• Tim Knight from...
    01/26/2015 - 21:16
    "Oh, he's there to make sure high school kids don't jump in front of a train to kill themselves", I would reply. And you, assuming you come from a place that isn't insane, would be puzzled and...

Evans-Pritchard

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Will 2015 Be A Year Of Economic Disaster? 11 Perspectives





Will 2015 be a year of financial crashes, economic chaos and the start of the next great worldwide depression? Over the past couple of years, we have all watched as global financial bubbles have gotten larger and larger. Despite predictions that they could burst at any time, they have just continued to expand. But just like we witnessed in 2001 and 2008, all financial bubbles come to an end at some point, and when they do implode the pain can be extreme.

 
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Frontrunning: January 2





  • The year of dollar danger for the world (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard)
  • Draghi Says ECB Prepares Action as Deflation Risk Non-Negligible (BBG)
  • Obama Pivots to Lawmakers: New Plan to Advance Policy Goals by Working With Congress Draws Skeptics (WSJ)
  • Affordable Care Act Creates a Trickier Tax Season (WSJ)
  • Oil pares early gains, trades near $57 as supply glut prevails (Reuters)
  • Iran says Saudi Arabia should move to curb oil price fall (Reuters)
  • Pimco Fund Trails Peers in 2014 After Missing Rally (BBG)
  • Piketty rejects Légion d’Honneur award (FT)
  • UK manufacturing activity hits three-month low (BBC)
 
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The Utter Craziness Of Monetarism Is On Full Display





And thus the utter craziness of monetarism is on full display, in that after arguing that declining oil prices are good for American consumers, they are also suggesting that monetary policy is “too tight”, and thus oil prices are contradictorily “too low.” That betrays the central aspect of this orthodox embracing of lower energy prices as nothing more than a shaky rationalization – they still are not comfortable with low prices but accept them lest anyone get worried about what they really suggest. Orthodox monetary theory is, when stripped of its academic trappings, dedicated to high oil prices and low wages.

 
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The Biggest Economic Story Going Into 2015 Is Not Oil





Once again oil is not even the biggest story today. It’s plenty big enough by itself to bring down large swaths of the economy, but in the background there’s an even bigger tale a-waiting. Not entirely unconnected, but by no means the exact same story either. It’s like them tsunami waves as they come rolling in. It’s exactly like that. That is, in the wake of the oil tsunami, which is a long way away from having finished washing down our shores, there’s the demise of emerging markets. And we're not talking Putin, he’ll be fine, as he showed again yesterday in his big press-op. It’s the other, smaller, emerging countries that will blow up in spectacular fashion, and then spread their mayhem around. And make no mistake: to be a contender for bigger story than oil going into 2015, you have to be major league large. This one is.

 
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5 Things To Ponder: Variegated Contemplations





Yes, it is that magical week leading up to Christmas and the subsequent low volume push into the new year. It is "magic time" as hopes are high that "Santa Claus" will come to WallStreet. "Ignoring valuation – ignoring risk – is a recipe for disappointment and is the thing that is most likely to lead investors to ruin"

 
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14 Facts That Show The Number Of Children Living In Poverty This Christmas Is At A Record High





Did you know that 65 percent of all children in the United States live in a home that receives aid from the federal government?  We live at a time when child poverty in America is exploding. But as bad as things are for the children of America right now, they are only going to get worse. In the years ahead may we all have great compassion for these victims of our incredibly foolish economic mistakes.

 
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5 Things To Ponder: Crude Oppositeness





This weekend's reading list is a collection of articles discussing the good, the bad and the ugly of the dive in crude oil prices.

 
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Why Russia’s Unfazed By Falling Oil Prices





Oil is not quite as powerful a weapon against modern-day Russia as one might think.

 
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All About Debase: Not





Can there be a currency war without victims?  Why hasn't any official accused Japan of a currency war? 

 
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Cheap Oil A Boon For The Economy? Think Again





The oil industry is no longer what it once was, it’s not even a normal industry anymore. Oil companies sell assets and borrow heavily, then buy back their own stock and pay out big dividends. What kind of business model is that? Well, not the kind that can survive a 40% cut in revenue for long. Cheap oil a boon for the economy? You might want to give that some thought.

 
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'We Are Entering A New Oil Normal"





The precipitous decline in the price of oil is perhaps one of the most bearish macro developments this year. We believe we are entering a “new oil normal,” where oil prices stay lower for longer. While we highlighted the risk of a near-term decline in the oil price in our July newsletter, we failed to adjust our portfolio sufficiently to reflect such a scenario. This month we identify the major implications of our revised energy thesis.  The reason oil prices started sliding in June can be explained by record growth in US production, sputtering demand from Europe and China, and an unwind of the Middle East geopolitical risk premium. The world oil market, which consumes 92 million barrels a day, currently has one million barrels more than it needs.... Large energy companies are sitting on a great deal of cash which cushions the blow from a weak pricing environment in the short-term. It is still important to keep in mind, however, that most big oil projects have been planned around the notion that oil would stay above $100, which no longer seems likely.

 
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The Eurozone's QE Problem





"QE is a necessary condition for recovery in Europe, but is not sufficient in itself. The question is where does this bridge take us? The eurozone can survive a couple more years of miserable growth, but it can’t go on forever like this before people lose hope. There is political risk almost everywhere."

 
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Dysfunctional America





If you require more evidence that the United States is a dysfunctional society, observe American elections. Election season is slander season. Each party’s attack teams focus on misrepresenting, defaming, and ridiculing the opposing party’s candidates. Attack ads have replaced debates and any discussion of what the issues are, or should be, and how candidates perceive the public’s interest. Each attack team tells lies designed to enrage various voters about the other team’s candidate. Whoever is elected is indebted not to voters but to the special interests that provided the campaign money.

 
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