Financial Regulation

Why Blackrock Isn't Worried At All About Record Low Volatility

"Low stock market vol only seems to keep getting lower. Yet we believe there are good reasons for vol to be subdued. Looking back, we find low-vol regimes, when U.S. equity volatility averages 10%, can last for years. That means realized U.S. equity vol has historically stayed low for remarkably long periods of time."

House GOP Unveils 2018 Budget: Here Are The Highlights

On Tuesday morning, House Republicans released a fiscal 2018 budget plan on Tuesday that could pose a major new political test for President Donald Trump's legislative agenda by combining tax reform with controversial spending cuts. Here are the highlights.

Dollar Tumbles, Euro Soars After Obamacare Repeal Dies; China Intervenes To Halt Rout

The Bloomberg Dollar Index tumbled to a fresh 10-month low after two more Republican defections on Monday night doomed the proposed GOP healthcare plan in the Senate. And while Treasuries rose on concerns about inflationary pressures and the viability of the Trump stimulus agenda, S&P futures rebounded gingerly from session lows, and were up 0.1%

Sleepy Overnight Session Interrupted By Chinese Market Turmoil

While it was indeed a generally quiet session (with Japan markets closed), US equity futures continued their run into record territory (ES up 0.1% to 2,458.50), and Europe fractionally lower, the early Monday focus was on the previously discussed turmoil for Chinese markets where despite a solid set of Chinese data small caps tumbled, selling off into the close after further warnings of regulatory scrutiny and deleveraging,

Janet Yellen Is About To Speak: Here's What To Look For

Fed Chair Yellen will be testifying to the House Financial Services committee at 1000EDT, followed by testimony tomorrow before the Senate Banking Committee, however her prepared remarks will be released 90 minutes earlier, at 8:30am. Courtesy of RanSquawk, here are the main things to look for in her prepared testimony as well the subsequent Q&A...

Frontrunning: July 11

  • Trump Looks to Wall Street for Fed Bank Regulator (WSJ)
  • Rates play prods dollar to four-month high versus yen, kiwi dollar falls (Reuters)
  • Kaspersky Lab Has Been Working With Russian Intelligence (BBG)
  • Buffett’s Berkshire Moves Away From Stock Picking (WSJ)
  • OPEC's Barkindo says all producers should help balance market (Reuters)

IMF Slashes US GDP Forecast, Says Trump's Growth Target Is "Unrealistic"

The IMF has cut its US GDP forecast to 2.1% in 2017 from 2.3% projected in April and to 2.1% for 2018 from 2.5% previously, it said in a statement following its U.S. Article IV Consultation, and warned that the U.S. is unlikely to meet Trump’s target of 3% annual growth.

Frontrunning: June 14

  • Federal Reserve Expected to Deliver Rate Increase (WSJ)
  • Fire engulfs London tower block, at least six dead, more than 50 injured (Reuters)
  • Children lost, baby thrown to safety (Reuters)
  • Democrats Accuse Sessions of ‘Stonewalling’ (BBG)
  • World stocks march on as Fed rate hike looms, dollar steady (Reuters)

Qatar Crashes In Escalating Gulf Crisis; Oil Fails To Rebound As Global Stocks Dip

S&P futures point to a slightly lower open ahead of today's US non-mfg ISM and Service PMI data. European shares fall, while Asian shares are little changed. Several European countries are closed for Whit Monday leading to subdued trading. Following the latest unexpected Gulf Crisis overnight, in which Gulf nations cut all diplomatic relations with Qatar amid stunning allegations of funding terrorism, oil spiked but has since pared almost all gains.

What Is Causing China's Yield Curves To Invert: UBS Answers

The inverted curve reflects a contradiction between market expectations on policies and economic fundamentals. On one hand, the slowdown of economic growth may prevent the back end of the yield curve from further going up. On the other hand, financial institutions' funding costs have kept rising but the financing costs for the real economy measured by loan rates have not risen that much.