Even with rigged electronic voting, media manipulation, and political co-option, I feel our efforts this year will resonate for many decades to come. Whether we are able to take back social power for regular citizens is not as important as making them aware that they have allowed themselves to lose that power in the first place. The elections of 2012, ultimately, should be treated as a vehicle for enlightenment, and this enlightenment begins when we are able to recognize the lies we live, and the men who sell them to us…
Investors are waiting on the outcome of a 2 day Federal Reserve meeting which ends on Wednesday. Here they are following any signs that interest rates will remain low, as that could put pressure on the U.S. dollar. The Tokyo Commodity Exchange, December, gold contracts climbed as high as 4,167 yen/gram, its biggest gain since mid-December. The gains initially propelled cash gold even though trading was slow during the Lunar New Year break. Japan has been notably absent in the gold market in recent years. This may be changing as concerns about the Japanese economy and continuing debasement of the yen may be leading to Japanese diversification into gold. The scale of domestic savings in Japan remains enormous. This would be a new and potentially extremely important source of demand in the gold market which could help contribute to much higher gold prices.
RED ALERT TO EVERYBODY INTERESTED IN THE ESM: THERE IS NO CURRENT VERSION OF THE ESM TREATY AVAILABLE!!! Europe's most important treaty on the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which will lead the EU into a financial dictatorship, has been pushed through by EU finance ministers late Monday evening. But the latest version of the ESM cannot be found on English and German EU websites. A link on consilium EU only leads to a 'file not found' message and the German EU website "Europa von A - Z" does not mention the ESM at all. This reminds one of the secrecy around the Federal Reserve Act, that was pushed through in 1912. Is the EU Commission now playing the same fishy game 100 years later? Significant changes have been made, a few media reported. The capital of the ESM will now be only €80 billion instead of the €700 billion proposed in the only available draft version from July 2011 (see treaty text below). The finance ministers also agreed to bring the ESM into existence one year earlier by July 2012, putting national governments under immense pressure to ratify the ESM treaty without sufficient public discussion.
Time for a mea maxima culpa: I've been wrong about everything: the stock market, the economy, globalization, energy, everything. Heck, I've even been wrong about the American diet and poor fitness; it's now clear that ice cream sundaes are health food that have been shown to extend life dramatically. Fast food is nutritious and cheap, a great combination, and there is basically nothing in the mind-body that can't be fixed in a jiffy with a handful of pills, all of which are almost free once you qualify for government healthcare programs. The economy has not just dodged recession, it's in full-blown recovery. The only two indicators that are going down are the VIX volatility index, which might just fall to near-zero as investors realize there's no longer any downside in the market and therefore no need to buy hedges, and the unemployment rate, which is steadily declining. 2012 is like 1956, 1964, 1984 and 1996: the economy is booming, and a sitting president has wisely overseen the application of brilliant policies by the Pentagon, State and Treasury departments and the Federal Reserve. The policies were simple: when "more of the same" didn't work, do even more of the same. That did the trick in everything from waging war to finding new energy sources to stabilizing the financial and housing markets. This quote from President Calvin Coolidge neatly sums up 2012: If you see ten troubles coming down the road, you can be sure that nine will run into the ditch before they reach you.
- IMF begging ECB for cash, ECB begging Germany for cash... all is well: Lagarde Says Europe Must Boost Firewall (WSJ)
- More rumors of inflation targeting: Bernanke near inflation target prize, but jobs a concern (Reuters)
- A Sears Wager Stings at Goldman (WSJ)
- Draghi Makes Euro Favorite for Most-Profitable Carry Trades With Rate Cuts (Bloomberg)
- Euro zone finance ministers to rule on Greek debt talks (Reuters)
- "Reserve Currency" - Iran Said to Seek Yen Oil Payments From India Amid Sanctions (Bloomberg)
- Hackers-for-Hire Are Easy to Find (WSJ)
- Florida’s Republican Primary Pits Romney Money Against Gingrich Momentum (Bloomberg)
- YouTube hits 4 billion daily video views (Reuters)
- Carnival CEO Lies Low After Wreck (WSJ)
- Fed Forecasts Could Awaken Treasurys (WSJ)
The real outlook of Monetary Easing vs Treasury Yields
Stocks usually follow the Fed, but this time when the ECB pumped, so much of it flowed into the US that not only Treasuries, but also stocks, got a lift.
As the name implies. What is funny is how only after the advent of the Federal Reserve in 1913 did Financial crises expose increasingly more of world GDP to a crisis state. But at least the Fed and ECB tell us all they do is enforce price stabeeletee. Could they be lying!? We thought it was all the gold standard's fault for causing unprecedented economic volatility... Guess not. From History Shots: "The giant wave in the top section of the graphic depicts the percentage of world GDP by region in crisis during the 200 year period. It includes the four major financial crisis types (sovereign default, banking, currency, and inflation) along with stock market crashes. The bottom section provides a detailed chart of all sovereign defaults by country, region and year. It shows the repeating nature of sovereign default, a central theme of Reinhart and Rogoff's book."
After almost a century of the centrally planned dollar we’re delighted to present a timeline of the most amusingly disturbing speeches delivered by the Federal Reserve & Co.
The bulls have the ball in their court and are on the cusp of turning this recent price move into a multi-month barn burner.
For the Fed to continue ZIRPing, Twisting and QEing, it has to support the policy with a bleak assessment on the economy.
A peek into the 60's manipulation and why the CFTC is a joke.
- Fed Holds Off for Now on Bond Buys (Hilsenrath)
- Bonds Show Return of Crisis Once ECB Loans Expire (Bloomberg)
- Greek Debt Talks Enter Third Day After ‘Substantial’ Discussions (Bloomberg)
- Sharp clashes at Republican debate ahead of vote (Reuters)
- Lagarde Joins Warning on Fiscal Cuts Before Davos (Bloomberg)
- Investors exit big-name funds as stars fail to shine (Reuters)
- Payday lenders plead case to consumer agency (Reuters) - the EFSF included?
- EU Toughens Fiscal Pact Bowing to ECB Objections, Draft Shows (Bloomberg)
- Minister Urges Japan to Use Strong Yen (FT)
- China Eyes Pension Fund Boost for Stock Market (Reuters)
- China Manufacturing Contraction Boosts Case for Easing: Economy (Bloomberg)