Federal Reserve Bank

It's Not The Economy, Stupid; Barron's Admits "It's A Bullard Market"

It appears the complete decoupling from economic reality of the so-called US equity 'market', combined with the collapse in a data-dependent Fed's credibility - topics we have extensively covered - has reached the mainstream. Barron's always-insightful Randy Forsyth exposes the ugly reality that this is a "Bullard" market and we are just living in it as the flip-flopping Fed head is "the most visible telltale of the shifting winds of Fed expectations. Investors navigating the choppy waters of the financial markets are forced to change tacks accordingly."

Just 3 Charts

Earlier today Fed President Evans said this "I think the economic fundamentals [of the US] are really quite good." As the following three charts show, there is only one thing that looks "quite good" and it is not 'economic fundamentals'...

Global Stocks Levitate Despite Ongoing Oil Weakness; China Stocks Jump After Easing Margin Debt

At the same time as the PBOC was cautioning about the dangers of excess debt (just as it injected a record amount of loans into the financial system), China's central bank warned about dangers from a stock market bubble, and perhaps just to assure the bubble gets even bigger, at the same time China eased on margin debt limits, in the process sending Chinese stocks soaring higher by 2.2%, and pushing the Shanghai Composite over 3000 for the first time in months as China now appears set to attempt another housing bubble "soft landing" while at the same time restarting its housing bubble.

Former Fed Employee Avoids Jail, Gets $2,000 Fine For Stealing Fed Secrets On Behalf Of Goldman Sachs

Jason Gross was the latest former banker to make a mockery of the US judicial system when he was spared prison on Wednesday, for stealing NY Fed secrets on behalf of Goldman Sachs. Instead Gross, 37, was fined $2,000 by U.S. Magistrate Judge Gabriel Gorenstein in Manhattan and sentenced to a year of probation with 200 hours of community service after pleading guilty to a misdemeanor charge of theft of government property.

US Recession Data Signals It's A Very Short Road To Capital Controls

Bottom line – the economy is due for a recession and the indicators suggest that one may already be in the works. But if you listen to SF Fed's Williams (for example), the narrative goes something like this: "Everything's awesome. Stop asking questions." What if The Fed is wrong (again) - Today, interest rates are at 0.25%... next to nothing. That means that even if the next (i.e. current) recession is extremely mild, interest rates are practically guaranteed to go below zero... And from there, it’s a very short road to capital controls.

Oil Prices Should Fall, Possibly Hard

"I hope that oil prices increase but cannot find any substantive reason why they should do anything but fall." As market balance reality re-emerges in investor consciousness and the false euphoria of a production freeze recedes, prices should correct to around $30. A little bad economic or political news could send prices much lower.

Stocks Squeeze Higher On "Super Tuesday" As Poor Macro Is Offset By Jack Lew's Soothing Words

With markets happy to put February in the history books because it marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline in global stocks, we move on to March 1st, which doubles down as 'Super Tuesday' in the US when Trump's presidential candidacy will almost certainly be sealed and a day in which stocks decided to join the super fun by super surging overnight on nothing but bad global macro and economic which however was promptly ignored and instead the focus was on ongoing central bank intervention and even more jawboning.

Was Middle-Class Retirement Just A Credit Bubble Fantasy?

One of the jarring - and until recently underreported - aspects of those seemingly-positive recent US jobs reports is the increasing skew towards older workers. Most new jobs have gone to people who in better times would be leaving to live off their savings. Now they’re coming back, frequently taking jobs they wouldn’t consider if money wasn’t so tight. And it’s apparently a lot worse for older women...