Federal Reserve Bank

Key Events In The Coming Extremely Busy Week

The week ahead is striking in the sheer number of central bank speakers, but with the Fed on hold until December and the BoJ’s new framework now revealed, focus turns squarely from central banks to US politics. The first US presidential debate at the start of the week will be a key focus.

Dennis Gartman: "We Are Entering The “Zimbabwe-isation” Of The Global Capital Markets"

"We are, it seems to us, entering the period we shall call the “Zimbabwe-isation” of the global capital markets and we say that with all sincerity… and requisite trepidation.  This will end badly of course. These things always do, but until they end… until the music finally stops… the game has to be played and the music, as it plays, has to be enjoyed."

Key Events In The Coming Central Bank-Dominated Week

Central banks will take center stage this week, with the Boj and Fed within hours of each other, then also the RBNZ and Norges all delivering policy decisions. Of the four however, the BoJ will likely steal the spotlight, especially as we expect no changes in policy from the other three.

Atlanta Fed President Lockhart Announces He Is Stepping Down

And so another Fed president has decided to call it a day, when moments ago, Dennis Lockhart, president of the Atlanta Fed, announced he would step down on February 28, 2017. We are confident the line of (soon to be former) Goldman employees submitting their resumes to fill his slot is already around the block.

Goldman Slashes September Rate-Hike Odds As Hilsenrath Warns Of Divided Fed

Goldman Sachs' estimate of September rate-hike odds continue to collapse faster than Hillary Clinton as the absence of a clear signal from a series of speeches by Fed officials (concluding with Lael Brainard's headfake). Goldman have reduced their subjective odds for a hike next week to 25% from 40% previously (still above market expectations of 13%) but remains hopeful for December. However, as Fed-whisperer WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath warns, Yellen faces record levels of dissent as she "confronts a divided group of policy-makers."

Key Events In The Coming "Fed Blackout" Week

The spotlight turns to US data and Fed speakers ahead of the Fed blackout period this week. The BoE and SNB meet to decide policy but consensus expect no change from either. Elsewhere we get inflation data from the US, UK, Sweden & EZ (F), Q2 GDP from NZ & SW and labor market data from the UK & AU.

"Global Market Rout" - Bond Selloff Snowballs Into Stock Liquidations On "Stimulus Pullback" Fears

With traders in the US arriving at their desks, the global selling appears to be accelerating and as Bloomberg notes, "a selloff in fixed income is starting to snowball into a global market rout" driven by what Reuters dubbed "growing concerns that global central banks' commitment to the post-crisis orthodoxy of super-low interest rates and asset purchase programs may be waning."

Why The Fed Is "A Terrible Parent"

"My goal is for my children to always be happy, to never experience pain, or sadness, or disappointment. To always get what they want, and to never have to hear the word ‘No.’" ...But spoiled kids take greater and greater risks, do dumber and dumber things, because there are never any consequences for their actions.

"Blunt Language" - Goldman Explains Why It Is So Confident The Fed Will Hike In Under 3 Weeks

"Nothing happens without a good reason in these speeches, especially as far as monetary policy signals are concerned. The phrasing “case…has strengthened” was blunt language for a Fed Chair, which would have been unnecessary if she was only trying to convey a general sense that rates would be moving higher over time. There are plenty of other opportunities to prepare markets for a move before the December meeting."