Fail

Bad algo. Go in that XOR gate (in retrospect, with this market, this should actually be a NOT gate) and stay there for 1 trillion co-located CPU cycles. In other news, the volume in the last minute was 50% above normal, hitting 44k contracts in 60 seconds. Good thing the circus rang the closing bell for the Nasdaq or else people might take this market seriously.

The G20 meeting has revealed two important things that tell us something about our combined economic future. First we learned that the US lost the battle to try to get everyone back on the Keynesian print-a-thon bandwagon. This tells us something about US leadership in these troubled times. Once-upon-a-time, the US could dictate such things, and those days are apparently over which deserves to be noted. The second thing we learned is that, despite these differences in how to fund future growth, there is nothing yet to indicate that any the world leaders are aware that the very concept of perpetual growth is an unworkable fallacy. It’s obvious, hopefully to even the most casual of thinkers, that someday, sooner or later, whatever growth one is engaged in will have to stop. Nothing grows forever; everything has a limit.

As prospects before BP get darker by the day, and the likelihood of bankruptcy grows, the TBTF propaganda begins. Evidence A - Bloomberg headline: "BP Demise Would Threaten U.S. Energy Security, Industry." Just as the failure of bankrupt banks was supposed to lead to the destruction of capitalism, so the bankruptcy of BP plc is now supposed to lead to the degeneration of US energy independence. And who in their mind would force the Chapter 11 of a systemically important company? Once again, free market capitalism is about to walk out through the back door...

European banks are in a freefall similar to what happened to US banks. We saw this coming months ago when I wrote in a blog post about the state of US, Europe and Canadian Banks. I said that of the three, I worried most about the European banks because asset prices had not fallen like they had in the states, and that the debt level of German and UK banks could precipitate another crisis. There are some very concerning things happening now in European Banks.
The market is disounting them as practically insolvent. And even worse, there is some real problems with what is happening in state insured banks like West LB which has been bailed out and is state owned. It would be the same if the markets charged Fannie Mae the subprime borrowing rates they deserve. Fannie Mae's cost of funds is below any private bank simply because they are considered part of the treasury. In fact, because it is guaranteed, if their borrowing costs were too high, one could buy Fannie Mae bonds, sell gov't bonds and make a risk free spread.

Dylan Ratigan draws some rather obvious parallels between AIG and the recent TBTF banking episode, and the possible fate of BP, whose failure would doom, among others, the retirement funds of Scottish widows, as we noted previously in disclosing the key holders of BP stock. Will the US president be willing to push BP to the point where a bankruptcy of BP results in international diplomatic outcry over what could be the next TBTF precedent? Surely BP is aware of this catch 22, and is thus willing to apply the modern version of American capitalism: "the risk taker uses the leverage of their size and importance to so many people to transfer the risk they've created to the government and future generations, while keeping the rewards of all the risks that they've taken, negligent repair, you pick the thing - they keep the money, you keep the problem. This seems to have become the new version of American capitalism: extortion and bribery." In this clip, in which Ratigan tears apart BP's Darryl Willis (worth watching in itself to see how TV anchors don't always have to bow down to their guests, David Faber feel free to take notice), BP seems to have painted itself in a diplomatic corner: "We will pay claims until we are done paying claims... We are going to pay the damages caused by this spill to every person who has been hurt, harmed and damaged." Alas, this does not leave much maneuvering room for the former oil giant. As for the question of how BP can afford to pay a $10 billion dividend in light of what seems to be a tide of approaching claims payments, Willis does not provide an answer. BP's CDS spread, however, does.

Payback is sweet. One of Obama's favorite Chicago banks, Shorebank, is on the verge of failure after a bank consortium of Goldman, JPMorgan, BofA and Citi is 25 million "short" of providing the needed rescue funding, according to Fox Business' Charle Gasparino. As Charlie reports, the consortium has secured commitments of only $100 million so far, and it is unclear if they will provide even another penny, despite the administration's explicit demands that the bank be "supported." Of course, to the abovementioned banks $25 million is less than they spend on strip clubs per month, so that this amount could be a gating issue is nothing but a political statement. As Charlie points out: “As of now Shorebank will not get bailed out. The consortium has not agreed to a final number. They are about $25 million short of the $125 million needed. From what I understand, the consortium of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan,Citigroup , Bank of America do not want to give any more money. The banks tell me there is a degree of political pressure to give money but I think at this point they are tapped out. They just had the meeting an hour ago, they had $100 million raised, they are $25 million short. And what they are telling me is they are not giving any more money.” Now that bailouts are a political decision, you better have your money in a bank that is liked by the Chief Executive: more fromGasparino "But I will tell you this, the banks themselves are telling me that there is a degree of political pressure being applied by the Obama administration to bail this out…so we could get a last minute bailout…This is a very politically connected bank.” After the government has provided the banks with $25 trillion, the banks have a problem with returning the favor with the same number ex-six zeroes.

