Federal Deficit

Seth Klarman Warns Trump's "Erratic, Overconfidence" Could End Dollar Hegemony

The big picture for investors is this: Trump is high volatility, and investors generally abhor volatility and shun uncertainty... If things go wrong, we could find ourselves at the beginning of a lengthy decline in dollar hegemony, a rapid rise in interest rates and inflation, and global angst...”

Budget Showdown Looms As Conservatives Press For Entitlement Reform

"I’m not looking to pick a fight with the president of the United States, but if his goal is to put the country on a fiscally sound course, he’s going to have to address entitlement reform.  Anybody who is going to balance the budget on discretionary spending [cuts] is on a fool’s errand."

IMF Downplays Trump Stimulus Effect; Slashes Saudi, Mexico Growth In Latest World Economic Outlook

As the world's elite gather in Davos to decide for the minions what the world should look like, The IMF has taken a far dimmer view of global (and by that we mean Trumpian) economic growth than markets appear to be. In addition to slashing Brazilian, Mexican, and Saudi Arabian economic growth forecasts, Lagarde's lackeys are taking a cautious stance toward the policies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office this week, assuming only a modest boost to the U.S. economy from his promise of fiscal stimulus.

The Boredom Before The Storm

With all the surprising and/or disturbing things going on – Brexit, China’s soaring debt, US/Russia/China saber rattling, the, um, unique US presidential race, the cyber attack that shut down big parts of the US Internet – you’d think that an unsettled world would be reflected in skittish financial markets. Instead we’re getting the opposite...

Paul Volcker Explains Why The Fed Can't Raise Rates

"Our current debt may be manageable at a time of unprecedentedly low interest rates. But if we let our debt grow, and interest rates normalize, the interest burden alone would choke our budget and squeeze out other essential spending. There would be no room for the infrastructure programs and the defense rebuilding that today have wide support."

Is Obama Juicing Government Spending To Get Hillary Elected?

"They know the economy is in the shitter and the average American is not better off than they were four or eight years ago. As a last ditch effort to keep this tsunami of history from rolling over them and sweeping away the last vestiges of their corrupt rule, they have ramped up the printing presses and government spending to try and make the masses believe the economy is hitting on all cylinders. It will fail, and the peasants will be coming for them."

Debt, Deficits & Economic Warnings

The processes that fueled the economic growth over the last 30 years are now beginning to run in reverse, and when combined with the demographic shifts in the U.S., the impact could be far more immediate and prolonged than the media, economists and analysts are currently expecting...It is simply a function of the math.

On The Impossibility Of Helicopter Money And Why The Casino Will Crash

Will the boys and girls still in the casino after the current election gong show is over patiently wait for their next fix from a beltway governance process that is in sheer pandemonium and stalemate? We think the odds are between slim and none. As we indicated previously, if Trump is elected the fiscal process will lapse into confrontation and paralysis for an indefinite spell. And if Hillary is elected, the Republican House will become a killing field for almost anything she proposes, and most especially the rank Keynesian apostasy of outright and massive debt monetization...