Federal Reserve

"Costs Are Rising, Wages Are Dropping" - The 'Real' Economy That Obama Left For Trump

As President Obama held his last press conference this afternoon, basking in the warm afterglow of an over-sampled poll showing his favorability near record highs, it would appear he (and the press corps) forgot to mention that for most Americans - the 80% in production and nonsupervisory roles - this morning's data showed real wages actually dropping for the first time since 2013. Not exactly the rosy picture of economic growth being spun by the media as Obama transitions to Trump.

Janet Yellen Explains "The Goals Of Monetary Policy"... Seriously - Live Feed

Less than two days before Donald Trump is inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States, Fed chair Janet Yellen takes to the stage at the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco to explain (after all these years), what "the goals of monetary policy are... and how we pursue them." We can't wait to hear how increasing asset prices to untenable levels, depriving savers of income, and driving the largest wedge between rich and poor since the great depression have been part of the solution...

Beige Book Notes Minimum Wage Increases, Warns Of Building Margin Pressures

The Fed's latest beige book, perhaps the most boring report released by the Federal Reserve, found 10 of the 12 Fed districts growing at the now ubiquitous "modest or moderate pace" with Cleveland growing only slightly and New York reporting little change for the fourth period in a row.  However, despite stagnant growth, margin pressures are building as input prices are rising faster than final goods prices.

Goldman Beats, Profits Surge As Trading Revenues Jump; Average Banker Comp Hits $338,600

Goldman once again surprised to the upside, reporting Q4 Revenues of $8.17BN, higher than the $7.76BN estimated, translating to EPS of $5.08, also above the $4.73 estimate, and nearly 4 times the $1.27 reported a year ago. Net revenues from the institutional client services division were up 25% from a year earlier to $3.6bn, led by a 78% jump in revenues from the fixed-income, currencies and commodities unit.

Trump Could Go Down As The Worst President... (But It Will Not Be His Fault)

History books remember Herbert Hoover as one of the worst American presidents. Hoover inherited a stock market bubble near its peak - fueled by the Fed’s easy money policies. Trump has, too. And he knows it. Trump is the perfect scapegoat. If new shantytowns sprout up, they won’t be Hoovervilles - they’ll be “Trump Towers.” All this is why what happens after Trump’s inauguration could change everything... in sudden, unexpected ways.

Ron Paul Asks "Will Trump Continue The Bush-Obama 'Big Spending' Legacy?"

America can no longer afford to waste trillions of dollars on a militaristic foreign policy. Donald Trump should follow-up his attacks on wasteful military spending by dramatically changing our foreign policy and working to cut the Pentagon's bloated budget. If the new administration and Congress increase spending, they will need the Federal Reserve to monetize the growing debt, but Fed action can only delay the inevitable day of reckoning.

Ignore At Your Peril

They’re at it again. It isn’t enough that the Federal Reserve’s tighter monetary policies are hamstringing global economic growth, but over the past week a few different Fed officials floated the idea of reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. They seem intent on tightening until something breaks.

The Real Value Of Cash

If an individual is “literally” burying cash in their backyard, then the discussion of the loss of purchasing power is appropriate. However, if cash is a “tactical” holding to avoid short-term destruction of capital, then the protection afforded outweighs the loss of purchasing power in the distant future.

IMF Downplays Trump Stimulus Effect; Slashes Saudi, Mexico Growth In Latest World Economic Outlook

As the world's elite gather in Davos to decide for the minions what the world should look like, The IMF has taken a far dimmer view of global (and by that we mean Trumpian) economic growth than markets appear to be. In addition to slashing Brazilian, Mexican, and Saudi Arabian economic growth forecasts, Lagarde's lackeys are taking a cautious stance toward the policies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office this week, assuming only a modest boost to the U.S. economy from his promise of fiscal stimulus.

Key Events In The Coming Week: Trump Inauguration, Davos, Theresa May, ECB, China GDP

The week ahead will be a busy one, with a plethora of events including the Davos shindig, where particular focus will be on Chinese President Xi Jinping, the first Chinese president to attend. China will also announce GDP on Friday, which also marks the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th US president. Tuesday brings Theresa May's long-awaited Brexit speech.

Why The Stock Market Has Soared (And We'll All Soon Know What It's Like To Be A Madoff Client)

The absolute disconnect of asset prices from economic activity is and will continue to be unlike anything we have seen. This is no more of a "free market" than shooting a cow in a pasture is "hunting".  "Invest" accordingly, but know full well the ill gotten gains will one-day, someday, sooner than later, be entirely gone and we'll all know what it felt like to be Bernie Madoff clients.