Fail

"Public services, infrastructure, the very fabric of the nation: these too are being converted into risk-free investments. Social cleansing is transforming central London into an exclusive economic zone for property speculation. From a dozen directions, government policy converges on this objective. Property in this country is a haven for the proceeds of international crime. Sometimes the UK looks to me like an ever so civilised mafia state."

“Sooner or later, everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences..." – Robert Louis Stephenson

So if you really want to make “refugees” the election issue “du jour”, one can waste a lot of time watching the mainstream incumbent parties bicker over the “right” number of refugees to allow into Canada or how much taxpayer money to throw at aid, or even whether more Canadian “boots on the ground” should be headed over there on various “peace keeping” escapades... or, you could ask the really hard hitting questions...

Brazil, whose economy officially slid into recession in Q2 - a quarter during which Brazilians suffered through the worst inflation-growth outcome (i.e. stagflation) in over a decade - and whose efforts to plug a yawning budget gap are complicated by political infighting and a growing public outcry against embattled President Dilma Rousseff, has been cut to junk by S&P.

This key barometer of global equities dropped to a level that it could ill-afford to lose. And while a bounce should transpire from here, the fact that the index has been traversing this level for the past 8 days reminds us that significant potential risk awaits should it fall off the precipice.

It appears that aerial surveillance across much of the East Coast will be impaired until October 1 due to “military activities.”

“This notam has caused considerable alarm and much confusion, while giving pilots little time to prepare. The long duration, ambiguous language, and short notice of this notam are all cause for serious concern."

The markets are clearly sending the same warning signals that they always have. It is only a question of whether we are willing to listen, or allow our "greed" to keep us at the casino table hoping for one more "hot hand." One thing is for certain, if the market does muster a rally strong enough in the week's ahead to retest the previous bullish trend moving average, it could very well be a "sucker's rally."

There is strong evidence that economies perform better with a tight labor market and, as the International Monetary Fund has shown, lower inequality (and the former typically leads to the latter). Of course, the financiers and corporate executives who pay $1,000 to attend the Jackson Hole meeting see things differently: Low wages mean high profits, and low interest rates mean high stock prices. Statements from Fed officials that the economy has virtually returned to normal are met with derision. Perhaps that is true in the neighborhoods where the officials live. But, with the bulk of the increase in incomes since the US “recovery” began going to the top 1% of earners, it is not true for most communities. Simply put, in the US, workers are being asked to sacrifice their livelihoods and wellbeing to protect well-heeled financiers from the consequences of their own recklessness.

Last week’s volatility to the downside was entirely predictable, as the first leg down during this ongoing market crash reached the correction stage of 11%. The technical bounce was a given, as the 30 year old HFT MBAs on Wall Street have been trained like rats to BTFD. In their lemming like minds, it has worked for the last six years of this Federal Reserve created “bull market”, so why wouldn’t it work now. Last week was their first lesson in why it doesn’t work during bear markets, and we’ve entered a bear market. John Hussman seems amused at the shallowness of the arguments by Wall Street shills and CNBC cheerleaders about the future of the stock market in his weekly letter. After this modest pullback from all-time highs, the S&P 500 is still overvalued by 92%...

For anyone who (still) believes that Canada has a diversified economy...

The centrally-planned house of cards is finally starting to shake uncontrollably.

The current refugee crisis is not an EU problem, but rather "a German problem," according to Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban as his nation's borders are swamped with foreigners seeking to travel on to Germany. "People in Europe are full of fear because they see that the European leaders are not able to control the situation," he exclaimed after a meeting with EU President Schultz. He is right, of course, as we detailed here and here, but the sheer scale of the tragedy is worst than many could imagine. Orban defended his decision to erect a fence along its southern border with Serbia, saying: "we don’t do this for fun, but because it is necessary," adding rather pointedly that his country was being "overrun" with refugees, most of whom, according to the prime minister, were not Christians.

Through the 20th century, the people of the West built up a very high compliance inertia. They complied with the demands of authority and taught their children to do the same, until it became automatic. People obeyed simply because they had obeyed in the past. Authority quickly became addicted to this situation, basing their plans on receiving every benefit of the doubt. Automatic obedience, however, is a brittle thing. Economies of scale are failing, the money cartel has been exposed, government schools have lost respect, mass media is fading away, and the game continues because the populace is distracted and afraid. And that will not last forever. The ‘walls’ of reflexive compliance are growing thinner. Any serious break may ruin the structure.

The situation in Brazil is deteriorating rapidly after finance minister Joaquim Levy canceled a G20 appearance in Turkey (irony) and convened a meeting with embattled President Dilma Rousseff. FX traders fear a worst case scenario involving Levy's exit. Meanwhile, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is en route to Brasilia tonight to meet with Rousseff one-on-one. 

The REAL RISK currently is not missing some of the upside if the bull market does begin to resume, but rather catching the downside if this correction turns into a full-fledged bear.

• U.S. Treasury's Lew says China will be held accountable on currency (Reuters) ... but not Japan
• Bank of Japan Not Convinced of Need for Further Easing (WSJ)
• Stocks Advance With Commodities on Signs of European Revival (BBG)
• IMF Says China Slowdown, Other Risks Threaten Global Outlook (WSJ)
• Xi Says China No Threat, Announces Military Cuts at Parade (BBG)
• China holds massive military parade, to cut troop levels by 300,000 (Reuters)
• Migrants leave Budapest for Austrian frontier; pressure builds for EU action (Reuters)