Now that even the IMF has admitted Greece has an unsustainable debt problem with a debt-to-GDP ratio which will soon cross 200% after its third bailout (even if it leaves open the question what the IMF thinks about Japan's debt "sustainability") we wonder what the IMF thinks when looking at Greece's net government liabilities, which as SocGen's Albert Edwards reminds us are rapidly approaching 1000%. Which incidentally means that Greece is only marginally better than the USA, whose comparable net liability is a little over 500%, while its other nearest comparable is none other than France, whose next president may will be "Madame Frexit" and whose biggest headache will be how to resolve government promises to creditors and retirees that are five times greater than the country's GDP.
In her euro-hegemonic role Germany failed to properly handle the Greek Crisis. What economics have been whispering among themselves after the scandalous Brussels Agreement of July 13th is now on the public discussion. One of IMF’s former European bailouts official, Ashoka Mody made it very clear in his article on Bloomberg on Friday morning: It’s Germany not Greece that has to leave the eurozone.
Last Sunday, Eurozone countries submitted yet another ultimatum to Greece: implement a whole round of reforms, from eliminating early retirement over scrapping exemptions from sales tax to opening shops on Sunday, and we’ll start negotiations on providing a new bailout of possibly €86bn from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the Eurozone’s bailout scheme, which will carry yet another series of strings attached. As Finland’s Foreign Minister Timo Soini said this week about the idea of a third Greek bailout round: “the Finnish public can’t understand that this is allowed to continue”. Can anyone else?
Remember, at the end of the day, it’s all about the big banks’ derivative exposure, NOTHING else. This is what has driven every Central Bank action since 2008. And it’s what will drive Europe’s future negotiations for a 3rd Greek Bailout.
And so the 2015 season of the Greek drama is coming to a close following last night's vote in Greek parliament to vote the country into even more austerity than was the case before Syriza was voted into power with promises of removing all austerity, even with Europe - which formally admits Greece is unsustainable in its current debt configuration - now terminally split on how to proceed, with Germany's finmin still calling for a "temporary Grexit", the IMF demanding massive debt haircuts, while the rest of Europe (and not so happy if one is Finnish or Dutch) just happy to kick the can for the third time.
Back in February, when the ill-fated Greek attempt to renegotiate its existing bailout (instead culminating with a new, €86 billion bailout program 5 months later) was launched, Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem rejected a request for a short-term financing agreement to keep the country afloat while it renegotiates the terms of its bailout program. "We don’t do bridge loans, Dijsselbloem told reporters in The Hague", when asked about Greece’s request. Turns out "we do" after all.
"The dramatic deterioration in debt sustainability points to the need for debt relief on a scale that would need to go well beyond what has been under consideration to date - and what has been proposed by the ESM. European countries would have to give Greece a 30-year grace period on servicing all its European debt, including new loans, and a very dramatic maturity extension, or else make explicit annual fiscal transfers to the Greek budget or accept 'deep upfront haircuts'."
Or, more simply: "Mark it zero."
In the final act of what has become a modern Greek tragedy, lawmakers will now be forced to choose between "approving" what is effectively a German overthrow of the Greek government, or face the collapse of the banking system and an economic depression of unimaginable propotions.
While Greek PM Alexis Tsipras is busy figuring out how best to go about pushing the "deal" he reached on Monday morning in Brussels through parliament, EU finance ministers are scrambling to put together billions in bridge financing that will hold Athens over until the activation of the ESM program which is likely at least four months away. Although it's as yet unclear which "least bad" option is preferable for Greece's external debt, Wolfgang Schaeuble has an idea for how the country might pay public sector employees.
Is the Greek "deal" falling apart already?
STUBB SAYS FINLAND CAN'T AGREE TO NEW LOANS FOR GREECE
KAMMENOS: GREEK PM TSIPRAS WAS BLACKMAILED AT EU SUMMIT
Despite the euphoria in global equity markets, The FT's Wolfgang Munchau - once one of the keenest euro enthusiasts - warns regime change is coming in Europe. The actions of the creditors has "destroyed the eurozone as we know it and demolished the idea of a monetary union as a step towards a democratic political union," Munchau exclaims, fearing they have "demoted the eurozone into a toxic fixed exchange-rate system, with a shared single currency, run in the interests of Germany, held together by the threat of absolute destitution for those who challenge the prevailing order." He concludes rather ominously, "we will soon be asking ourselves whether this new eurozone, in which the strong push around the weak, can be sustainable."
Now that Greece has capitulated and offered up its sovereignty in what can only be described as an unconditional surrender to Berlin and Brussels, here's what's next for the country, the government, and the Greek people.
Deal Struck Following Total Capitulation By Tsipras: Market Awaits Greek Reaction To Draconian Deal TermsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 07/13/2015 06:16 -0400
Just around 9am CET, after a 17-hour mammoth all-night session, Greece did manage to cobble together a "deal" if one may call this latest embarrassing can-kicking that, which was nothing short of total capitulation by Tsipras. As part of the deal, Greece "surrendered to European demands for immediate action to qualify for up to 86 billion euros ($95 billion) of aid Greece needs to stay in the euro" in the words of Bloomberg.
There is democratic capitalism, and there is fascist capitalism. What we have today is fascist capitalism; and the following will explain how it works, using as an example the case of Greece. Simply out - The whole system is a money-funnel, from the public, to the aristocracy.
"It's Not Possible To Reach A Deal Today" - EU Summit Canceled As Leaders Scramble To Keep The Dr€am AliveSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 07/12/2015 10:10 -0400
It was a weekend in which, according to traders, Greece facing an "absolutely final" was going to be saved. Instead, it may go down in history as the weekend in which the Eurozone finally split and its long-overdue disintegration began.