Over the last 16 years, it has become routine for “experts” and pundits to miss MAJOR issues by ignoring data points that don’t confirm their own views, only to later proclaim, “no one saw this coming” when a crisis erupts.
Far from maintaining economic stability and fostering prosperity, consumer price inflation targeting practically guarantees a pernicious wealth transfer year in and year out, a perpetual duping of unsuspecting employees and companies, and a permanent blind spot to hidden inflation.
"Nothing terribly catastrophic has happened yet, so we have decided to continue screwing responsible savers with interest rates that are at 5,000 year lows so that this dangerous asset bubble can persist..."
European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all fell in another quiet, low-volume early session. With oil entering a bull market yesterday, and set for its longest run of gains in 4 years after, overnight crude stumbled, and reversed early gains, falling for the first time in seven days driven by rebound in the dollar which gained versus all G-10 currencies with commodity currencies underperforming.
If you define "ransom" as "a payment exchanged contingent on the release of a hostage" then you find yourself forced to admit that President Obama lied last week when he aggressively denied (and was irked at the question) that he paid Iran a $400 million ransom for the return of 4 hostages. Today, The State Department's spokesperson John Kirby told the truth that the Iran payment was contingent on the prisoner release... but of course spun this 'ransom' payment as masterful diplomacy "deliberately leveraging the moment."
In the US the year-on-year trend for productivity has turned negative . Most central bankers dismiss this fact as a short-term aberration. But the Japanese economy provides an example of what interest rates at or near zero can do to a large, developed economy. The answer is not much: not much real growth; not much inflation - and, together, not enough nominal GDP growth to repay historic debt should yields on sovereign debt ever return to normal.
The Fed may have gotten everything wrong, as recent "research" by John Williams confirmed earlier this week, but when it comes to what's important the Fed is right on top of things. Things like starting its own Facebook page.
In the latest quiet trading session, European shares rose while Asian stocks fell and S&P futures were little changed. Minutes of the Fed’s last meeting damped prospects for a U.S. interest-rate hike, sending the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index doen 0.3%, approaching a three-month low. Dollar weakness continues to buoy commodities, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index set for the most enduring rally in more than two months, as WTI flirted with $47
A discussion of why any knee-jerk falling gold and silver price responses to more hollow “hawkish” Federal Reserve minutes or even to future too-little, too-late, actual small interest-rate increases should be completely disregarded.