Federal Reserve
The Big Short is a Great Movie, But...
Submitted by rcwhalen on 01/05/2016 11:00 -0500- Alan Greenspan
- Apple
- Arthur Levitt
- Bear Stearns
- Bond
- CDS
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission
- Corruption
- Countrywide
- Credit Default Swaps
- default
- Federal Reserve
- Gretchen Morgenson
- Housing Market
- Institutional Investors
- Lehman
- Lehman Brothers
- Market Share
- Meltdown
- Michael Lewis
- Morgan Stanley
- Mortgage Loans
- NASDAQ
- New Century
- New York Stock Exchange
- None
- OTC
- OTC Derivatives
- program trading
- Program Trading
- Subprime Mortgages
- Wachovia
- Washington Mutual
Derivatives like credit default swaps turned a mere bubble in the US housing market into a global financial catastrophe...
What Comes After The Commodities Bust?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2016 10:57 -0500The one thing executives should have learned in 2015 is that Wall Street can for long periods of time remain disconnected from fundamentals and can swing to extremes. Another lesson from 2015 is that OPEC can no longer be relied upon to set prices. Thus, the debt fueled financing boom in the shale space will most likely never return. This is especially true now that there are clear signs that the U.S. economy is weakening while the Fed chose to raise the federal interest rates in December. As we move through 2016, expect a rash of bankruptcies tied to this transition to lower leverage, and towards the latter half of 2016 there will likely be a steep fall off of production.
The Drain Continues: U.S. Exports More Gold To Hong Kong Than It Produces
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2016 08:42 -0500As the Federal Reserve continues to prop up the highly leveraged debt based financial industry, the flow of U.S. gold heading East picked up significantly. According to the USGS most recently released survey, Hong Kong received 56% of total U.S. gold bullion exports in September.
Stocks Resume Rout After Massive Chinese Intervention Fails To Lift Shanghai, Calm Traders
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2016 06:52 -0500- Auto Sales
- Barclays
- Bond
- Borrowing Costs
- China
- Cleveland Fed
- Consumer Prices
- Copper
- CPI
- Crude
- Crude Oil
- Economic Calendar
- Equity Markets
- European Central Bank
- Federal Reserve
- fixed
- France
- Germany
- Global Economy
- headlines
- High Yield
- Iran
- Italy
- Jim Reid
- Middle East
- Nikkei
- Non-manufacturing ISM
- Prudential
- RANSquawk
- Real estate
- Recession
- Reuters
- Saudi Arabia
- Shenzhen
- Unemployment
- Volatility
- Yen
- Yuan
After yesterday's historic -6.9% rout in the Shanghai Composite, which saw the first new marketwide circuit breaker trading halt applied to Chinese stocks (on its first day of operation), many were wondering if the Chinese government would intervene in both the once again imploding stock market, as well as China's plunging and rapidly devaluing currency. And, after the SHCOMP opened down -3%, the government did not disappoint and promptly intervened in both the Yuan as well as the stock market, however with very mixed results which global stocks took a sign that the "national team" is no longer focused solely on stocks, and have resumed selling for a second consecutive day.
THE DRAIN CONTINUES: U.S. Exports More Gold To Hong Kong Than It Produces
Submitted by Sprott Money on 01/05/2016 05:59 -0500Unfortunately, this is not a sustainable financial or economic business model for the West.
The Tragicomedy Of Self-Defeating Monetary Policy
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 21:25 -0500Bill Dudley and the Federal Reserve (Fed), in their efforts to influence economic growth may have created a speculative and consumption driven environment that is crushing productivity growth. Ingenuity, not debt, made America an economic powerhouse. If we are to resume down that path we need the Fed to end their “self-defeating” policies and in its place we must demand ingenuity from them. The Fed, along with government, needs to properly incent productivity. The Fed should start this arduous task by removing excessive stimulus which will take the speculative fervor out of markets and allow asset bubbles to deflate.
"Refuse To Compromise", Ron Paul Implores "Purism Is Practical"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 19:45 -0500The ever-growing number of Americans who are joining the liberty movement are not interested in “reforming” the welfare-warfare state. They also have no interest in “fixing" the Federal Reserve via “rules-based” monetary policy. Instead, this movement is dedicated to auditing, then ending, the Fed and stopping the government from trying to run the economy, run the world, and run our lives. If this movement refuses to compromise its principles, we may succeed in restoring a society of liberty, peace, and prosperity in our lifetimes.
