• Tim Knight from...
    02/06/2016 - 00:25
    What we must remember is this: we are in a bear market, and the risk of a countertrend rally is present, but confined. The opportunity on the downside movement dwarfs the risk of a push higher, as...
  • Phoenix Capital...
    02/06/2016 - 10:15
    2008 was caused by derivatives based on consumer-focused assets (houses). The next crisis will be driven by derivatives on government-focused assets (bonds).

Fibonacci

Tyler Durden's picture

Is The Echo Housing Bubble About To Burst?





Speculative bubbles that burst are often followed by an echo bubble, as many participants continue to believe that the crash was only a temporary setback. But, echo bubbles aren't followed by a third bubble.

 
Tim Knight from Slope of Hope's picture

Revising the Ratio





Here's what the chart looks like, and as you can see, it has thrust down to an interesting point not seen for about a decade:

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Economically Key Industrial Metals Complex Is Breaking Down





Over the past 6 weeks, the Industrial Metals Index has gotten pummeled, losing its entire post-”false breakdown” gains... and that downside could mean more than just losses in this space – it could be a warning sign for global economic demand.

 
Marc To Market's picture

Dollar Blues





Dollar downmove still seems corrective in nature.  Fed hike in September still seems most likely scenario.  Taalk of US recession is over the top when unemployment, broadly measured is falling and weekly initial jobless claims are at new cyclical lows.  

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Global Bond Rout Sends Futures Tumbling, Bund Has Sharpest Weekly Selloff In History





BOND SELLOFF DEEPENS; GERMAN 10-YR YIELD JUMPS 17 BPS TO 0.76%
SPANISH 10-YEAR BOND YIELD CLIMBS TO 2%; HIGHEST SINCE NOV. 24
ITALIAN 10-YEAR BOND YIELD CLIMBS ABOVE 2%; 1ST TIME THIS YEAR
10Y TREASURY YIELD CLIMBS 6BPS TO 2.31%, HIGHEST SINCE DEC. 8
U.K. 10-YR BOND YIELD CLIMBS 8 BPS TO 2.06%; MOST SINCE NOV. 24
JAPAN 10Y YIELD UP 7.5 BPS, SET FOR BIGGEST RISE SINCE MAY 2013

 
GoldCore's picture

Bank Deposits No Longer Guaranteed By Austrian Government





Emergency legislation can be drawn up over-night. While Austria may be the first in enacting bail-in legislation there is no guarantee that savers, particularly in the peripheral nations, will receive any indication that their deposits may be at risk.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

3 Things - New Highs, Dollar Rally, Margin Debt





"What the data doesn't tell us is whether it [the next correction] will be a 'buy the dip' opportunity or something much more significant. Given the length of current economic expansion and cyclical bull market, the fact that the Fed is extracting liquidity from the markets, the trend in margin debt, and the current extension of the markets above their long-term moving averages, there is cause for real concern."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Maybe Oil Goes to $70 on its Way to $40





When the conventional media ordains oil inevitably dropping to $40/barrel, we start looking for something else to happen - like oil going to $70/barrel. There are number of reasons this isn't as farfetched as it might seem at the moment.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

How Far Will the Stock Market Rebound Go?





In the past few years the stock market has always recovered from corrections to make new highs, and we cannot be sure if the party is indeed over. However, both from a fundamental and technical perspective, the probability that it is over seems quite high. Should market internals and trend uniformity to the upside improve again, this assessment would obviously have to be revised. However, there are surely more than enough warning signs extant now and every financial asset bubble must end at some point.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

5 Things To Ponder: Through The Looking Glass





“If I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is, because everything would be what it isn't. And contrary wise, what is, it wouldn't be. And what it wouldn't be, it would. You see? - Lewis Carroll, Alice's Adventures in Wonderland

 
GoldCore's picture

Gold Manipulated 0.1% Lower For Week As Gold Cartel 'Paints Tape'?





Gold bullion in Singapore climbed $9.29 to $1230.29 and gold was on track for a gain of almost 0.8% for the week prior to concentrated and continual selling in London and then on the COMEX pushed gold lower. Trading action had all the hallmarks of the Gold Anti Trust Action Committee's (GATA) 'gold cartel' and their determination to keep gold prices capped and "animal spirits" low in the gold market. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

How Big Would A 'Real Correction' Likely Be?





"If this is the beginning of a more important, intermediate term, correction; how large could it be?" There is one important truth that is indisputable, irrefutable, and absolutely undeniable: "mean reversions" are the only constant in the financial markets over time. The problem is that the next "mean reverting" event will remove most, if not all, of the gains investors have made over the last five years. Hopefully, this won't be you.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

No More Easy Money?





There isn’t much work out there on exactly how much “House money” gamblers or investors are willing to lose before they know to walk away (or run). Fans of technical analysis know their Fibonacci retracement levels by heart – 24%, 38%, 50%, 62% and 100%. Those are the moves that signal the evaporation of house money confidence as investors sell into a declining market. There isn’t much statistical analysis that any of those percentage moves actually mean anything, but enough traders use these signposts that it makes them a useful construct nonetheless.   The only other guideposts I can think of relate to the magnitude of any near term market decline. One 5% down day is likely more damaging to investor confidence than a drip-drip-drip decline of 5% over a month or two. The old adage “Selling begets selling” feels true enough in markets with a lot of “House money” on the line. After all, you don’t want to have to walk home from the casino after arriving in a new Rolls-Royce. 

 
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