First posted 17 November 2008, this column's analysis is more relevant than ever. It asks why investors rush to government securities when the US was at the epicentre of the financial crisis? This column attributes the paradox to key emerging market economies’ exchange practices, which require reserves most often invested in US government securities. America’s exorbitant privilege comes with a cost and a responsibility that US policy makers should bear in mind as they address financial reform. - Carmen Reinhart and Vince Reinhart

The market is now irreparably broken - if you are trading your own money today, or in the near-future you will lose it, and you can thank the SEC, the NYSE, dark pools, Goldman and all the other "liquidity providers" and market makers. The damage control by the mainstream media has failed. The European bailout has failed. The Nonfarm number was a failure, despite Obama's attempt to spin it favorably. The entire bear market rally is finally being seen for the sham scam we have said it was from the very algo-manipulated beginning. So is it any surprise that the VIX is now double where it was a few days ago. All those who sold calls on the VIX are getting carried away in bodybags, the only question is whether the decimation there is worse than among the ranks of the carry traders. At this rate the market is likely going to close near the stop limit positions in the 1,050 range, which will push traders over the weekend to take weapons grade doses of Xanax. Alternatively, mutual and pension fund idiot money will simply sell.

Senators Brown and Kaufman, who as we previously noted presented a "Too Big To Fail" amendment to the finreg bill, have now officially filed this proposal, whose primary purpose is to cap the size of the massive banking monoliths. It will be interesting to see who votes for and against this amendment to see just how far the long hand of Wall Street reached. Below is an FAQ on the proposed Size and Leverage Limits as proposed by the senators.

Mark Mobius, at least smi-hypocritically, joins the camp of those who still dare live in reality. Bloomberg reports that the Templeton Chairman said Greece should be allowed to go bankrupt as that would be the best way to sort out its finances. “If we pour piles of cash into a country where corruption extends to top government officials, we won’t see any reforms,” Mobius told the Ljubljana based paper. “There is no other solution than to stop financing Greece with creditors taking responsibility and suffering damages, so countries should help them, not Greece, limit those damages.”

"Although Goldman Sachs held various positions in residential mortgage-related products in 2007, our short positions were not a 'bet against our clients.'"

That claim, from Goldman's letter to its shareholders,
is easily refuted. The S.E.C. has brought fraud charges on one of
Goldman deals known as synthetic subprime mezzanine collateralized debt
obligations, or CDOs. While most of these deals remain shrouded in
secrecy, one of them, Anderson Mezzanine Funding 2007, Ltd.
lays out its blueprint in sufficient detail so that we can pinpoint how
and why this transaction's failure was never in doubt.

With everyone focused on the US bond market, it was of course inevitable that the failed bond auction would occur not here, but in that other great liquidity pump and Keynesian playground: China. Market News reports that the Chinese Ministry of Finance was unable to sell all of its planned issuance of 91- and 273- day bills. The bond failures were attributed to increasing concerns of monetary tightening which, of course, would impact short-term rates and make investors skittish about locking up capital. Although being unable to fill a 3 Month order book is stunning - Chinese bond vigilantes are now officially on the prowl, and their (in)action guarantees either a hike, or much more serious liquidity withdrawal over the next 91 days, which would spell doom for stocks which trade now only on the combined efforts of the PBoC and the Fed to drown the world in colored pieces of paper. Throw in the unpredictable events of CNY revaluation, and the training wheels of the biggest reliquification experiment are about to come off. We caution readers not to be surprised if in light of these failed auctions, any overtures toward a CNY hike are indefinitely postponed.

Enacting a credible bankruptcy process to solve the too-big-to-fail problem, clarifying the Fed's umbrella supervision and financial stability roles, and enhancing market discipline are steps we must take to lower the probability of a future crisis. We could simplify the entire financial regulatory legislative initiative by focusing on these three key elements. We do not need huge new bureaucracies, or a complete restructuring of our regulatory agencies. - Charles Plosser

At our firm we frequently receive calls from clients and readers asking about the likelihood of the passage by the Congress in Washington of reform legislation regarding over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives, financial regulation and/or mortgage securitization. Our answer is small to none given the political trends and the state of the lobbies in Washington, most specifically the large bank lobby that protects the Sell Side monopoly in OTC derivatives and securities. The fact that Senator Richard Shelby (R-AL) is still apparently not comfortable with the entirely watered down House proposal to reform OTC derivatives, for example, tells you all you need to know. Stick a fork in it.

The difference between the world when Volcker was Fed chairman and today is the end of Glass Steagall. Instead of bailing out simple lenders, the Fed now faces the task of managing and saving giant securities and securitization platforms that are too big to manage in a rational fashion. Don't fool yourself into thinking that JPM chief Jamie Dimon or any CEO of a TBTF bank has the slightest idea what is really happening within their enterprise.