Federal Reserve Bank of New York
A paper recently published by the National Bureau of Economic Research confirms that a large percentage of the increase in college tuition can be explained by increases in the amount of available financial aid: "Essentially, [financial aid] lead to higher college costs and more debt, and in the absence of higher labor market returns, more loan default inevitably occurs."
We will not spend much time discussing what the FOMC did as tons of ink have been spilled on that already. We will rather spend more time on what the FOMC did not do.
Fed Reveals Rate Hike "Plumbing" Details: Removes Cap On Reverse Repos, Limits Each Counterparty To $30 BillionSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/16/2015 16:20 -0400
Perhaps even more important than the actual rate hike announcement, the one statement the market was particularly focused on was the Fed's "implementation note", which lays out the Fed's thought process on how it will actually raise rates in order to maintain the Fed Funds in the 0.25%-0.50% range. What it reveals is that in addition to removing the daily limit on aggregate borrowings through its overnight reverse repurchase facility, previously set at $300 billion (recall that according to Citi, the Fed may need to drain up to $1 trillion in excess liquidity to effect the 25 bps hike), it will have a per counterparty limit of $30 billion per day, which may or may not be enough.
Because when your year-end bonus depends on you not seeing it coming, you don't.
In High Stakes Game of the Future of Finance, Reggie Middleton Challenges Goldman Sachs Patent Filing With EaseSubmitted by Reggie Middleton on 12/04/2015 05:59 -0400
Year end 2015, we go from Ponzi scheme to failure to the thing every major global bank desires. The dilemma is, the ingenuity to excel in this space lies in scrappy young startups, not trillion dollar mega banks. Let me prove this to you, step by prior art step.
In the short run this will probably lead to dramatic and unexpected change in financial flows. Over the longer run, a much-overlooked problem emerges. Simply put, it is highly unlikely that market rates will respond as the Fed moves its target rate upwards; in this case, the FOMC will have lost all control.
Swap spreads recently took a nosedive and are once again trading at negative levels, even for shorter maturities. This market perversion suggest that Wall Street is a safer counterpart than the very institution that underwrites the whole fractional reserve fraud in the first place. To price in a higher risk premium on the US government than on US banks is a contradiction in terms so there need to be another explanation behind this puzzling market phenomenon... There is, and you're not going to like it.
As we noted previously, for the first time ever, primary dealers' corporate bond inventories have turned unprecedentedly negative. While in the short-term Goldman believes this inventory drawdown is probably a by-product of strong customer demand, they are far more cautious longer-term, warning that the "usual suspects" are not sufficient to account for the striking magnitude of inventory declines... and are increasingly of the view that "the tide is going out" on corporate bond market liquidity implying wider spreads and thus higher costs of funding to compensate for the reduction is risk-taking capacity.
Having noted the plunge in consumer spending expectations to record lows last month, The Fed faces an even bigger problem this month. Despite the apparent wage growth in Friday's magical BLS data, The New York Fed admits "public expectations of future income took a big hit," as the index suffered its biggest one-month decline on record. But the news gets even worse, as 3-year-ahead inflation expectations plunged to record lows (confirming the record low inflation expectations from UMich's) and entirely discounting Stan Fischer's inflation excuses last week. Fianlly, as stocks have stagnated this year as wealth creator for The Fed, consumer expectations of housing price gains have tumbled to series lows. It appears a desperate-to-hike-rates fed is cornered by, as UMIch previously noted, "a disinflationary mindset is taking hold."
The funds have flowed in a torrent into stocks, bonds, and real estate, just as 1940's NY Fed President Allan Sproul predicted. That flood of easy-money created the delta of plenty in which we live today. Unfortunately, it’s not likely to continue, because funny things happen when you do funny things to money.
- Dollar at three-month high as payrolls paralysis sets in (Reuters)
- 5 Things to Watch in the October Jobs Report (WSJ)
- China to Lift Ban on IPOs (WSJ)
- ArcelorMittal Is Latest Victim of China's Steel-Export Glut (BBG)
- 'Hope to see you again': China warship to U.S. destroyer after South China Sea patrol (Reuters)
- Giants Tighten Grip on Internet Economy (WSJ)
- Questions Surround Valeant CEO Pearson (WSJ)
JP Morgan & Morgan Stanley Have Their CEOs on the Board of the NY Fed: Regulatory Capture & How to Neutralize ItSubmitted by Reggie Middleton on 11/03/2015 09:38 -0400
Is having the CEOs of two of the largest, most powerful banks sit on the board of their own regulator literally worse than putting a fox in charge of the hen house? Here's why the name "Morgan" get's you a regulator board seat and what regular people can do about it.
In the latest example of Washington playing catch up in the global "war" on terror PR battle, “officials familiar with the matter” have told WSJ about a concerted effort to cut off the flow of dollars to ISIS. Allegedly, the US became concerned about the amount of hard currency being shipped to Iraq over the summer. The problem: the requested amounts didn’t seem to be consistent with the country’s economic fundamentals and so, the US cut off Iraq’s access to dollar funding, nearly plunging the country into crisis.
The Federal Reserve was supposed to serve the nation, however as even Bloomberg observes today, ended up "steamrolling" Main Street. One reason why: directors such as this one. Presenting former Morgan Stanley CEO, James Gorman, whose former employer got a $107 billion loan from the Federal Reserve to avoid implosion.
Anyone else found to have obtained at least "35 confidential documents" from the Fed on at least "20 occassions" would be sent straight to jail with a prison sentence anywhere between several decades and life. Goldman's punishment? 0.6% of its 2014 Net Income.