Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Frontrunning: May 9

  • China stocks plunge again as hopes for economic recovery fade (Reuters)
  • European Stock Gains Defy China Data That Hurt Metals; Oil Rises (BBG)
  • Yen falls after Tokyo warning (Reuters)
  • Soros Chart Signals BOJ Bond Buying Already Enough to Weaken Yen (BBG)
  • Dollar Jump Catches Traders Short in One More Currency Calamity (BBG)
  • Even China's Party Mouthpiece Is Warning About Debt (BBG)

US Futures, Europe Stocks Jump On Oil, USDJPY Surge; Ignore Poor China Data, Iron Ore Plunge

The overnight session has been one of alternative weakness and strength: it started in China where stocks tumbled 2.8% to a two month low following some unexpected warnings in the official People's Daily newspaper and poor trade data. Concerns about China, however, were promptly forgotten and certainly not enough to keep global assets lower, with European stocks gapping higher at the open and rallying from a one-month low, driven by a "surprising" surge in the USDJPY which has moved nearly 200 pips higher since its post-payrolls low. Another driver is the jump in oil, which rallied just shy of $46 a barrel, buoyed by Canadian wildfires that are curbing production and speculation that the Saudi Arabian oil minister succession will be bullish for oil prices.

Days After Wells Fargo Admits Defrauding The Government, NY Fed Rewards It With Primary Dealer Status

Ten days ago, in the latest example of how criminal Wall Street behavior leads to zero prison time, Wells Fargo admitted that it deceived and defrauded the U.S. government.  Its punishment: a $1.2 billion settlement, one which will ultimately be paid by the bank's shareholders as no executives go to prison. And now, less than two weeks later it's time for Wells to get its reward: the NY Fed just announced it would grant Wells Fargo the much coveted Primary Dealer status.

 

Startling Inflation News Illustrates The Failure Of Easy Money

Prices are actually falling faster than the official CPI number indicates, and have not picked up as oil has stabilized. In fact, the US has been in deflation for the past five months. So it’s no surprise that people who are actually buying the stuff that’s falling in price would register this fact and answer surveys with deflationary sentiments. It’s also no surprise that central banks, which presumably see the same data, would be looking for ways to ease even further (Japan and Europe) or walk back their previous threats to tighten (the US Fed) - apparently in the hope that increasing the dose will cure the credit addiction.

Key Economic Events In The Coming Week

While the market is still enjoying the post-NFP weekly data lull, economic data starts to pick up again in the coming days, alongside the start of the reporting season. Below are this week's key events.

Futures Spike After Bill Dudley Urges "Cautious Approach" As "Balance Of Risks Tilted To Downside"

Caution is called for because of Fed’s limited ability to reduce policy rate, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley says, Dudley comments in text of speech in Bridgeport, CT. “Although the downside risks have diminished since earlier in the year, I still judge the balance of risks to my inflation and growth outlooks to be tilted slightly to the downside

Former Fed Employee Avoids Jail, Gets $2,000 Fine For Stealing Fed Secrets On Behalf Of Goldman Sachs

Jason Gross was the latest former banker to make a mockery of the US judicial system when he was spared prison on Wednesday, for stealing NY Fed secrets on behalf of Goldman Sachs. Instead Gross, 37, was fined $2,000 by U.S. Magistrate Judge Gabriel Gorenstein in Manhattan and sentenced to a year of probation with 200 hours of community service after pleading guilty to a misdemeanor charge of theft of government property.