Federal Reserve Bank

The Last Time This Happened, The Market Crashed

A few days ago Charles Schwab, the investment brokerage firm, announced that the number of new brokerage accounts soared 44% during the first quarter of 2017. More specifically, Schwab stated that individual investors are opening up stock trading accounts at the fastest pace the company has seen in 17 years. Anyone remember what happened 17 years ago?

"Hell To Pay"

"No doubt, there’s hell to pay for 100 years of ever escalating financial insanity.  Take it in stride.  The downside is here and it’s not going away any time soon."

Fed's Kaplan Warns Trump "US Too Levered To Use Debt For Growth"

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan had lots to say this morning that, for now, the market has chosen to ignore. He warned "we are highly leveraged" implicitly warning President Trump that the country’s ability to boost growth through debt is limited (thanks to President Obama's doubling of the national debt as The Fed held rates at zero during his term?)

Frontrunning: April 5

  • No big bets ahead of Trump-Xi meeting; oil, metal prices firm (Reuters)
  • Senate on the Brink of ‘Nuclear Option’ in Gorsuch Vote (WSJ)
  • Le Pen Ambushed on Euro in French Debate (BBG)
  • Trump touts coal but utilities aren't listening (Reuters)
  • Trump Officials Alarmed China May Bid for Westinghouse Unit (BBG)

Multiple Bubbles Are Going To Bring America To Its Knees: "The Warning Signs Are There"

"The warning signs are there for anyone willing to see, and they are flashing red. Even cursory research into the numbers underlying our system will tell you that we’re on an unsustainable financial path. It’s simple math. And yet the system has proven far more durable than most people thought... The only reasonable explanation I can think of, is that the system is being held up by wishful thinking and willful ignorance."

Morgan Stanley Finds A "Stunning Divergence" In The Economic Data

"The divergence is stunning. Upside surprises appear to be completely driven by the soft data... we would not necessarily expect 'hard data' surprise indices to start racing higher if the factors behind the 2Q growth rebound remain narrowly confined to a few sectors as we expect..."

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the third estimate of Q4 GDP on Thursday, and the PCE report as well as Personal Income & Spending data on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.