It has been said that history may not repeat but it sometimes rhymes. Just as the generals always seem to fight the last war people seem to prepare for the last depression. Times change and the mechanism that leads to misfortune changes with it. Looking at the past may not give us the clear answer to how to deal with the future but it can help us to determine what might happen and how to deal with it when the time comes.
The system is now more leveraged, more in debt, and more fragile than it was in 2008.
Less than one week after the BOJ floated a trial balloon using Bloomberg, that it would reduce the rate it charged some banks which set off the biggest USDJPY rally since October 2014, we are back where we started following last night's "completely unexpected" (for everyone else: we wrote "What If The BOJ Disappoints Tonight: How To Trade It" hours before said "shock") shocking announcement out of the BOJ which did absolutely... nothing. "It’s a total shock,” Nader Naeimi, Sydney- based head of dynamic markets at AMP Capital Investors told Bloomberg. "From currencies to equities to everything -- you can see the reaction in the markets. I can’t believe this. It’s very disappointing."
The famous Hollywood adage - 'nobody knows anything' - seems to perfectly apply to the current turbulence in the oil market. So in an effort to clarify where the global oil economy is heading to, let’s engage in a Battle of the Oil Analysts. Relying on these Oil Analysts (OA) does not necessarily mean you will be handed straightforward answers, but perhaps with some luck you will see a ray of light.
It’s been about 15 years now since passenger airliners struck the World Trade Center towers on 9/11, and we are still suffering the consequences of that day, though perhaps not in the ways many Americans might believe. The 9/11 attacks were billed by the Bush Administration as a “wake-up call” for the U.S., and neocons called it the new Pearl Harbor. But instead of it being an awaking, the American public was led further into blind ignorance. Clearly, after 15 years of disastrous policy, it is time to admit that the U.S. response to 9/11 has damaged us far more than the actual attacks ever could.
As we predicted during our preview of Ted Cruz's "big announcement" earlier today, the republican presidential candidate, in hopes of kickstarting his mathematically impossible to win campaign, is set to announce that Carly Fiorina will be his vice presidential nominee if he’s the Republican Party’s pick for president according to Politico.
Overnight things went from comical to farcical overnight when the Venezuela gift kept on giving, and the nation expanded the three-day weekend to five days, declaring a two-day work week for government workers, adding it was seeking international help to save its power grid amid a drought that threatens the capital’s main source of electricity. The two-day work week, after the government added Wednesdays and Thursdays as non-working days to save more power.
"The physical market dog is starting to wag the paper market tail. Anyone trading paper-centric historical patters is driving forward while looking in the rear view mirror."
According to the latest Institute of International Finance forecast, and in validation of Kyle Bass' strong conviction that China is about to suffer a major 15%+ devaluation, China's capital outflow headaches may be only just starting. According to the IIF's latest report released today, global investors are expected to pull $538 billion out of China's slowing economy in 2016, which means another $420 billion after the $118 billion that has already been withdrawn in Q1.
That the status quo--the current pyramid of wealth and power dominated by the few at the top - has failed is self-evident, but we can't bear to talk about it. This is not just the result of a corporate media that serves up a steady spew of pro-status quo propaganda--it is also the result of self-censorship and denial. The truth is the usual menu of reforms can’t stop this failure, so we have to prepare ourselves for the radical transformations ahead.
While pro-Bernie progressives are free to create their own communities in Ron Paul’s world, Ron Paul libertarians are compelled by force to participate in Bernie’s world. That is the fundamental difference between liberty and socialism, between voluntaryism and collectivism, between statism and private property. Nothing prevents progressives from living as they wish now, except the very things they viciously oppose: decentralization, secession, and local control.
True believers want to think China will continue to grow at breakneck speed and the IMF is feeding them what they want to hear to lift animal spirits accordingly. When the house of credit-cards comes crumbling down the IMF will once again be proven to have completely missed an obvious structural shift as the Chinese economy will linger on like Japan has done over the last three decades.
"Money was a lazy b*tch, until you put it to work! And look how it works! Look how it grows! Materializes out of nowhere! As leaders, innovators, captains of finance, you will always be subject of the jealous resentment, the petty tantrums of the unwashed masses, the insolvent, the irresponsible, the invidious, the losers. They will envy you, your successes, they will despise you, but they secretly want to be like you! Irresponsible single mothers, uneducated immigrants, lead-drinking ghetto-strutters, homeless, crying, babies, starving senior citizens, obnoxious, entitled African Americans who object to having bullets pumped into their bodies by police: all these people are angry, entitled, and making noise, and they are endangering our democracy and economy, our greatness."
Somehow, without the American public’s awareness, the U.S. government is on the hook to two failed companies for $445.6 billion dollars. And that may be just the tip of the iceberg of this story.
Less than three months following our warning about a "constant oil short squeeze", it is time to unveil the next warning: one of a potentially big drop in the oil price as now record speculative oil longs proceed to cover on the other side, unleashing a selling scramble lower.