- Europe shares set for worst week of 2015 (Reuters)
- Jobs Report Not Likely to Trigger June Rate Hike (Hilsenrath)
- U.S. jobs market seen firming despite lackluster growth (Reuters)
- Gross Says Bond Rout Scary as Hell Even Without Bear Market (BBG)
- Apple Is the New Pimco, and Tim Cook Is the New King of Bonds (BBG), which ZH said in 2013
- In 'year of Apple Pay', many top retailers remain skeptical (Reuters)
- OPEC Nations Signal Few Prospects for Oil-Production Change (BBG)
- China regulator says amending rules on margin trading, short selling (Reuters)
Perhaps the most disturbing, and factual (unlike the IMF's forecast of Greek 2022 debt/GDP), finding is that unemployment in the OECD region has fallen only 1 per cent since its 2010 peak. In other words, by 2016, the group warned, 40 million people will be out of work, 7.5 million more than immediately before the crisis. 40 million angry people, with little hope of professional realization and lots of free time. Is it surprising why in recent months not a day passes without some mass violence event breaking out somewhere in the world.
While hope has long been dismissed as a strategy among the investing public, for game-theory expert (and Greek FinMin) Yanis Varoufakis, "hope" appears to be all he has left. Reflecting on James Byrnes 1946 speech, Varoufakis explains a “Speech of Hope” for Greece would make all the difference now – not only for us, but also for our creditors, as our renaissance would terminate the default risk.
Most commentary still appears predicated on the idea that there will be some last-minute deal - either because the creditors will back down and give Greece some more money without requiring it to be paid back or because the Greek government will back down if it understands that not doing so would ultimately mean leaving the euro. On the other hand, some believe neither side is particularly interested in achieving a deal.
There is no nuance to what I'm going to say: interest rates are pushing higher, and this is going to be a millstone around the neck of the world economy.
As Hope Lifts Athens Stocks, German Vice Chancelleor Warns Of "Gigantic Consequences" If Greek Talks FailSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/03/2015 09:03 -0400
Despite all the reassurances by various leaders that any Grexit or Greek bankruptcy would be 'contained', Sigmar Gabriel - vice-chancellor and economic minister of Germany's SPD party - unleashed some uncomfortable truthiness yesterday. With Greek stocks up almost 5% today as hope springs eternal, Gabriel warned of nothing less than “gigantic consequences” for Europe in case of a Greek bankruptcy.
After leaving policy unchanged, Mario Draghi takes questions on PSPP effects, bond market volatility, Greece, inflation, and QE flexibility.
- ECB CUTS ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST FOR 2017 TO 2% VS 2.1%
- DRAGHI: ECB KEEPS INFLATION FORECASTS UNCHANGED FOR 2016, 2017
This month could be quite a spectacular one.......
Albert Edwards: Yen Collapse Will Lead To "New Round Of Currency Turmoil", Deflation In US And EurozoneSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/02/2015 10:55 -0400
One look at FX trading this morning and all one can see is surging volatility and, for lack of a better word, turmoil. Which is precisely what Albert Edwards said would happen in his latest note overnight (released just as the USDJPY briefly breached 125) in which he observes that the Yen has now fully broken its 30-year support and predicts that "a new round of currency turmoil" is beginning.
Both Greece and the troika are said to have devised their own version of a 'final' offer in bailout negotiations, with WSJ saying creditors have prepared a draft agreement for PM Alexis Tsipras to either accept or not. The question now seems to be: how much will the Greek PM have to cede and what does that mean for the Greek government?
- Greece, creditors exchanging documents to reach deal - Commission (Reuters)
- Greece’s Creditors Reach Consensus on Proposal to Athensa (WSJ)
- Greece calls on lenders to accept 'realistic' plan sent on Monday (Reuters)
- Hundreds missing, many elderly tourists, after ship capsizes on China's Yangtze (Reuters)
- Oil up ahead of OPEC meeting as dollar slips (Reuters)
- U.S. Met Secretly With Yemen Rebels (WSJ)
- Euro zone back to inflation as May prices beat forecast (Reuters)
- Patients Get Extreme to Obtain Hepatitis Drug That's 1% the Cost Outside U.S. (BBG)
Once again it's all about Greece, with the latest iteration of a "Greek deal is imminent" rumor making the rounds and, just like yesterday, sending futures in the green, just a little over an hour after the increasingly more illiquid E-mini future has slid 0.7%. The EUR, where the bulk of Virtu headline kneejerk reacting algos are to be found, has surged over 100 pips overnight on more hope and optimism.
The ECB Did Just As It Leaked To Its Hedge Fund Friends: European QE Activity Jumped By Over 8% In MaySubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2015 10:34 -0400
The ECB did just as leaked in advance. Moments ago the ECB released its latest QE purchase data in which we find that total bond purchases jumped by over 8% in the month of May, to over €51 billion, from the previous average over just around €47 billion. This was driven by a jump in German (+8.9%), French (+10%), Italian (+7.4%) and Spanish (+8%) purchases.
June is off with a bang, and a very busy week in the macro economic calendar, both globally and in the US, which culminates with the latest "most important ever" payrolls report, one which will surely be closely watched by a Fed which may hike as soon as a few weeks from now (but probably won't).
"Not only is it possible that we may need to see technical default and deposit blocks in order to come to a new programme, it may be necessary to do so in order to break the current impasse in negotiations," Goldman says, after indicating that a Greek government shakeup is now likely inevitable.