Marc Faber does not mince words. He believes the money printing policies of the Federal Reserve and its sister central banks around the globe have put the world's currencies on an inexorable, accelerating inflationary down slope. The dangers of money printing are many in his eyes. But in particular, he worries about the unintended consequences it subjects the populace to. Beyond currency devaluation, it creates malinvestment that leads to asset bubbles that wreak havoc when they burst. And even more nefarious, money printing disproportionately punishes the lower classes, resulting in volatile social and political tensions. It's no surprise then that he's feeling particularly defensive these days. While he generally advises those looking to protect their purchasing power to invest capital in precious metals and the equity markets (the rationale being inflation should hurt equity prices less than bond prices), he warns that equities appear overbought at this time.
Eventually, people will discover that they cannot save in terms of dollars (those who don’t figure it out will be rendered economically irrelevant as their wealth is removed from their hands). Savings is a necessary prerequisite for investment. Investment is necessary for companies to grow, to develop new technologies, products, and markets. Growth is necessary to hire new workers. As existing companies achieve higher productivity of labor, and do not need as many workers to perform the same work, they lay off unneeded people. In a free market, the unemployed would quickly be hired by growing companies that expand and develop new businesses. But today’s structurally high unemployment can be traced back to Friedman’s quack prescription (among other government interference). Weakening the currency not only discourages savings, it also weakens businesses who have to keep the currency on their balance sheet and who have to import some of their inputs. When a currency loses value, then all who hold it incur a loss. It is not possible to employ workers and run a business in a country without holding significant amounts of its currency. Currency debasement therefore imposes constant losses on enterprises that try to operate in such an environment.
- Tapping oil from the SPR may be trickier than ever (Reuters)
- Why Quantitative Easing Is The Only Game in Town: Martin Wolf (FT)
- Lacker Says Fed May Need to Raise Target Interest Rate in 2013 (Bloomberg)
- Japan Debt-Financing Concern Clouds BOJ’s Bond Buying (Bloomberg) No worries - US will just buy Japan's bonds
- IMF Approves €28bn Loan to Greece (FT)
- Banks Want Fed to Iron Out 'Maiden' (WSJ)
- China 'Wealth Exodus' Underestimated (China Daily)
- Geithner Calls For Reforms to Boost Growth (FT)
- China Adds Treasuries For First Time Since July on Europe Woes (Bloomberg)
- Osborne Weighs 50p Tax Rate Cut To 45p (FT)
I applaud Smith's decision to bring the nature of Goldman's profit-making strategies to the forefront of the global population's discourse, as so many others have been doing through books, investigative journalism, and the Occupy movements over the past decade since my book, Other People's Money, was written after I resigned from Goldman. It would be great if Smith's illuminations would serve as the turning point around which serious examination and re-regulation of the banking system framework would transpire.
Confused why every asset class is up again today (yes, even gold), despite the pundit interpretation by the media of the FOMC statement that the Fed has halted more easing? Simple - as we said yesterday, there is $3.6 trillion more in QE coming. But while we are too humble to take credit for moving something as idiotic as the market, the fact that just today, none other than Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius came out, roughly at the same time as its call to buy Russell 2000, and said that the Fed would announce THE NEW QETM, as soon as next month, and as late as June. Furthermore, as Goldman has previously explained, sterilization of QE makes absolutely no difference on risk asset behavior, and it is a certainty that the $500-$750 billion in new money (well on its way to fulfilling our expectation of a total $3.6 trillion in more easing to come), in the form of UST and MBS purchases, will blow out all assets across all classes, while impaling the dollar. Which in turn explains all of today's action - dollar down, everything else (including bonds, which Goldman said yesterday to sell which we correctly, at least for now, said was the bottom in rates) up. Finally, as we said, yesterday, "In conclusion we wish to say - thank you Chairman for the firesale in physical precious metals." Because when the market finally understands what is happening, despite all the relentless smoke and mirrors whose only goal is to avoid a surge in crude like a few weeks ago ahead of the presidential election, gold will be far, far higher. Yet for some truly high humor, here is the justification for why the Fed will need to do more QE, even though Goldman itself has been expounding on the improving economy: "The improvement might not last." In other words, unless the "economic improvement" is guaranteed in perpetuity, the Fed will always ease. Thank you central planning - because of you we no longer have to worry about either mean reversion or a business cycle.