Pretend To The Bitter End
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 14:45 -0500- Afghanistan
- Bernie Sanders
- Bond
- BRICs
- China
- Corruption
- CRAP
- Detroit
- Donald Trump
- ETC
- Eurozone
- Federal Reserve
- Ford
- France
- Germany
- Global Economy
- Goldilocks
- Great Depression
- Greece
- High Yield
- Iran
- Iraq
- Israel
- Italy
- Japan
- KIM
- Middle East
- NASDAQ
- Nicolas Sarkozy
- Nomination
- North Korea
- Portugal
- Racketeering
- Reality
- recovery
- Saudi Arabia
- SWIFT
- Turkey
- Ukraine
There’s really one supreme element of this story that you must keep in view at all times: a society (i.e. an economy + a polity = a political economy) based on debt that will never be paid back is certain to crack up. Its institutions will stop functioning. Its business activities will seize up. Its leaders will be demoralized. Its denizens will act up and act out. Its wealth will evaporate. Given where we are in human history - the moment of techno-industrial over-reach - this crackup will not be easy to recover from. Things have gone too far in too many ways. The coming crackup will re-set the terms of civilized life to levels largely pre-techno-industrial. How far backward remains to be seen.
Byron Wien's Reveals Top 10 Predictions: Expects Stocks To Decline After Predicting 15% Rise In 2015
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 12:53 -0500"The United States equity market has a down year. Stocks suffer from weak earnings, margin pressure (higher wages and no pricing power) and a price- earnings ratio contraction. Investors keeping large cash balances because of global instability is another reason for the disappointing performance."
This Time Isn't Different
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 12:36 -0500The reckless herd has been in control for the last few years, but their recklessness is going to get them slaughtered. Corporate profits are plunging. Labor participation continues to fall. A global recession is in progress. The strong U.S. dollar is crushing exports and profits of international corporations. Real household income remains stagnant, while healthcare, rent, home prices, education, and a myriad of other daily living expenses relentlessly rises. The world is a powder keg, with tensions rising ever higher in the Middle East, Ukraine, Europe, and China. The lessons of history scream for caution at this moment in time, not recklessness. 2016 will be a year of reckoning for the reckless herd.
Three Reasons Stocks Will Crater in 2016
Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research on 01/04/2016 07:37 -0500The sources of growth for US corporates have all dried up. Stocks have yet to adjust to this, but when they do it’s going to be an all out collapse.
Happy New Year: Global Stocks Crash After China Is Halted Limit Down In Worst Start To Year In History
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 06:46 -0500- Australia
- Bond
- Carry Trade
- Chicago PMI
- China
- Circuit Breakers
- Copper
- Crude
- Crude Oil
- Equity Markets
- Eurozone
- Federal Reserve
- Ferrari
- fixed
- Flight to Safety
- Germany
- headlines
- High Yield
- India
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Iran
- Jim Reid
- KIM
- Markit
- Meltdown
- Middle East
- NASDAQ
- Nikkei
- RANSquawk
- Saudi Arabia
- Shenzhen
- Swiss Franc
- Yen
- Yuan
It all started off relatively well: oil and US equity futures were buoyant on hopes Iran and Saudi Arabia would break out in a bloody conflict any minute boosting the net worth of shareholders of the military industrial complex, and then, out of nowhere, like a depressed China in a bull shop, the "mainland" crashed the party and it all well south very, very quickly...
2016 Off To A Miserable Start: Asian Stocks Drop; Futures Slide After China PMI Tumbles On Dire Commentary
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/03/2016 21:31 -0500Earlier in the session, after the surge in oil prices on fears of a spike in belligerence between Saudi Arabia and Iran, bulls were hopeful that after a poor close to 2015, at least the first trading day of 2016 would set a positive mood: after all, if there is one thing war is good for, it is to lift stock markets. And it did... for about 3 hours. Then moments ago, Caixin Media and Markit Economics released the latest December PMI, which was, in a word, a total disaster, one which promptly sent US equity futures sliding, and the Shanghai Composite tumbling some 4%... and CSI-300 Limit down.
Nassim "Black Swan" Taleb On The Real Financial Risks Of 2016
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/03/2016 21:00 -0500Though "another Lehman Brothers" isn't likely to happen with banks, it is very likely to happen with commodity firms and countries that depend directly or indirectly on commodity prices.
Fed Vice Chair Explains Why The Fed Is Still Obsessing With Negative Interest Rates
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/03/2016 14:52 -0500Another possible step would be to reduce short-term interest rates below zero if needed to provide additional accommodation... Could negative interest rates be a policy response that the Federal Reserve could choose to employ in a future crisis? ... these are transitional problems, but they might be sufficient to make a move to negative rates difficult to implement on short notice.





