Federal Reserve

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The fact that the Core Inflation Rate in the US could stay above 2% for an entire year, and in the 2.3% range despite a strong dollar putting pressure on inflation for an entire year should tell the Federal Reserve something, namely they need to play catch up in raising interest rates.

Frontrunning: February 15

  • World stocks at 21-month highs on Yellen, U.S. outlook (Reuters); Dollar notches longest run of gains in five years before CPI data (Reuters)
  • Nervous About the ACA, GOP Divisions Emerge Over Repeal Effort (BBG)
  • Flynn Probed by FBI Over Calls With Russian Official (WSJ)
  • Russia Questions Mount for Trump White House Reeling From Flynn Fallout (BBG)
  • Trump knew for weeks aide was misleading over Russia (Reuters)

World's 2nd Largest Stockpile Of Gold Leaves The United States

Even after the Soviet Union fell, most governments still chose to keep their gold in New York. It was safe. America was a rich, trusted ally. Why bother moving it? Fast forward a few decades and the world has clearly changed. Germany was among the first out the door...

A New Jacksonian Era? Part 2

Trump will most certainly accomplish the relatively easy stuff – cutting taxes, building a wall, increasing funding for the military, spending more on infrastructure, and repealing Obamacare. If he wanted to leave a legacy on par with Andrew Jackson’s he will have to the hard stuff too. Will Trump have the courage to do any of the hard stuff? If not, the decline of the American Empire is inevitable.

Stockman: "What's Going On Today Is Complete Insanity"

"What's going on today is complete insanity," said David Stockman. "The market is apparently pricing in a huge Trump stimulus. But if you just look at the real world out there, the only thing that's going to happen is a fiscal bloodbath and a White House train wreck like never before in U.S. history."

Trump To Unveil "Passive-Aggressive" Currency War With China

Call it passive-aggressive currency war: the White House is exploring a ways to discourage China from devaluing its currency, without explicitly branding China a currency manipulator - the move move is the latest indication the Trump administration is softening its stance on China.

What Will Trump Do About The Central-Bank Cartel?

Mr. Trump doesn’t seem to be an “internationalist,” seeking to build a new world order by political and military means. If that is so, he will sooner or later have to come to grips with the Fed’s policies - most notably with its liquidity swap agreements.

Key Events In The Coming Humphrey-Hawkish Week

The key economic releases this week are CPI, retail sales, and industrial production on Wednesday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including Chair Yellen’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday (Humphrey-Hawkins).