Federal Reserve

This Could Be A Problem For Markets

Should John Taylor become Fed chair, it could be a substantial problem for risk assets because according to the Taylor Rule, the estimated Fed Funds rate should be not at 1.25% where it currently is but... 5.7%!

Investors Are Ignoring The Evidence At Their Peril

"Exuberance and confidence are at the highest levels on record, but the underlying stories are beginning to weave a tale of an economy that is very late in the current cycle... Importantly, these are not short-term stories either. The long-term picture for the economy and the markets from the three biggest factors (Debt, Deflation, and Demographics) continues to build."

The Fading Scent Of The American Dream

"This dynamic has yet to fully play out, but it will. Whatever you think of Trump, his election isn't the problem; it's merely a symptom of much deeper forces that will sweep our corrupt and rotten-to-the-core status quo into the dustbin of history."

Global Stocks Rise Oblivious Of Growing Geopol Risks; Oil, Commodities Jump On Kurdish Clashes

World stocks and commodities rose on Monday, boosted by upbeat Chinese data, while U.S. oil futures jumped to a near six-month high as escalating tensions between the Iraqi government and Kurdish forces threatened supply.  Global markets digested the large amount of weekend newsflow, and clearly liked what they saw as S&P futures were modestly in the green, as both European and Asian stocks are higher.

Buffett's Wrong - Why Market Valuations Are Not Justified By Low Interest Rates

"It's such a comforting, even satisfying assumption; the idea that 'lower interest rates justify higher valuations'...   Unfortunately, the convenience of investing-by-slogan is currently leading investors into what is likely to be one of the worst disasters in the history of the U.S. stock market..."

Eric Peters: "This Is The Nightmare Scenario For The Next Fed Chair"

"if we don’t see a sustained cyclical jump in wages, then yields won’t go up. And if yields don’t go up, then the asset price ascent will accelerate. Which will lead us into a 2018 that looks like what we had expected out of 2017; a war against inequality, a battle for Main Street at the expense of Wall Street, an Occupy Silicon Valley movement."

DARPA Asks HFT Traders How Hackers Will Crash The Market

Among the potential scenarios probed by the Pentagon: Hackers could inject false information into stock-data feeds, sending trading algorithms out of whack; or they could flood the stock market with fake sell orders and trigger a market crash.