- Hilsenrath: Fed Ushering in New Era of Uncertainty on Rates (WSJ)
- Is Supreme Court's chief justice ready to take down ObamaCare? (The Hill)
- Netanyahu arrives in U.S., signs of easing of tensions over Iran speech (Reuters)
- Nemtsov Murder Fuels Suspicion, Fails to Spur Russia Selloff (BBG)
- ECB uncomfortable with leading role in Greek funding drama (Reuters)
- Video shows Los Angeles police shooting homeless man dead (Reuters)
- Iraq Military Begins Campaign to Reclaim Tikrit (WSJ)
- How Billionaires in London Use Secret Luxury Homes to Hide Assets (BBG)
In California, the low gas price "tax cut"for the consumer is officially over as gas prices soar by 60 cents to $3.23 per gallon in the last few weeks...
"...those companies were among the many that gave to the Clinton family’s global foundation set up by her husband, former President Bill Clinton. At least 60 companies that lobbied the State Department during her tenure donated a total of more than $26 million to the Clinton Foundation, ...Mrs. Clinton’s connections to the companies don’t end there. As secretary of state, she created 15 public-private partnerships coordinated by the State Department, and at least 25 companies contributed to those partnerships."
It's not been a good week for oil safety in America. Following the derailment earlier in the week, CBS now reports an explosion at Exxon Mobil's Torrance, California refinery (processes an average of 155,000 barrels of crude oil per day) occured at 850amPT...
*EXXON SAYS EMERGENCY PROCEDURES ACTIVATED AT TORRANCE REFINERY
*EXXON TORRANCE SAID TO HAVE EXPLOSION IN FCC
While dismissed as 'normal flaring' to begin with, Exxon has confirmed it is not and "shelter in place" has been ordered as ash is falling up to 3 miles away.
- Markets From Stocks to Debt to Euro Show Little No Panic (BBG)
- Greek Euro Exit Risk Increases as EU Delivers Ultimatum (BBG)
- Oil rises to $62, near 2015 high as Mideast risks support (Reuters)
- Texas judge blocks Obama plan to protect undocumented immigrants (Reuters)
- Oil Train Derails and Ignites Forcing West Virginia Evacuations (BBG)
- Battle rages for town where Ukraine rebels reject ceasefire (BBG)
- Chinese Firms Tiptoe Back Into Europe’s Battered Financial Sector (WSJ)
- Putin’s Paradise Becomes Economic No-Go Zone Where Cash Is King (BBG)
- Emerging fund managers stuck in buy-and-hold as trading shrivels (Reuters)
Since the anti-austerity Syriza party's victory in Greece's recent general election, the “Greek problem" is again preoccupying markets and policymakers throughout Europe. Some fear a return to the uncertainty of 2012, when many thought that a Greek default and exit from the eurozone were imminent.
The only question on traders' minds today, with the lack of any macro news out of the US (except for the DOE crude oil inventory update at 10:30am Eastern expecting a build of 3.5MM, down from 6.33MM last week, and the 10 Year bond auction at 1pm) is which Greek trip abroad is more important: that of FinMin Varoufakis to Belgium where he will enter the lion's den of Eurogroup finance ministers at 3:30pm GMT, or that of the foreign minister Kotzias who has already arrived in Moscow, and where we already got such blockbuster statements as:
LAVROV: RUSSIA WILL CONSIDER AID REQUESTS, IF GREECE MAKES THEM; KOTZIAS: GREECE IS WILLING TO MEDIATE BETWEEN EU, RUSSIA
Or perhaps both are critical, as what happens in Brussels will surely impact the outcome of the Greek trip to Russia?
