Fail

A financial oligarchy has seized control of the country, and, since it can't control its own appetites, is running it into the ground. Thus, it would make sense for it to have some sort of back-up plan for when the whole financial house of cards falls apart. Ideally, this plan would effectively put down any chance of revolt of the downtrodden masses, and allow the oligarchy to maintain security and hold onto its wealth. Peacetime is fine for as long as it can placate the populace with bread and circuses, but when a financial calamity causes the economy to crater and bread and circuses turn scarce, a handy fallback is war.

When markets begin a "bear" cycle, they can remain in an oversold condition for extended periods. There is an important 'truism' to remember - "Markets crash when they’re oversold."

• Islamic State launches militant assault on Indonesia's capital (Reuters)
• Three winners emerge in $1.6 billion Powerball jackpot (Reuters)
• European Stocks Tumble, Credit Markets Weaken on Growth Concern (BBG)
• Stocks and commodity currencies floored by new oil plunge (Reuters)
• China Bear Market Looms as PBOC Fails to Stop Flight to Safety (BBG)
• Anxious phone calls, tense moments before Iran's Supreme Leader okayed U.S. sailors' release (Reuters)

China is untenable in its current financial position. That is the primary problem, and so long as it remains so whatever the PBOC does will have but a fleeting impact. In more immediate terms, that is being recognized by the “dollar” run which continues to savage not just China but South America (more than just Brazil), Africa, Asia (more than China) and you might even argue Canada and Mexico. From that, we see that it isn’t China that is the problem with the “dollar”, it is the whole damn system.

The beaten-down Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index has reached a confluence of significant potential near-term support levels. Should this level fail to provide as much as a speed bump and the Russell 2000 slices right through it, then perhaps a more devastating market decline is already at hand.

As the towering forces that are prevailing against failing global economic architecture and the pit of debt beneath that structure, as laid out below, it is clear that the 'Epocalypse' - encompassing the roots "economic, epoch, collapse" and "apocalypse" - is here, and it is everywhere. The Great Collapse has already begun. What follows are the megatrends that will increasingly gang up in the first part of 2016 to stomp the deeply flawed global economy down into its own hole of debt.

In the wake of a series of articles published over the weekend which suggested that both the police and the media in Sweden engaged in a coverup to conceal a series of sexual assaults from the public, authorities are in damage control mode. As the arrests begin, it seems likely that the far-right will capitalize on the scandal by blaming the mainstream parties for failing to protect the country's youth.

With China now "murdering" Yuan shorts, markets are content that the Chinese debacle seems to be contained if only for a while, and so the attention of both traders and algos alike has focused on oil, which earlier in the session dragged global equities lower as it dropped by 3%, just shy of the $30 level, a new 11 year low, before staging another dramatic rebound in minutes, wiping out all losses in the aftermath of what appears to have been a deadly suicide bomber terrorist explosion on a square the middle of Istanbul's historic district.

... if analysts, like those at Autonomous are to be believed, China’s banks could require up to $7.7tn of new capital and funding over the next three years. State bailouts could send the government debt to GDP ratio spiralling from 22 per cent to 122 per cent. That kind of shock would be a challenge for any country, even one of China’s vast might.

The problem is that when this sucker goes down, to paraphrase the immortal words of George W. Bush, you have to wonder how much other stuff of everyday life for everyday people it will take down with it. The discovery phase of our predicament began ever so crisply in the very first business week of the new year. The loss of faith in value of all kinds will play out sequentially. It is starting in financial “assets” because so many of these are just faith-based stories, and in this quant-and-algo age it has gotten awfully hard to tell what is good story and what is just a swindle.

With rate hike odds for March plunging from over 55% a week ago to just 38% now, it appears faith in The Fed has utterly failed. WTI traded down to $30.97 - the lowest ssince Dec 2003.

But here is a giant freebie for all those stupid, clueless oil executives out there in North America.

Another algo-induced stop-run has tried and failed to maintain its gains this morning as Morgan Stanley becomes the latest (after Goldman) to join the "oil in the $20s is possible" bandwagon. Despite hopeful bullishness from Andy Hall who sees production destruction leading (an industry that couldn’t function at $50 certainly can't function with prices below $40) inevityably leading to higher prices, Morgan Stanley warns, "in an oversupplied market, there is no intrinsic value for crude oil. The only guide posts are that the ceiling is set by producer hedging while the floor is set by investor and consumer appetite to buy. As a result, non-fundamental factors, such as the USD, are arguably more important price drivers."

Many price-battered precious metals investors may currently be sitting on some quantity of capital that they plan to convert into gold and silver, but they are wondering when “the best time” is to do so.