Federal Reserve Bank
Just days after Fed whisperer Goldman Sachs made its first (of many) revisions to its Fed rate hike schedule, and no longer expects a March rate hike (if still somehow seeing 3 rate hikes in 2016), moments ago Fed mouthpiece Jon Hilsenrath reiterated the Fed's latest favorite catchphrase - that would be "watchfully waiting" for those who haven't paid attention - , and said that today's jobs report leave the Fed in limbo when it comes to the March rate hike decision. More importantly perhaps he adds that "Fed officials were expecting a slowdown." However, when one adds the 105,000 in prior month revisions, was is this big?
"Based on current valuations, the prices of most stocks don’t appear to have factored in a recession scenario, ‘hence the downside should we see a recession could be rather severe',... the shares of most companies could still fall another 50% or more from current levels."
Who said it? - "If it were positive to take interest rates into negative territory I would be voting for that."
Futures Jump After Bill Dudley Hints At Fed "Policy Error", Warns Of "Significant Consequences" From Strong DollarSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/03/2016 09:37 -0500
"A weakening of the global economy accompanied by further appreciation in an already strong dollar could also have "significant consequences." I read that as saying we're acknowledging that things have happened in financial markets and in the flow of the economic data that may be in the process of altering the outlook for growth and the risk to the outlook for growth going forward."
- Bill Dudley
"The world badly needs higher oil prices."
After last week's relatively quiet, on macro data if not central bank news, week the newsflow picks up with the usual global PMI survey to start, and end the week with the US January payrolls report.
Many believed that the NOK was backed by oil, not requiring a gold reserve. However, oil is no longer a scarce resource but an abundant commodity. Switzerland, Germany, America and other first world nations have gold reserves. Norway should have one too.
During the calendar year to December 2015, the Bundesbank claims to have transported 210 tonnes of gold back to Frankfurt, moving circa 110 tonnes from Paris to Frankfurt, and just under 100 tonnes from New York to Frankfurt.
It is the “Core of the Core” that now concerns us the most. That is where Federal Reserve (and global central bank) policies have left their greatest mark. It is at the “Core of the Core” where momentous misperceptions and market mispricing have become deeply entrenched. It’s the “Core of the Core” that has attracted enormous amounts of “money” over recent years. It’s also here where I believe leverage has quietly been used most aggressively. Over recent years it became one massive Crowded Trade. Now the sophisticated players must contemplate beating the unsuspecting public to the exits.
As the towering forces that are prevailing against failing global economic architecture and the pit of debt beneath that structure, as laid out below, it is clear that the 'Epocalypse' - encompassing the roots "economic, epoch, collapse" and "apocalypse" - is here, and it is everywhere. The Great Collapse has already begun. What follows are the megatrends that will increasingly gang up in the first part of 2016 to stomp the deeply flawed global economy down into its own hole of debt.
Free Corzine!!! Hasn't he already served enough time?
See For Yourself ...
Fed policymakers seem to be of the view that the almost zero federal funds rate and their massive monetary pumping has cured the economy, which now seems to be approaching a path of stable economic growth and price stability, so it is held. Yet, manipulations by the Fed could not bring the economy onto a path of stability and prosperity but, on the contrary, set in motion the menace of the boom-bust cycle. This raises the likelihood that the elimination of bubbles as a result of a tighter stance while good in the long-term for wealth generators is likely to trigger a severe economic slump in the near to medium term.
Bill Dudley and the Federal Reserve (Fed), in their efforts to influence economic growth may have created a speculative and consumption driven environment that is crushing productivity growth. Ingenuity, not debt, made America an economic powerhouse. If we are to resume down that path we need the Fed to end their “self-defeating” policies and in its place we must demand ingenuity from them. The Fed, along with government, needs to properly incent productivity. The Fed should start this arduous task by removing excessive stimulus which will take the speculative fervor out of markets and allow asset bubbles to deflate.
Congress ended the U.S. crude oil export ban last week. There is apparently no longer a strategic reason to conserve oil because shale production has made American great again. At least, that’s narrative that reality-averse politicians and their bases prefer. Congress’ decision to lift the 40-year U.S. ban on crude oil exports reflects the same misinformed and distorted thinking that declares that the world’s highest cost producer - tight oil - can somehow also be the world’s swing producer.