Exchange Traded Fund
Is the disaster creating a buying opportunity? China has far and away the world’s most ambitious nuclear program, with 100 plants on order over the next decade. Any cut back in the nuclear program would have to be met with stepped supplies from other sources, which are unavailable. The place to go when “RISK OFF” is over? (NLR), (CCJ).
Complete Q1 Hedge Fund Holdings Summary: Is The HF Love Affair With Apple Ending - Microsoft Is Now Biggest Hedge Fund Hotel "Groupthink" StockSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/20/2011 09:11 -0400
Something interesting appeared in today's Release of David Kostin's Hedge Fund Trend Monitor. Actually make that shocking: as of the end of Q1, Apple is no longer the most hedge fund-held stock in the world. After 195 hedge funds held AAPL at the end of 2010, the most of any stock, with Citigroup and JPM in 2nd and 3rd position, over the next 3 months 22 fund or over 10% of the HF holder base have dumped their entire stake. And with a YTD return of just 4% who can blame them... for jumping out of the frying pan and into the "value investor" fire: as of Q1 the most widely held Hedge Fund stock is now Microsoft with 181 holders, up from 161 in the previous quarter. Which unfortunately means that 181 hedge funds have generated a -11% return on this holding. And with few if any funds left who have yet to enter, the only way for MSFT from here on out is down. Not surprisingly, both Citi and Bank of America saw their fans depart, with 12 fund closing out their C positions, and 9 doing the same for BAC.
Bottom-up saw equity underperform credit but the S&P seemed to have a mind of its own into the last hour (as credit closed near its wides and stocks at their highs). Low beta outperformed in stocks and credit. Most notable was the huge jump in USA protection costs in the last two days!
This situation is too far gone, the energy industry has it's hooks too deeply in our politicians and they have WAY too much control over our daily lives. That means the logical thing to do, when faced with an out-of-control vital service that is gouging consumers and damaging our economy, our environment, and working against our national interests - is to NATIONALIZE THEM.
Activity in spread land was very muted today with only a handful of names really making any moves. Equity outperformed credit but single-name credit was disappointing as up-in-quality continued. Primary issuance dominated thoughts today as 2s10s30s seemed to run S&P futures nicely up as credit ignored it.
U.K. unemployment claims rose in April at the fastest pace since January 2010, showing the very fragile nature of the recent tentative economic recovery. Government spending cuts, austerity measures and accelerating inflation are clearly beginning to impact embattled consumers. In the U.S., stagflation is also an increasing, if unacknowledged, threat as the classic symptoms of inflation - slow growth, high unemployment and inflation are present. Weak U.S. factory output and home building data yesterday suggests that the world's largest economy is slowing down again. Official inflation figures in the U.S. remain benign but hedonic adjustments and many adjustments to the methodology of calculating inflation in the last 20 years mean that that the Consumer Price Index is no longer an accurate measure of real inflation in the economy. This macroeconomic risk coupled with continuing geopolitical risk is supportive of gold continuing to receive safe haven demand. The launch of the new Hong Kong Commodity Exchange will result in Asia having an even bigger say in prices of commodities and precious metals. The exchange is backed by China’s biggest bank and a Russian tycoon and will challenge established markets and exchanges in Europe and the U.S.
Stock markets on crack are about to join Lindsey Lohan and Charlie Sheen in rehab. We are witnessing the end of the third great bubble in debt, the greatest accumulation of IOU’s in history. The Federal Reserve is now manipulating all markets, and the exercise is certain to end in tears. The only way out from this will be to suffer an economic and financial crisis worse than we have seen to date. Dow 3,500, here we come. Looking for oil at $15 a barrel. Gold craters to $250 and silver to $4. A 2% yield on ten year Treasuries anyone?
