Fisher

The better tone in risk markets is largely being driven by encouraging economic data from the US and Europe, which as a result saw Bunds trade in negative territory. Of note, ECB’s Liikanen has said that inflation is not a particular concern in Europe, adding that the ECB has never said that there is an interest rate floor. On the other hand, Gilts are being supported by comments from BoE’s Fisher, as well as less than impressive GDP report. Nevertheless, EUR/USD took out touted barrier at the 1.3400 level earlier in the session, while USD/JPY is trading in close proximity to an intraday option expiry at 80.60.

We have posted various extracts from this piece from Credit Suisse previously. We will post from it again, because, to loosely paraphrase Lewis Black, it bears reposting... especially in the context of the latest and greatest Greek "bailout" (of Europe's bankers), which incidentally, will achieve nothing and merely bring the country one step closer to a military coup and/or civil war.

Earlier in the week we began discussing the stigma that would likely be attached to the banks that decide to borrow from the ECB via the LTRO. Many talking heads including Mario Draghi himself, arbiter in chief of all risky collateral in Europe, dismissed this - reflecting back at the compression in credit spreads in the market-place as evidence that all was well and confidence was returning. In the last week our (senior unsecured debt) index of LTRO-ridden banks has underperformed non-LTRO-ridden banks by 23bps to a 75bps differential. This is the largest divergence since the LTRO began and corrects off mid-Summer tight levels of difference as the critical flaw that we also pointed out earlier in the week (that of the implicit subordination of bank assets via ECB's LTRO collateralization). Credit Suisse agrees with us and expounds on 'the flaw' in the LTRO scheme noting that the market is fickle and self-sustaining at times (as we have seen) but over time (and that time appears to be up this week), the market will weigh the liability side of the balance sheet versus the asset side, less haircuts (which implies haircuts will become the de facto capital requirements) and inevitably (given bank earnings potential) reflect this huge differential - most specifically in the senior unsecured debt market. With few shorts left to squeeze, spreads back at pre-crisis levels and financials having dramatically outperformed even large gains on sovereigns, the weakness in senior financial debt in Europe this week is more than just a canary in the coal-mine, it should become the pivot security for risk appetite perception.

Remember robosigning and the whole fraudclosure scandal? In a few days you can forget it. Because in America, the cost of contractual rights was just announced, and it is $25 billion: this is the amount of money that banks will pay to settle the fact that for years mortgages were issued and re-issued without proper title and liens on the underlying paper, courtesy of Linda Green et al. Why is this happening? Because staunch hold outs for equitable justice (at least until this point), the AGs of NY and California folded like cheap lawn chairs (we can't wait to find what corner office of Bank of America they end up in), but not before the one and only intervened. From the WSJ: "The Obama administration made a full-court press over the past four days to secure the support of key state attorneys general, including those from Florida, California and New York." Nothing like a little presidential persuasion to help one with overcoming one's conscience. Because in America the push to abrogate the very foundation of contractual agreements comes from the very top. But wait, there's more - just to wash its hands of the guilt associated with this settlement which shows once and for all that the Democratic administration panders as much if not more to the banking syndicate as any republican administration, as it announces one settlement with one hand, with the other the US will sue banks over the mortgage reps and warranties issue covered extensively here, in the most glaringly obtuse way to distract that it is gifting trillions worth of contingent liabilities right back to the banks, not to mention discarding the whole concept of justice. From the WSJ: "Federal securities regulators plan to warn several major banks that they intend to sue them over mortgage-related actions linked to the financial crisis, according to people familiar with the matter. The move would mark a stepped-up regulatory effort to hold Wall Street accountable for its sale of bonds linked to subprime mortgages in 2007 and 2008. At issue is whether the banks misrepresented the poor quality of loan pools they bundled and sold to investors, the people said." Wait, let us guess -that particular lawsuit will end up in a... settlement? Ding ding ding. We have a winner. All today's news succeed in doing is finally wrapping up any and all legal loose ends, so that banks can finally wrap all outstanding litigation overhangs at pennies on the dollar. And if at the end of the day, they find themselves cash strapped, why the US will simply loan them more cash of course.

Our bullish premise rests on Greece being fixed.

In contrast with better news from macro data, the negotiations about the next Greek package intensified and this will likely remain the key focus in the upcoming week. On one hand, the present value reduction in a PSI has still not been formally agreed. On the other, the Greek Government still has to commit to more reforms in order for the Troika to agree to a new program. A key deadline for this commitment is on Monday at 11am local time in Athens. Eurogroup President Juncker has talked openly about the possibility of a default on Saturday in the German weekly Der Spiegel. Beyond the ongoing focus on Greece, the week sees a relatively heavy concentration in central bank meetings, including the RBA, ECB, BOE, Poland, Indonesia and a few others. On the data side, the focus is likely on the December IP numbers due in a number of countries, including in some key Eurozone countries (Germany, Italy, France).

While Europe's financial services sector equity prices have retraced almost half of their May11 to Oct11 losses as we are told incessantly not to underestimate the impact of the LTRO, Morgan Stanley points out the other side of the balance sheet will continue to sag. While short-term liquidity (at least EUR-based liquidity as USD FX Swap lines are back at record highs this week) may have seen some of its risk culled, the real tail risk of the 'Great Deleveraging' has only just begun. As MS notes, we may have avoided a credit crunch but European banks could delever between EUR1.5 and EUR2 Trillion over the next 18 months as the unwind is far from over. History suggests that over a longer time-frame, around five to six years - the deleveraging could reach EUR4.5 Trillion assuming zero deposit growth and the LTRO will slow but not stop the process. As we discussed last night, this deleveraging will inevitably lead to continued contraction in European lending to the real economy (no matter how much liquidity is force-fed to the banking system) which will most explicitly impact Southern and Peripheral Europe and the Emerging Markets of Central and Eastern Europe. In the meantime, we assume the Central Banks of the world will do the only thing they know, print and funnel liquidity to these increasingly zombified financial institutions; and while Dicky Fisher was calming us all down this evening on our QE3 expectations (given Gold and Silver's recent price action), it seems perhaps even the Fed is getting nervous at just how little surprise factor they have left given such a ravenously hungry deleveraging and insatiable need to maintain the market/economy's nominally positive appearances.