Why do families persist in taking on $100,000 student loans for mostly mediocre educations with mostly mediocre "benefits" in the job market? Because they feel they have no other choice. Why do people persist in mortgaging their future and accepting the yoke of debt-serfdom to own a house? Because they feel they have no other choice, and owning a house has become integral to the "American dream." Why do local state, county and city politicos continue playing absurd budget games, shuffling funds, borrowing from their employees' pension plans to make this year's pension plan contribution and similar threadbare tricks? You guessed it: they have no other choice, lest someone somewhere feel some pain. Why do our Federal "leaders" borrow $1.5 trillion each and every year now, fully 10% of the nation's total output, knowing full well that this level of borrowing will bankrupt the nation? (Don't forget to add in the "supplemental" off-budget borrowing.) You know: they have no other choice, lest someone somewhere feel some pain. So instead they keep the accelerating vehicle pointed straight for the cliff. There are only two end-states to this level of borrowing: hyper-inflation or default. Any other "choice" is mere fantasy.
- Obama, Cameron discussed tapping oil reserves (Reuters)
- Greek Bonds Signal $2.6 Billion Payout on Credit-Default Swaps (Bloomberg)
- China leader's ouster roils succession plans (Reuters)
- China’s Foreign Direct Investment Falls for Fourth Month (Bloomberg)
- Greek Restructuring Delay Helps Banks as Risks Shift (Bloomberg)
- Concerns Rise Over Eurozone Fiscal Treaty (FT)
- Home default notices rise in February: RealtyTrac (Reuters)
- China PBOC Drains Net CNY57 Bln (WSJ)
You can send a visual message to Ben...
Do not, for one minute, believe that the folks involved in the Crisis will get away with it. The only reason why we haven’t yet seen major players get slammed is because no one wants the system to crumble again. And the only way for the system to remain propped up is for the Powers That Be to appear to have things under control and be on good terms with one another. However, eventually things will come unhinged again. When this happens, the relationships between Wall Street, the Fed, and the White House will crumble to the point that some key figures are sacrificed.
As of this morning the Federal Reserve is officially on twitter and can be followed at @federalreserve. This is truly great news as it means that the US debt will have to be limited to at most 140 zeroes! Then again, after yesterday who cares about the Fed?Where is uber-boss Jamie Dimon's twitter account?
Going into the US open, European equity markets have carried across some risk appetite from last night’s Wall Street news that 15 out of 19 major US banks had passed the Fed’s stress test scenarios. This risk appetite is evident in Europe today with financials outperforming all other sectors, currently up over 2%. Data released so far today has been relatively uneventful, with Eurozone CPI coming in alongside expectations and Industrial Production just below the expected reading for January. Taking a look at the energy complex, WTI and Brent crude futures are seen on a slight downwards trajectory so far in session following some overnight comments from China, highlighting the imbalance in the Chinese property market, dampening future demand for oil. Looking ahead in the session, the DOE crude oil inventories will shed further light on the current standing of US energy inventories.
- Euro zone formally approves 2nd Greek bailout: statement (Reuters)
- In a First, Europeans Act to Suspend Aid to Hungary Unless It Cuts Deficit (NYT)
- UK Chancellor Looks at 100-Year Gilt (FT) - What? No Consols?
- Hilsenrath: Fed's Outlook a Tad Sunnier - (WSJ)
- Banks Shored Up By Stress Test Success (FT)
- U.S. dangles secret data for Russia missile shield approval (Reuters)
- Wen Warns of Second China Cultural Revolution Without Reform (Bloomberg)
- Wen Says Yuan May Be Near Equilibrium as Gains Stall (Bloomberg)
- Merkel Says Europe Is ‘Good Way’ Up Mountain, Not Over It (Bloomberg)