign or rumor of instability. This will induce banks to radically alter the sources of the funds they raise to finance loans and investments, moving away from deposit and toward equity and bond financing.

Many were wondering what Russia's response to Germany's deposit confiscation drill in Cyprus would be. The confusion was moderated somewhat after it was uncovered that the very Russians who were supposed to be punished, have been able to withdraw some or most of their Cyprus-based cash either before the Cyprus D(eposit Confiscation)-Day or during the capital controlled blackout using various disclosed loopholes. Yet that doesn't mean that Putin would avoid this opportunity to give the "developed world" and his closest neighbors a quick lesson in realpolitik. After all, who better than a former KGB agent understands that one should never let a crisis go to waste. Sure enough, today at 4 am, in a very surprising move, Puitin ordered the launch of large-scale Russian military exercises in the Black Sea region in a move which according to Reuters "may create tensions with Russia's post-Soviet neighbors Ukraine and Georgia." Of course, it may create tensions with our island nations reachable by the Russian naval fleet, such as Cyprus, which would naturally mean tensions with the same European (read German) forces who structured the entire Cypriot bail in.

As we noted yesterday, Slovenia appears the inevitable next player set to experience the non-template of uninsured depositor bail-ins and the good-bank-bad-bank solution that was uniquely applied to Cyprus. However, global investors should rest assured as this miracle of modern financial engineering will not be a detriment to the nations as the Slovenian banks will be internally recapitalized (in the latest proposal) by a government guarantee. Simply put, in the world of European accounting idiocy, Reuters reports "this would not result in an immediate spike in the government's debt level, because the authorities would initially provide banks with guarantees rather than newly issued securities." Which leaves us asking, just how much is a one-week-old Slovenian government's guarantee worth in real money? And why didn't the Cypriot government just 'promise' to do 'whatever it takes' to support their banks' bad assets? Of course the chance of the bailout happening just surged:

• *SLOVENIA WON'T NEED BAILOUT, ECB'S KRANJEC SAYS