Soros Sells Gold ETF While Paulson Buys - PIMCO Favour Gold As A “Protection Against What Can Go Wrong”Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/17/2011 07:09 -0400
The confirmation of George Soros ETF gold sale has again garnered much media comment. Soros’ $28 billion fund decreased its holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the exchange traded fund. Soros had bought gold to protect against possible deflation, though his fund now believes there is a reduced chance of such a condition, the Wall Street Journal recently said, “citing people close to the matter”. Should Soros and his fund think that inflation is now a greater risk than deflation then it is curious that they would sell all their ETF holdings. It is also curious as Soros is on record regarding having serious concerns regarding the outlook for the euro and the dollar and the dollar as reserve currency of the world. There is of course the precedent of other hedge fund managers , such as David Einhorn, who have also sold their gold ETF holdings but bought physical bullion in allocated accounts due to a concern about counter party and systemic risk. This would allow Soros to discreetly accumulate bullion away from the public and media spotlight that result from SEC filings. Paulson & Co., the $36 billion hedge fund founded by John Paulson kept its largest holding - $4.41 billion in the SPDR Gold Trust. Paulson’s belief in gold is seen in the fact that those who buy his fund can have their stakes denominated in gold rather than in dollars, meaning the value of their investment rises and falls with the price of bullion – lessening exposure to the dollar. Paulson, unlike Soros, is on record as having purchased gold to protect against inflation. PIMCO, the largest bond fund in the world, are also increasingly allocating funds to gold in their global equities portfolio. “The largest position in [our] fund is gold, which we think is a very good form of protection against what can go wrong,” said Anne Gudefin, PIMCO’s global equities portfolio manager, told Fortune magazine May 12.
Equities have significantly underperformed credit the last two days but have plenty of room to go before they re-sync with any kind of value. Rotation under the surface points a risk-averse crowd seeking safety and not poised to BTFD.
While equities are credit closed almost unch from last Friday but at their lows/wides of the week, there was plenty under the surface that clearly signals derisking is rife and discrimination active. HY dispersion and CMBX tranches among others point to some cyclical turning points that do not auger well.
Probably the strangest development in the world of ETFs today is that the silver ETF, SLV, was trading at a discount to its most recently disclosed NAV of 38.1932 at well over 10% earlier, when the spot price of silver dropped to just over $32: an all time record. So momentum-based and emotional is the trading in precious metal ETFs now that there appear to be gaping arbitrage opportunities within these high volume products. Granted, the NAV is updated once a day, and we expect that should today's silver paper price not revert to the NAV, that the NAV will decline. Alternatively, if the price drops, the discount to NAV could creep to yet another all time low. And while these are merely artificial ETF mechanics, which can and should not be traded merely for the sake of their manifestation in the market, the reality is that total COMEX silver just dropped to another fresh all time low, following another 250k ounce reclassification from Registered to Eligible, and the withdrawal of 444k ounces, offset by the receipt of 109.760 ounces by JPMorgan (of all COMEX banks).
Equities continued their path of convergence to credit's recently weak signals today as we saw the largest compression between debt and equity in two months. Up-in-quality and up-in-capital structure very evident as single-name vol rose notably.
Equities outperformed credit today, prompting a re-entry in our relative-value ETF position but while indices show improvement, rotation across sectors, quality cohorts, and capital structures suggest risk appetite is sorely lacking.
One of the most pronounced self-reinforcing features of the silver drop from the last two days, was the outright drop in silver holdings in the SLV ETF, which in the span of 5 days, from May 2 to May 6, lost 760 tonnes of silver. The sheer momentum of this move, as some claim, was the biggest factor facilitating the record rout in silver. Well, as of yesterday this trend has reversed itself, and as of close yesterday SLV has disclosed that it added 311 tonnes of silver, or nearly half the underlying amount lost in the selloff. Nonetheless, the overreaction within the SLV complex was massive, as while silver spot remained well above 2011 lows, the SLV ETF holdings actually plunged to a 2011 low level which had last been seen in November 2010. And with silver rising fast again this morning, printing at $38.50 as we type, look for the downward momentum, which so many eagerly pointed to to indicate the relentless nature of the rout, to reverse itself. Add to this the fact that non-commercial specs are at multi year lows, and very soon the only possible argument for the bubble claimants will be that all silver has merely rotated out of very weak hands into truly strong ones.
For those that think gold and silver bulls are perpetually long gold and silver no matter the present condition of the PM markets, that is a patently false notion. In regard to the recent steep silver correction, an asset that periodically has steep corrections every year (the majority of which are induced and engineered by corrupt bankers) does not a bubble bursting make.