Federal Reserve

The current surge in deflationary pressures is not just due to the recent fall in oil prices, but rather a global epidemic of slowing economic growth. While Janet Yellen addressed this "disinflationary" wave during her post-meeting press conference, the Fed still maintains the illusion of confidence that economic growth will return shortly. Unfortunately, this has been the Fed's "Unicorn" since 2011 as annual hopes of economic recovery have failed to materialize.

In 1927, the Fed lowered US rates to try to help Europe which was then in the middle of an economic debt crisis the same as today. It is very curious how history repeats and we have just witnessed the Fed yield to international pressure once again. In doing so, they are condemning US pension funds as well as the elderly to financial doom setting in motion the next financial crisis.

Recently released data from the Census Bureau is nothing short of devastating to anyone who has been pushing the absurd meme of a strong U.S. economy.

After so many years of the “new normal,” we have to be reminded just how extraordinary — and unprecedented — the Fed’s actions since 2008 have been. But does it not occur to bankers, much less the media breathlessly covering stock and bond markets, that these actions have set America on a hopelessly dangerous and unsustainable path? Or that placing so much economic power in the hands of a select few might not end well?

Just three short years ago, Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane appeared a lone voice of sanity in a world fanatically-religious Keynesian-esque worshippers. Admissions in 2013 (on blowing bubbles) and 2014 (on Too Big To Fail "problems from hell") also gave us pause that maybe someone in charge of central planning might actually do something to return the world to some semblance of rational 'free' markets. We were wrong! Haldane appears to have fully transitioned to the dark side, as The Telegraph reports, he made the case for the "radical" option of supporting the economy with negative interest rates, and even suggested that cash could have to be abolished.

Yellen was more dovish than expected which is bullish for gold and suggests that the long awaited for bottom for gold may have occurred in early August prior to recent market volatility.

• The bearish dovish Fed: Shares Fall After Federal Reserve Keeps Rates on Hold (WSJ)
• Developed, emerging markets diverge as Fed keeps rates steady (Reuters)
• Yellen May Emulate Taper Template and Raise Rates in December (BBG)
• Russia Raises Prospect of Sending Troops Into Combat in Syria (BBG)
• Rigged markets 1: U.S. Said to Investigate Chicago Trader as Spoof Probes Broaden (BBG)
• Rigged markets 2: Primary Dealers Rigged Treasury Auctions, Investor Lawsuit Says (BBG)
• Rigged markets 3: The Man Who Took KKR’s Stock for a Ride (WSJ)

"What scares me, or what worries me, is what the next downturn in the economy looks like, with asset prices where they are and a lesser ability of central banks to ease monetary policy."

News That Matters

"I am pleased the Federal Reserve under the leadership of Chair Yellen has chosen to exercise a prudent and cautious approach to safeguarding our economy by carefully weighing the full range of economic data in assessing whether to raise interest rates.  Moving to prematurely raise rates will endanger the critical economic progress we have made, and threaten any gains minorities have only begun to make on the tail end of this recovery. "

Just hours ago, we asked if the Fed's unofficial media mouthpiece had leaked the Fed decision. Sure enough...

We advise investors to fade out the short term noise emanating from the Fed today and from Janet Yellen and focus on the reality

Goldman Sachs said yesterday that financial markets are vulnerable because nobody can agree on what the Fed will do. While equity investors have been anticipating this moment with all the excitement and tension of a prizefight, as Bloomberg reports, bets on the outcome from the Federal Reserve’s rate decision are far more complicated than simply “win or lose” for stocks. Amid the tumultuous background, here are predictions of nine money managers and strategists on what to expect this afternoon...

The simple fact that the Fed is struggling to increase interest rates from near 0% after seven long years should give pause for concern. It underlines the vulnerability of the U.S. economy and means that another recession is very likely. Indeed, the huge levels of debt at all levels of U.S. society and the significant increase in global debt levels during the last seven years mean that another recession is almost certain.

How did our financial system weaken to the point where a quarter of a percent increase in rates is more than it can handle?