- RBA cuts interest rates to record low of 2.25% (SMH)
- RBI keeps rates on hold (Reuters), India allows banks flexibility on big projects to reboot growth (Reuters)
- BP slashes capital spending by 20% (FT)
- Greek Retreat on Writedown May Move Fight to Spending (BBG)
- Rosneft accounting move helps BP beat profit forecast (Reuters)
- Amazon in Talks to Buy Some of RadioShack's Stores (BBG)
- Behind Obama's budget proposals, a gloomy view of the future (Reuters)
- How the Justice Department, S&P Came to Terms (WSJ)
- Staples, Office Depot in Advanced Talks to Merge (WSJ)
Exxon Revenues, Earnings Tumble 21% From Year Ago, Sales Miss Expectations By $5 Billion; Stock Buyback Grinds To Near HaltSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/02/2015 08:28 -0500
Moments ago, following our chart showing the devastation in Q1 earning forecasts, Exxon Mobil came out with its Q4 earnings, and - as tends to happen when analysts take a butcher knife to estimates - beat EPS handily, when it reported $1.56 in EPS, above the $1.34 expected, if still 18% below the $1.91 Q4 EPS print from a year earlier. A primary contributing factor to this beat was surely the $3 billion in Q4 stock buybacks, with another $2.9 billion distributed to shareholders mostly in the form of dividends. However, while XOM did the best with margins and accounting gimmickry it could under the circumstances, there was little it could do to halt the collapse in revenues, which printed at $87.3 billion, well below the $92.7 billion expected, and down a whopping 21% from a year ago. And this is just in Q4 - the Q1 slaughter has yet to be unveiled!
In a few minutes, Exxon (first, then all other energy companies) will confirm if the earnings collapse so many had predicted to take place in Q1 as a result of plunging crude prices will materialize. Wait, did we say "so many", make that nobody. Here is what Factset has to say about forecast Q1 energy earnings: "On September 30, the estimated earnings growth rate for the Energy sector for Q1 2015 was 3.3%. By December 31, the estimated growth rate fell to -28.9%. Today, it stands at -53.8%." Just a little off.
It's not exactly the same as if Wall Street were to unionize and demand higher wages, but when US energy workers - supposedly the best paid profession away from those who BTFD or BTFATH for a living - go on strike, it is time to pay attention, which is precisely what happened yesterday afternoon, when US union leaders launched a large-scale strike at nine refineries after failing to agree on a new national contract with major oil companies. It marks the first nationwide walkout since 1980 and impacts plants that together account for more than 10% of US refining capacity. The United Steelworkers Union (USW) began the strike on Sunday, after their current contract expired and no deal was reached despite five proposals.
The overnight session had been mostly quiet until minutes ago, when unexpectedly WTI, which had traded down as low as the mid $46 range following the weakest Chinese manufacturing data in two years, saw another bout of algo-driven buying momentum which pushed it sharply, if briefly, above $50, and was last trading about 2.6% higher on the day. In today's highly correlated market, this was likely catalyzed by a brief period of dollar weakness as well as the jump of EURCHF above 1.05, within the rumored corridor implemented by the Swiss National Bank, which apparently has not learned its lesson and is a glutton for a second punishment, after its hard Swissy cap was so dramatically breached, it hopes to repeat the experience with a softer one around 1.05. Expect to see even more FX brokers blowing up once the EURCHF 1.05 floor fails to hold next.
- Saudi Arabia’s New King Probably Will Not Change Current Oil Policy (BBG)
- Saudi King’s Death Clouds Already Tense Relationship With U.S. (WSJ)
- Oil Pares Gains as New Saudi King Says Policies Stable (BBG)
- Kuroda Says BOJ to Mull Fresh Options in Case of More Easing (BBG)
- U.S. pulls more staff from Yemen embassy amid deepening crisis (Reuters)
- Putin Said to Shrink Inner Circle as Hawks Beat Billionaires (BBG)
- A Few Savvy Investors Had Swiss Central Bank Figured Out (WSJ)
- Obama Targets Income Gap in Address That Shapes 2016 Election (BBG)
- Republicans Reject Obama’s Main Economic Proposals (WSJ)
- Senate’s Shelby Says White House Bank Tax Is Dead on Arrival (BBG)
- Is Dollar Next? Investors Reassess After Swiss Shock: Currencies (BBG)
- Bank of Japan Cuts Price Forecast, Maintains Record Stimulus (BBG)
- Pound Weakens After BOE Policy Makers Drop Call to Raise Rates (BBG)
- Putin not flinching on Ukraine despite economic crisis (Reuters)
- Indonesia will not make public full preliminary AirAsia crash report (Reuters)
- Party Hasn't Stopped for Russians at Davos Even With Ukraine Sanctions (BBG)
We see far too much complacency out there when it comes to interest rates, in the same manner that we’ve seen it concerning oil prices. We live in a new world, not a continuation of the old one. That old world died with Fed QE. Just check the price of oil. There have been tectonic shifts since over, let’s say, the holidays, and we wouldn’t wait for the ‘experts’ to catch up with live events. Being 7 weeks or two months late is a lot of time. And they will be late, again. It’s inherent in what they do. And what they represent.