Federal Reserve

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Carmen Reinhart Warns "Serious Sovereign Debt Defaults" Are Looming





As 2016 begins, there are clear signs of serious debt/default squalls on the horizon. We can already see the first white-capped waves.

 
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2015 Greatest Hits: Presenting The Most Popular Posts Of The Past Year





The seventh anniversary of Zero Hedge is just around the corner, and so, for the seventh year in a row we continue our tradition of summarizing what our readers found to be the most relevant, exciting, and actionable news of the year, determined by the number of page views. We bring you the articles that you, dear reader, found to be the most interesting in the past 365 days.

 
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What's Ahead In 2016 - Key Events Of The Next 12 Months





Elections, elections, and more elections is the 'regime change' meme for 2016 but, as Bloomberg details, the key events of the year ahead vary from a California marijuana referendum to Brazil's Olympics, and from Davos to SCOTUS. No matter what, 2016 holds a lot of opportunity for volatility, and without The Fed's safety net, who knows what that means for markets...

 
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Well-Paid Pandering Pundits And The Fantasy Of Reform





Any serious reform has to start with the dissolution of the existing political parties and the Federal Reserve. Anything less is self-serving, pandering fantasy.

 
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Why You Can't Trust The Fed (In 1 Simple Chart)





The Fed’s crystal ball is in serious need of a recalibration. Fed governors simply haven’t a flippin’ clue what to really expect from the economy. The gold market knows that. It knows that the U.S. economy is like an obese American who has taken up jogging to get into shape... only after the first lap around the track, it’s bent at the knees, huffing and puffing, and feeling like it’s gonna keel over.

 
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Red Or Green For The Year: Decision Time For US Markets On Last Trading Day Of 2015





It has come down to this: a year in which the US stock market (led by a handful of shares even as the vast majority of stocks has dropped) has gone nowhere, but took the longest and most volatile path to get there, is about to close either red or green for 2015 based on what happens in today's low-volume session following yesterday's unexpected last half hour of trading "air pocket" which brought the S&P back to unchanged for the year.

 
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Guest Post: "American Capitalism" No Longer Serves Society





America is being destroyed by problems that are unaddressed. Unbridled greed, short-term in nature, will continue to drive America into the ground.

 
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The Fed Just Gave The Treasury A Record $19 Billion Holiday Bonus





Wait, isn't direct funding of the Treasury against US policy: after all, hasn't Bernanke been on the record countless times repeating that the Fed does not monetize the US deficit? Not anymore...

 
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The New Cartel Running The Oil Sector





As oil prices wallow near multi-year lows, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the new cartel controlling oil prices is not OPEC but world credit markets. From Saudi Arabia’s record $100 billion deficit to shale oil’s continuing reliance on cheap credit funding, it’s clear that no major oil producer or company in the world right now is economically self-sufficient based on oil revenues alone. This situation has left the flow of oil and the decision on when to stop pumping the increasingly tarnished black gold in the hands of banks rather than oil men.

 
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The Big Short's Michael Burry Warns "The Little Guy Will Pay" For The Next Crisis





"We are right back at it: trying to stimulate growth through easy money. It hasn’t worked, but it’s the only tool the Fed’s got. The biggest hope I had was that we would enter a new era of personal responsibility. Instead, we doubled down on blaming others, and this is long-term tragic..."

 
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The Herd Is Heading For A Cliff





“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”

 
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"2016 Will Be No Fun" - Doug Kass Unveils 15 Surprises For The Year Ahead





My overriding theme and the central drama for the coming year is that unexpected events can take on greater importance as the Federal Reserve ends its near-decade-long Zero Interest Rate Policy. Consensus premises and forecasts will likely fall flat, in a rather spectacular manner. The low-conviction and directionless market that we saw in 2015 could become a no-conviction and very-much-directed market (i.e. one that's directed lower) in 2016. There will be no peace on earth in 2016, and our markets could lose a cushion of protection as valuations contract. (Just as "malinvestment" represented a key theme this year, we expect a compression of price-to-earnings ratios to serve as a big market driver in 2016.) In other words, we don't think 2016 will be fun.

 
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If You Want To Limit The Power Of The Super-Wealthy, Stop Using Their Money





Everyone who is convinced that the current status quo is permanent and unbreakable should consider what happened to the super-wealthy private landholders of the Western Roman Empire. When the empire's power to coerce broke down, the super-wealthy vanished into the dustbin of history. Few believed that possible in 475 AD, but history isn't a matter of belief. Believing it isn't possible doesn't stop history.

 
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In The "Year When Nothing Worked", This Handful Of Traders Made Billions





While most hedge funds will be glad to close the books on a year in which they once again dramatically underperformed a market which hugged the flatline courtesy of just a few stocks (even as most stocks posted substantial declines) and where "hedge fund hotels" such as Valeant suffered dramatic implosions, a handful of traders generated impressive returns for their investors and made billions by going against the herd.

 
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