Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Goldman "Explains" Why Yellen Lost Credibility: "In Our View, The Fed Has Been Unlucky"

"The May 18 minutes surprised virtually everyone by guiding strongly toward a rate hike in June or July, and Chair Yellen reinforced this message in her remarks at Harvard University on May 27. But the weak May employment report released on June 3 and increased concern about the UK referendum again triggered a sharp pivot, putting on hold the notion of further hikes. These dramatic shifts have frustrated many market participants. In our view, the Fed has been unlucky."

Overwhelmed By Debt, Nearly 1 In 5 Young Adults Live With Their Parents Or Grandparents

In America today, more than 60 million people live in multi-generational households.  That number is so large that it may seem difficult to believe, but the truth is that vast numbers of young adults have had to move back in with their parents and grandparents in recent years due to the deteriorating economy.  Millions of our young people cannot find decent jobs once they leave school, and millions of them are absolutely overwhelmed by debt.

Key Events In The Peak Vacation Season Week

With Wall Street hitting peak vacation season, it is a quiet week for news. The key economic release this week is CPI inflation on Tuesday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. Many will be looking for signs of hawkishness Minutes from the July FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday.

Frontrunning: August 1

  • Global stocks hit highest in a year but banks take shine off Europe (Reuters)
  • Fed’s Dudley Warns It Is Premature to Rule Out an Interest-Rate Increase This Year (WSJ)
  • Fed’s Kaplan Says September ‘On the Table’ If Data Support (BBG)
  • Europe's stress tests fail to ease investors' bank sector worries (Reuters)
  • Trump’s Attacks on Khan Family Roil Race But May Not Alter It (BBG)

Lessons From The Worst Banking Crisis In History

A very reliable rule of thumb to keep in mind during (and before) a banking crisis: don’t trust anyone in the establishment, especially a politician. It’s good advice these days.. Europe’s banks and its governments are caught like two drunken sailors holding each other up.

 

"We've Never Had A Shock To The System Like This" - Global Selloff Accelerates On Brexit, Italy, "Unknown" Fears

The flight to safety following last week's quarter-end window dressing is accelerating, with constant news and flashing red headlines of record low yields across DM government bonds once the norm, and as of moments ago Denmark's 10Y bonds joined the exclusive club of sub-zero yields; gold has soared to fresh multi-year highs above $1,370, the risk-off currency, the Yen, soaring and sending the USDJPY just above 100, while sterling crashed overnight once again below 1.27, levels not seen since 1985.

From Monica To Loretta - The Clintons Corrupt Absolutely

Wherever they go, whatever they do, ethics are trashed and suspicions of criminal conduct follow them like night follows day. It’s who they are and it’s self-delusional to believe another stint in the White House would make the Clintons better people. Power exacerbates rather than cures an absence of integrity. Yet there’s another dimension to their chronic crookedness. It is that, in addition to being personally corrupt, the Clintons are corrupters.

Global Institutions May Be Susceptible To Hackers, SWIFT Remains Vulnerable

The SWIFT rebuild will likely require the insights of an outlet such as Hyper Ledger, run by longtime Zero Hedge CDS and commodity trading icorn, Blythe Masters.  Hyper Ledger works with a consortium of organizations and corporations tasked with developing systems to offer protection for messages sent between  the worlds central banks, which will be based on blockchain technology.  A rebuild opens new concerns about the current integrity of the SWIFT platform and what problems may be lurking within it that we have yet to discover. 

Central Bankers Around The Globle Scramble To Defend Markets: BOE Pledges $345BN; ECB, Others Promise Liquidity

There was a reason why we warned readers two days ago that "The World's Central Bankers Are Gathering At The BIS' Basel Tower Ahead Of The Brexit Result": simply enough, it was to facilitate an immediate response when a worst-cased Brexit vote hit. And that is precisely what has happened today in the aftermath of the historic British decision to exit the EU.  It started, as one would expect, with Mark Carney who said the Bank of England is ready to pump billions of pounds into the financial system as he stands at the front line of Britain’s defense against a Brexit-provoked market crisis.

Key US Macro Events In The Coming Week

After last week's key event, the retail sales number, which the market discounted as being too unrealistic (and overly seasonally adjusted) after printing at a 13 month high and attempting to refute the reality observed by countless retailers, this week has a quiet start today with no data of note due out of Europe and just Empire manufacturing (which moments ago missed badly) and the NAHB housing market index of note in the US session this morning.