Exxon

It’s always a bit amusing to meet an investor making money in the markets right now who actually thinks it’s because he’s smarter than everyone else. Everyone knows the Fed’s quantitative easing program calls for them to buy $85 billion worth of bonds and mortgage backed securities each and every month. And the connection to market performance is clear. But, as is clear with USDJPY, Nikkei, and European sovereigns, the end of this exuberance is beginning to happen. All of this indicates that the leveraged investing herd seems to be squaring positions, going to cash, and paying back some of the USD-denominated debt they’ve borrowed. So far it’s all been an orderly move lower. And herein lies the trouble. Few investors are spooked right now because there is so much calm in the markets. But that calm can quickly turn into anxiety, which can quicly turn into all-out panic. It’s taken years (since 2008) to print so much money. This means that a market panic will unwind years’ worth of liquidity in a matter of weeks. It’s a financial tsunami that no investor should underestimate.

Exxon Mobil hasn't asked federal regulatory authorities to restart the Pegasus oil pipeline, which burst open in a neighborhood in Mayflower, Ark.  In March, a 22-foot rupture in the pipeline spilled about 5,000 barrels of diluted Canadian crude oil into an area of marshland, though the company said it's been effectively cleaning the area with long-term remediation in mind. Talking points over pipelines are focused on economic and energy security interests on one side of the argument versus emissions and cleanup on the other. Given the legacy of pipeline spills since the Keystone XL debate began more than four years ago, the "real" issue may be the lack of debate over just why so many of these pipelines have burst open in the first place.

• Pentagon Plans for the Worst in Syria (WSJ)
• Russia and US agree to Syria conference after Moscow talks (FT)
• Hedge Funds Rush Into Debt Trading With $108 Billion (BBG)
• Detroit is the new "deep value" - Hedge funds in search of distress take a look at Detroit (Reuters)
• Commodities hedge funds suffer weak first quarter (FT)
• But... but... Abenomics - Toshiba posts 62% decline in Q1 net profit (WSJ)
• Americans Are Borrowing Again but Still Less Than Before Freeze (WSJ)
• Man Utd announce Alex Ferguson to retire (FT)
• Asmussen Says ECB Discussed ABS Purchases to Spur SME Lending (BBG)
• Benghazi Attack Set for New Review (WSJ)
• Belgium Says 31 People Arrested Over $50 Million Diamond Theft (BBG)
• Brazilian diplomat Roberto Azevêdo wins WTO leadership battle (FT)
• Bangladesh Garment Factory Building Collapse Toll Reaches 782 (BBG)

Last time it issued bonds was in 1996, when it flirted with bankruptcy. But now a new era is dawning.

• Reinhart and Rogoff: Responding to Our Critics (NYT)
• Differences with centre-right delay Italy's Letta (Reuters)
• Italy's Letta moves forward to shape government (Reuters)
• China’s leaders warn on financial risks (FT)
• Norway oil fund makes big move from bonds to stocks (FT) - worked wonders for the Bank of Israel
• Smuggling milk is the new smuggling heroin in HK: Milk Smugglers Top Heroin Courier Arrests in Hong Kong (BBG)
• RenTec's mean reversion models fail on BOJ lunacy: Yen Bets Don't Add Up for a Fund Giant (WSJ)
• From 'Fabulous Fab' to Grad Student (WSJ)
• BOJ in credibility test as divisions emerge over inflation target (Reuters)
• Boston Bombing Suspect Moved from hospital to prison (WSJ)
• Provopoulos Says ECB May Never Need to Use Bond-Buying Program (BBG) which is good because, legally, it doesn't exist

Participants don’t see them. Outsiders shake their heads, until they get sucked in. Central banks create them, but deny their existence. Risks no longer exist. Take natural gas.

With the entire world's attention focused on Boston, the FX carry pair traders knew they had a wide berth to push futures, courtesy of some EURUSD and USDJPY levitation overnight, which started following news out of Japan that the G-20 would have no objection to its big monetary stimulus - of course they don't: they encourage it: just look at the levitation in the global wealth effect stock markets since it started. The Friday humor started early: "Japan explained that its monetary policy is aimed at achieving price stability and economic recovery, and therefore is in line with the G20 agreement in February," Aso told reporters. "There was no objection to that at the meeting." "We explained (at the G20 meeting) that we're convinced that the measures we're taking will be good for the global economy as they will help revive Japanese growth," Aso said. And by global economy he of course means stocks. Shortly thereafter, when Europe opened, the real levitation started as someone, somewhere had to offset what would otherwise be a 100 point plunge in the DJIA just on IBM's miserable results alone. Sure enough what better way to do that than with a wholesale market "tide" offsetting one or two founder boats.

