Anecdotal evidence from press reports, survey data and positioning data all agree on one point: very few people believe that the recent rally could actually be for real. With a pullback underway, we now have a chance to judge its nature – this should soon tell us if the recent rally was just another fluke or if it retains the potential to become a more sustained advance.
Stocks of “vice” industries like alcohol and tobacco are showing leadership – that hasn’t always been good news for the market.
The ability of the Nasdaq 100 to overcome nearby resistance would be one of the first price-based signs that the current stock rally may be more than just a mean-reversion bounce.
With the Federal Reserve still hinting at raising interest rates, but trapped by weak economic growth, will the next big move by the Fed be another form of monetary accommodation instead? Or, are the underlying dynamics of the economy and market really strong enough to shake off the recent weakness and continue its bullish ascent?
We don’t label many spots on U.S. equity charts as “make or break” for the broad market. However, the mid-430?s area on the Value Line Geometric Composite is as critical a level as we can give you in any index or security.
Each and every day, we are witnessing the ongoing global selloff inflict more and more damage to the post-2009 cyclical bull market. And while that bull may not be declared dead for some time, it is now being wounded enough daily to warrant very seriously considering that possibility.
For investors, the markets have been sending a fairly clear warning signal. Market topping processes take time to develop fully and, unfortunately, are only fully recognized in hindsight. The problem in waiting for "recognition" is that the destruction of capital is already far larger than previously expected. This leads to a series of "psychological" responses that exacerbate the problem such as "hoping to get back to even." The last point is critically important. In the world of investing, "hope" has never been an investment strategy that one could profit by. It likely won't be successful this time either.
A failure of the current key support area would signify a deepening of these problematic trends that have unfolded over the past month. And as bad as things have been this past month, a further acceleration could be devastating.
While investors (or more likely, traders) often agonize over each and every tick of a market, there are undoubtedly some junctures that are more critical than others. European equities appear to be at such a juncture presently.
From a financial market psychology standpoint it is however very important that central bankers don’t appear clueless. A majority of market participants needs to be able to suspend disbelief to an sufficient extent, i.e., they must be able to share in the collective hallucination that central bankers actually do know what they are doing. When it is no longer possible to maintain this facade, many things are likely to be suddenly questioned – and among these is the question whether it makes sense to remain exposed to yet another gargantuan asset bubble.
This key barometer of global equities dropped to a level that it could ill-afford to lose. And while a bounce should transpire from here, the fact that the index has been traversing this level for the past 8 days reminds us that significant potential risk awaits should it fall off the precipice.
There's a debate in professional circles as to whether the stock market is in a correction or a bear market. It makes a difference...
Wax on Wax off,risk on today risk off tomorrow.....things could spiral out of control rather quickly