Federal Reserve

FOMC Preview: Dashboards, Dissent, & "Degree-Of-Accommodation" Differences

"More of the same," should summarize today's FOMC statement. There will be no press conference or refresh of the 'dot plot' economic projections. The Fed is expected to continue to taper by $10 billion with confirmation that the "growth meme" is playing out just as they projected (especially after today's GDP print). Goldman believes the focus will be on the jobs 'dashboard' and recent inflation data enables the dovish Fed to argue recent moves were noise and stay easier for longer. The downside risk (for markets) may be that Fed hawks will likely have little luck in altering the way forward guidance is employed by the Fed (and chatter over a Fisher dissent is possible).

The Fed's Failure Complicates Its Endgame

To demonstrate it hasn't failed, the Fed must taper/withdraw its monetary heroin. If the stock market tanks as a result, and the Fed rushes to the rescue with more free money for financiers, that will also prove the Fed has failed: if the economy and financial system is as robust as the Fed claims, why does it need to be rescued yet again after six long years of unprecedented injections of monetary heroin? It's a double-bind with no escape. No matter what the Fed chooses to do, the failure of its policies to help households and Main Street while enriching wall Street and the banks will be revealed to all.

Our Totalitarian Future - Part 1

Despots, dictators, and power hungry presidents arise in an atmosphere of fear, scarce resources, hopelessness, and misery. As the power of the central government grows; the freedoms, liberties and rights of the people are diminished and ultimately relinquished.

GoldCore's picture

Aggressive buying of gold and particularly silver by Russia will likely lead to defaults on the COMEX gold and silver futures exchanges and potentially an international monetary crisis. As sanctions, economic war and currency wars intensify we expect Russian and Russian ally buying of gold and selling of dollars to intensify ...

Yellen Capital Humiliated After First Facebook And Now Twitter Surge Higher: TWTR's Quarter In Charts

Moments ago TWTR reported Q2 earnings which beat EPS expectations of a 1 cent loss, posting non-GAAP EPS of $0.02 (let's ignore that the GAAP EPS was actually -$0.24 and that GAAP Net Loss was $144.6 million, much worse than the $42.2 million a year ago, all driven by stock-based compensation expense, because clearly retaining employees is never a factor when calculating earnings). And yet, the stock has exploded by 30% after hours on what appears to be a super squeeze after hours, as the company also reported revenue of $312 million up from $139.3 million a year ago and some $54MM in EBITDA, up 461% Y/Y. This is just a little awkward for the Federal Reserve which some 2 weeks ago was warning about a bubble in social networking stocks, just before first Facebook and now Twitter have exploded higher on what can best be described as yet another massive short squeeze of those who decided to not fight the Fed on this one.

Is Hong Kong-US Dollar Link About To End? HKMA Buys $715 Million To Support Peg

Yesterday saw something quite unusual in the New York trading session. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought $715 million (selling HKD) in the FX markets to manage its currency peg, injecting the money into the banking system (and expanding its balance sheet) to prevent HKD from rising above its permitted range. HKMA projects its balance sheet to grow to the end of July, but as Simon Black (of Sovereign Man blog) notes, this could well be the start of a bigger shift - an end to the US Dollar peg..."The US is no longer the undisputed superpower it once was. The US dollar is dragging them down. Hong Kong is easily strong enough to stand on its own."

Our Marginal Economy

Before you jump on the Bull market bandwagon of "don't fight the Fed," perhaps you should take a look at the quality of the debt the Fed has enabled and the diminishing returns on all that debt.

Today's Other Anniversary

As most are aware by now, today is the 100th anniversary of the start of World War I - the war which was supposed to end all wars, when in reality, in conjunction with the Federal Reserve - which was created just few shorts months prior - it merely unleashed the most deadly series of wars the world has ever seen. What may be less known is that today's "other" anniversary is perhaps just as momentous, if not (yet) as destructive or GDP boosting: on July 28, 2004 is when America got its first glimpse of a political newcomer few if any had heard of previously. Barack Obama.

Here's How Obama Can Halt "Tax Inversions" Without Congress (& Why It Doesn't Matter)

As the topic of "unpatriotic" 'tax inversions' becomes a political issue, we thought it interesting to examine how big an economic issue it really is. How much income tax do U.S. companies actually pay every year to the Federal government? As ConvergEx's Nick Colas notes, the simple answer is “Not much”, at least as compared to any other major source of revenue. In Fiscal 2013, Colas adds, the total was $274 billion, or just 9.9% of all tax and withholding receipts. Your political leanings will inform your opinion about whether that number is too high or too low, of course; but we point out that, as Reuters reports, a former  international tax counsel at Treasury explains Obama could "slam dunk" dictate an end to 'tax inversions' without Congressional approval (by invoking a little known 1969 tax law)

Here's What Wall Street Bulls Were Saying In December 2007

The attached Barron’s article appeared in December 2007 as an outlook for the year ahead, and Wall Street strategists were waxing bullish. Notwithstanding the advanced state of disarray in the housing and mortgage markets, soaring global oil prices and a domestic economic expansion cycle that was faltering and getting long in the tooth, Wall Street strategists were still hitting the “buy” key. In fact, the Great Recession had already started but they didn’t have a clue: "Against this troubling backdrop, it’s no wonder investors are worried that the bull market might end in 2008. But Wall Street’s top equity strategists are quick to dismiss such fears."

 

Frontrunning: July 28

  • The market in one sentence: Buying on Dips Pays Most in Five Years as Stocks Rebound (BBG)
  • Europe subdued, Russia shares tumble on new sanctions (Reuters)
  • Chinese Data Don’t Add Up (WSJ)
  • Argentine Default Drama Nears Critical Stage (WSJ)
  • Global Pressure Mounts on Israel to End Gaza Fighting (BBG)
  • Ukraine troops advance as experts renew attempt to reach crash site (Reuters)
  • Prospects Brighten for Republicans to Reclaim a Senate Majority (WSJ)
  • Europe’s banking union faces legal challenge in Germany (FT)
  • Investors Bet on China's Large Property Developers (WSJ)
  • Hague court orders Russia to pay over $50 billion in Yukos case (Reuters)

John Hussman: "Make No Mistake - This Is An Equity Bubble, And A Highly Advanced One"

"Make no mistake – this is an equity bubble, and a highly advanced one. On the most historically reliable measures, it is easily beyond 1972 and 1987, beyond 1929 and 2007, and is now within about 15% of the 2000 extreme. The main difference between the current episode and that of 2000 is that the 2000 bubble was strikingly obvious in technology, whereas the present one is diffused across all sectors in a way that makes valuations for most stocks actually worse than in 2000. The median price/revenue ratio of S&P 500 components is already far above the 2000 level, and the average across S&P 500 components is nearly the same as in 2000. The extent of this bubble is also partially obscured by record high profit margins that make P/E ratios on single-year measures seem less extreme (though the forward operating P/E of the S&P 500 is already beyond its 2007 peak even without accounting for margins)."