While we first presented Bill Dudley's financial disclosure two days ago, we did so to present the New York Fed's president, and former Goldman managing director's, implicit need to perpetuate the status quo from even purely personal wealth reasons (AIG and GE waiver issues aside). Yet that a Fed member, especially a Goldman alum, is deeply enmeshed within the fabric of the existing, and failing, monetary system is not all that surprising. What is far more surprising, is that the Fed's FOMC may well have a gold bug within its midst, because we were rather surprised to find that none other than the Dallas Fed's Dick Fisher, who however is no longer a voting Fed president in the 2012 year, is a proud owner of at least $1 million worth of Gold in the form of the GLD ETF....and another up to $250K in physical (not paper) platinum. Which begs the question: is Fisher the only Fed president to have seen the light and to put a substantial portion of his wealth in the only asset class that benefits in real terms, from the perpetuation of the Fed's dollar, and fiat broadly, debasement strategy?

Punxsutawney Ben, who just saw the printer's shadow, and predicts six more trillion of free money, will address the House Budget Committee later this morning. We will also get the latest BS from the BLS how thousands of mass layoffs every day result in a drop in initial claims.

Back in the 1930's, Irving Fisher introduced a concept called the 'debt supercycle.' Simply put, it posits that when there is a buildup of too much debt within an economy, there reaches a point where there simply is no other available solution but to let it rewind. We are at that point in our economy, as are most other major economies around the world, claims John Maudlin, author of the popular Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter and the recent bestselling book Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything. For the past several decades, excessive and increasing amounts of credit in the system have allowed us to live above our means as both individuals and nations. We've been able to have our cake and eat it, too. Now that the supercycle has ended and the inevitable de-leveraging cycle is staring us in the face, we will be forced to set priorities in a way that has been foreign to our society for over a generation.

The biggest FOMC news released today was not the December minutes - there was absolutely no surprise there. The biggest news, by far, is that as we wrote a few weeks ago, the composition of the FOMC voting members changes drastically as of January 1, with Hawks Fisher, Kocherlakota and Plosser now out of the voting rotation, and replacing them will be the gaggle of ferocious doves Pianalto, Lockhart and Williams. In fact the only hawk left in the Fed as of today through the end of the year is Richmond Fed's Jeffrey Lacker who has shown substantial dovishness in the past. In other words, from a rotation of 7 and 3, the Fed is now uber-dovish by a 9 to 1 majority. So does this mean that printing is imminent? Stay tuned and find out in 3 short weeks: the January FOMC statement comes out on January 25. The only good news: Charles "the fire hydrant" Evans is finally out.

In his typically anti-prosaic manner UBS' Art Cashin draws the parallels between Caesar's political alliances & apolitical dalliances and the refreshing honesty of Dallas Fed's Fisher with the hope of a new spirit of cooperation blossoming among European leaders and how we lost some belief yesterday afternoon.

While Fed's Lockhart earlier opined on his 'hope' that rates will drop under 'Twist' (and we remind him that all but the 30Y are now higher in yield than before Twist was announced) but expects its impact to be modest, Fed's Fisher just lost-the-plot with his truthful explanation on why he dissented. Speaking in Dallas, Bloomberg reports some rather refreshingly honest headlines from the outspoken Fed President:

*FISHER SAYS FED POLICY `HAS YET TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF WORKING'

*FISHER SAYS BENEFITS OF OPERATION TWIST DON’T OUTWEIGH COSTS

*FISHER SAYS RECENT FOMC POLICIES LIKELY TO BE INEFFECTIVE

*FISHER SAYS FOMC POLICIES MAY WORK AGAINST JOB CREATION

*FISHER SAYS OPERATION TWIST WILL INCREASE INCENTIVES TO SAVE

The quote, again, for those who missed the headline, is:

• My long-standing belief is that the Federal Reserve should never enact such asymmetric policies to protect stock market traders and investors. I believe my FOMC colleagues share this view.

Oh, so 3 years after doing everything in their power to "protect" the dumbest momos ever conceived, spawning countless newsletters and twitter services that believe they provide value but merely fool others into chasing momentum, the Fed gets religion?

No thanks Dick, please Fed continue protecting stock traders: that way when you finally blow up you will take every idiotic, momentum chasing Tom, Dick and Harry with you.

Some brutal truth from the Dallas Fed's Fisher

• FISHER SAYS THERE IS `PRICE' FOR `TINKERING' MORE WITH POLICY (about $1MM per FOMC Member)
  
• FISHER SAYS THINGS WILL BE WORSE IF FED JUST PRINTS MORE MONEY (there is no money printing... the Chairsatan said so)
  
• FED'S FISHER SAYS `MONETARY POLICY HAS EXHAUSTED ITSELF (but the Chairsatan just said the Fed is prepared to confirm its madness by doing for the third time what failed twice already)
  

Ignore the second bullet point: according to the Fed Chairman and chartalists it is all just an asset swap. "There is no money printing" is what one hears all day long after all. Or wait, maybe someone else is confused, and perhaps Fisher is actually telling the truth. Oh well, semantics. Either way, Fisher's pink slip is in the mail.