Exchange Traded Fund
On October 15, well into the fourth quarter, David Tepper appeared on CNBC for his semi-annual stock pumpfest, most memorable for his suggestion that a 20x P/E multiple on the S&P was perfectly acceptable. Which would suggest Tepper was very bullish on risk. Which would suggest buying more stocks, not selling. Yet selling is precisely what he did between September 30 and December 31 for the vast majority of his top holdings according to his just released 13F. So what did he sell or liquidate?
Dennis Gartman, already humiliated beyond any hope of reputation salvage in the media, appears to be refocusing his keen talents and acute sense of extrapolating instantaneous market momentum 1 millisecond into the future, to a renewed direct exposure in the capital markets. And while hoping that market junkies have forgotten the epic disaster that was his last foray into ETF-land with ONN and OFF, Gartman today announced that he is now launching his signature shtick as a brand new ETF: gold... in non-dollar terms.
The biggest fear the market currently has is not the ongoing crisis in the Emerging Markets, not the suddenly slowing economy, not even China's credit bubble popping: it is that Bernanke's successor may have suddenly reverted to the "Old Normal" - a regime in which the Fed is not there to provide the training wheels should the S&P suffer a 5%, 10% or 20% (or more) drop. Whether such fears are warranted will be tested as soon as there is indeed a bear market plunge in stocks - the first in nearly three years (incidentally the topic of the Fed's lack of vacalty was covered in a recent Reuters article). So, assuming that indeed the most dramatic change in market dynamics in the past five years has taken place, how does one trade this new world which is so unfamiliar to so many of today's "younger" (and forgotten by many of the older) traders? And, more importantly, how does one look for the signs of a bottom: an Old Normal bottom that is. Courtesy of Convergex' Nicholas Colas, here is a reminder of what to look forward to, for those who are so inclined, to time the next market inflection point.
US (and Japanese) stocks began their dead-cat bounce around the European open tracking USDJPY (once again) and rising in reverse order of yesterday's selloff as Nikkei, Trannies, Nasdaq and so on (in order) recovered around 25-35% of yesterday's losses. For Fibonacci-watchers, S&P futures ticked 38.2% retracement and stalled and VWAP was support all day. Credit markets did not buy it and stocks caught down to them. Silver, having underperformed since the taper, outperformed today back over $19.50 and +1.7% on the week as gold slipped modestly today (but +0.8% on the week). Treasuries sold off modestly leaving yields -2-3bps on the week. AUD stength and JPY weakness supported stocks but the USD flatlined ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting. MUB, the Muni ETF, was smashed lower on the Puero Rico junking (and that triggered a quick waterfall in stocks) but that was quickli BTFD'd. VIX fell an impressive 2.9 vols to 18.5%.
Nine Event Risks for the week ahead: identified, discussed and assessed.
Despite every talking head having written off the miners, they were the best performer across US equity sub-indices. In the US equity markets Biotech and REITs also performed well. On the other hand, Nasdaq Insurance and NYSE Arca Oil ETF were the worst...along with the NYSE Composite Index (which represents 61% of all global market capitalization).
As we draw ever closer to Europe's date with disaster and the inevitable lifting of the kimono that Draghi's supervision-driven stress tests appear to be, European banks are being forced to finally 'fess up to the real state of their balance sheets. Confused at how bad macro data can be in Spain and yet banks have been 'surviving' or 'thriving' - simply put, they lied. Spain's Banco Popular just released earnings showing a 19.6% rise in non-performing loans at EUR21.2 billion driven by a surge in "doubtful loans for subjective reasons" that almost tripled QoQ. This is the highest bad loan ratio on record at 14.27% - but have no fear, their CEO says "loan defaults are nearing their peak," because he would know...
Just over a year ago, in one simple graphic, we showed why Bridgewater, which currently manages around $150 billion, is the world's biggest hedge fund. Quite simply, its flagship $80 billion Pure Alpha strategy had generated a 16% annualized return since inception in 1991, with a modest 11% standard deviation - returns that even Bernie Madoff would be proud of. And, true to form, according to various media reports, Pure Alpha's winning ways continued in 2013, when it generated a 5.25% return: certainly underperfoming the market but a respectable return nonetheless. However, Pure Alpha's smaller cousin, the $70 billion All Weather "beta" fund was a different matter in the past year. The fund, which touts itself as "the foundation of the "Risk Parity" movement", showed that in a centrally-planned market, even the best asset managers are hardly equipped to deal with what has largely become an irrational market, and ended the year down -3.9%.
There are only a few UK and U.S. banks on the list of global safe banks. This should give pause for thought. Notice that many of the safest banks in the world are in Switzerland and Germany.
It is important that one owns physical gold and not paper or electronic gold which could be subject to bail-ins. Owning a form of paper gold and derivative gold such as an exchange traded fund (ETF) in which one is an unsecured creditor of a large number of custodians, who are banks which potential could be bailed in, defeats the purpose of owning gold.
Physical Gold, held in secure conferring outright legal ownership through bailment remains the safest way to own gold.
Last week, Citi's Tobias Levkovich raised numerous concerns about the state of exuberance and "disconcerting disconnects" that is our new normal market currently. In the week since, Citi's proprietary Panic/Euphoria model is sending a clear warning of substantial complacency - its most "euphoric" since 2008. This is worrisome, he notes, since there is an 80% probability of a market decline in the next 12 months based on the current reading.
South Africa supplies almost 60% of the world's platinum (including secondary supply) and 30% of the world's palladium (including secondary supply).
According to Johnson Matthey, platinum production fell almost 16% in 2012 while palladium production declined 10% last year alone.
With prices well below their recent highs, looming production cuts will leave markets tight supporting prices and likely leading to higher prices.
A record deficit in platinum supplies is set to push prices higher and demand is boosted by the new exchange traded fund (ETF).
A record deficit in platinum supplies is set to push prices higher, as unrest sweeps the South African mining industry and demand is boosted by the auto sector and a new exchange traded fund (ETF), according to HSBC, as covered on CNBC
It is a fact that COMEX gold inventories are falling and silver inventories are rising. Why and does this help predict the next price move?
Gold has come under pressure from heavy liquidation by hedge funds and banks on the COMEX this week. The unusual and often 'not for profit' nature of the selling, at the same time every day this week, has again led to suspicions of market manipulation.
Gold’s ‘plunge’ is now headline news which is bullish from a contrarian perspective. As is the fact that many of the same people who have been claiming gold is a bubble since it was $1,000/oz have again been covering gold after periods of silence.