Fail

Is This The Bubble?

"Every major market peak, and subsequent devastating mean reverting correction, has ever been the result of the exact ingredients seen previously. Only the ignorance of its existence has been a common theme."

Dr.Copper's False Hope - "We've Seen All This Before, Too Many Times"

Copper prices surged to the highest levels since May 2015 in the last few days, prompting the ubiquitous "must mean the economy is doing well" narrative from every hope-fuelled reflationist. There's just one problem, we’ve seen all this before too many times.

What's Next For Obamacare Repeal: A Primer From Goldman And Citi

After yesterday's surprising Senate GOP "victory", when it found the bare minimum number of votes to open debate on Republican Healthcare legislation, Republicans suffered an immediate defeat just hours later when the Senate voted soundly against a "Repeal and Replace" of Obamacare. What happens next: here are two primers from Goldman and Citi, both of which however are quite skeptical than anything practical will be achieved.

Bank Of England Warns Of "Spiral Of Complacency" Over Soaring Consumer Debt

"Ten years ago, an unsafe financial system caused financial crisis and economic disaster.  Complacency gave way to crisis. The result was economic disaster. Lenders have not entered, but they may be dicing with the spiral of complacency.  The spiral continues, and borrowers rack up more and more debt. Lending standards can go from responsible to reckless very quickly."

What If The Debt Ceiling Turns Ugly: How To Trade A Fall Spike In Volatility

"We think volatility is unlikely to sustain these extreme lows in the fall and like selling Oct VIX puts as (i) seasonal patterns suggest the VIX troughs in Jul and peaks in Sep/Oct, (ii) the VIX has “settled” below 12 in only two of the past 27 Octobers, and (iii) fundamentally, the threat of debt ceiling brinkmanship in Sep/Oct, which has already spooked the T-bill market, should help support equity volatility."

Trump's Slide Into Endless-War Syndrome

"In sum, Trump should avoid getting co-opted by the U.S. military and honor his campaign rhetoric, which implied staying out of non-strategic brushfire wars."

Watch Live: President Trump Delivers A Statement About Healthcare

Having warned "Republicans have a last chance to do the right thing on Repeal & Replace after years of talking & campaigning on it," in a tweet this morning, building pressure on the GOP after threatening overnight that "if Republicans don't Repeal and Replace the disastrous ObamaCare, the repercussions will be far greater than any of them understand!" President Trump will deliver a statement about healthcare, shortly after meeting with what he calls “victims of Obamacare."

Von Greyerz: "We Are Now In The Frightening Endgame"

"Stock investors are rejoicing about stock markets making new highs in many countries, totally oblivious of the risks or the reasons...The gullibility of people today is exacerbated by the power of the internet and social media."