• Investigators hunt for clues in marathon bombing (Reuters)
• Investigators scour video, photos for Boston Marathon bomb clues (Reuters)
• 'Act of Terror' Kills at Least Three, Injures About 140 as Bombs Wreak Carnage on Marathon Crowd (WSJ)
• Brent Crude Below $100 (WSJ)
• Slower China Growth Signals Days of Miracles Are Waning (WSJ)
• Central Banks at Ease Limit Risk Political Backlash (BBG)
• Merkel plans to quit midterm, says author (FT)
• Monte Paschi Prosecutors Seize $2.3 Billion of Nomura Assets (Businessweek)
• Treasuries back on investors’ buy lists (FT)
• J.C. Penney Said to Seek Ways to Separate Real Estate for Cash (BBG)
• Climate scientists struggle to explain warming slowdown (Reuters)
• Putin Calls for Stimulus Plan After Recession Alarm (BBG)
• TIPS in Longest Selloff Since ’08 as U.S. Bancorp Cuts (BBG)

• Cyprus leader invites family firm probe (FT)
• How the Fed fueled an explosion in subprime auto loans (Reuters)
• Wal-Mart Customers Complain Bare Shelves Are Widespread (BBG)
• JC Penney CEO gets no bonus, stock award after dismal year (Reuters)
• New Bird Flu Virus Kills 2 in China, Sparking WHO Probe (BBG)
• Algorithms Play Matchmaker to Fight 7.7% U.S. Unemployment (BBG)
• Fed hawk Lacker and dove Evans face off over inflation (Reuters)
• Infamous silver market "cornerer" WH Hunt Becomes Billionaire on Bakken Oil After Bankruptcy (BBG)
• Japan Auto Sales Fall on Subsidy End as Korea Extends Drop (BBG)
• Black Hawks Near North Korea Show Risk in U.S. Command Shift (BBG)
• SEC Embraces Social Media (WSJ)
• Tesla Touts ‘True Out of Pocket’ Financing for Model S (BBG)
• U.K. Banks Try to Dodge Bonus Caps by Defining Risk-Taker (BBG)

Was the Real Purpose of the Iraq War to Restrict Oil ... So As to Raise Oil Prices?

• Berezovsky Died of Hanging Without Struggle, Police Say (BBG)
• BRICS Nations Plan New Bank to Bypass World Bank, IMF (BBG)
• China pledges more investments to Africa (FT)
• BOJ's Kuroda signals targeting longer-dated JGBs (Reuters)
• North Korea orders artillery to be combat ready, targeting U.S. bases (Reuters)
• Supreme Court to take up gay marriage for the first time (Reuters)
• U.S. Cracks Down on 'Forced' Insurance (WSJ)
• Japanese courts press Abe on electoral reform (FT)
• Vietnam accuses China of attack on fishermen in South China Sea (Reuters)
• Italy's High Court Overturns Knox Acquittal (WSJ)
• Facebook’s Zuckerberg Said to Explore Forming Political Group (BBG)

• Cyprus targets big depositors in bank plan  (FT)
• Merkel Vents Anger at Cyprus Over Bailout Plan as Deadline Looms (BBG)
• Russia rebuffs Cyprus, EU awaits bailout "Plan B" (Reuters)
• Russia Rejects Cyprus Bid for Financial Rescue as Deadline Looms (BBG)
• Cyprus unveils shake-up as the clock ticks (FT)
• Remember Italy? Italy’s stalemate unnerves investors (FT)
• Credit Suisse CEO pay jump to fuel banker bonus debate (Reuters)
• Kuroda Rebuts Reflation Naysayers as BOJ Action Looms (BBG)
• Fund Manager Says 'Whale' Trade Was a Bet (WSJ)
• House averts government shutdown, backs Ryan budget (Reuters)
• Hong Kong Homes Face 20% Price Drop as Banks Raise Rates (BBG)

With some predicting China will import 79% of its oil by 2030, could domestic shale gas extraction help China meet its energy needs? As shale gas fever sweeps through Beijing, analysts are looking at the costs and benefits of extracting what is increasingly a controversial source of energy. But for China, with its growing middle class, the immediate and long-term demand for energy has the potential to spark a revolution in shale gas before sufficient and safe technological know-how and regulations are developed.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) technology - from LNG seaborne tankers and LNG trains to floating LNG facilities have quickly gone from concept to commercialization, opening up new possibilities in new frontiers and rendering the remote - well, much less remote. Analysts say FLNG terminals will become a major growth market within the next couple of years, as they offer more flexibility than stationary terminals. Liquefaction of natural gas is the process of super-cooling natural gas to minus 260 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 162 degrees Celsius) at which point it becomes much safer and easier to transport. After its been shipped to its destination, regasification plants at importing or receiving terminals return the fuel to a gaseous state. A lot of money is being dumped into LNG technology right now. It’s a major bet on the LNG market, but here’s why it’s solid...

Steven Rattner, investment banker and former member of the Obama Administration, is terrified that under a proposed law companies will be able to raise money without investment bankers: "most troublesome is the legalization of 'crowd funding,' the ability of start-up companies to raise capital from small investors on the Internet..." This is absolutely, classically representative of the technocratic arrogance of the Obama Administration and the investment bankers that inhabit it. Here are three quick thoughts...