It’s great when a plan comes together. The recipe for the whole move since Election Day is easy. Take one part new Administration with expansive plans to boost the US economy. Add in 2 measures of a Federal Reserve confident enough in existing macro growth to boost interest rates. Add a dollop of money flows. Seems perfect, but there is one thing missing: the analysts who actually cover companies and make earnings forecasts aren’t buying it.
Gold’s biggest 1 day percentage gain since September 2016. Fade out Fed “jibber jabber.” Focus on still ultra low rates (see chart). Rising rates bullish for gold as seen in 1970s and 2003 to 2007 (see table)
World stock indexes surged to record highs on Thursday while the dollar traded close to a one-month low after the Federal Reserve hiked U.S. interest rates but signaled no pick-up in the pace of tightening, while the Dutch elections were broadly interpreted as a drop in support for Europe's anti-establishment powers.
"What happened between December and March? GDP is tracking very low. Measures of labor compensation are not threatening to boost inflation any time fast. The consumer is not picking up very much. Fiscal policy [is uncertain]. And yet, you have to raise rates now..."
As the vulture pundits in the mainstream media pick apart hollow political scandals, the essential bankruptcy of the federal government looms just ahead. The national debt is creeping toward 20 trillion dollars, and the United State’s largest problem is once again staring the world in the face.
Putting the Federal Reserve's third rate hike in 11 years into context, if the Atlanta Fed's forecast is accurate, 0.9% GDP would mark the weakest quarter since 1987 in which rates were raised, according to Julian Emanuel at UBS. We look forward to Ms. Yellen explaining her reasoning - Inflation no longer "transitory"? Asset prices in a bubble? Because we want to crush Trump's economic policies? Because the banks told us to?
For the third time since June 2006, The Federal Reserve has hiked rates by 25bps (as 100% expected). If GDP forecasts for Q1 are correct, this will be the weakest economy since 1987 in which rates were increased.
It is fitting that just a few hours until the Fed's second rate hike in two quarters, and one day after Goldman downgraded global stocks to Neutral for the next 3 months, not to mention with the results of the anticipated Dutch election due shortly, that global stocks as well as S&P futures are higher, while crude oil has finally managed to stage a rebound as the Dollar DXY index is fractionally in the red.