Flight to Safety

Goldman: The Last Two Times P/E Multiples Expanded This Much, The Result Was A Historic Crash

"The current P/E expansion cycle is now one of the largest in history. Since September 2011, S&P 500 forward P/E has grown by 75% (from 10x to 18x). This expansion has only been surpassed twice since 1976, when the multiple rose by 111% from 1984-1987 (ending with the 22% Black Monday collapse) and by 115% from 1994-1999 (ending with the Tech Bubble pop)." - Goldman Sachs

The Prospects For Money

"In my view, this new bout of turmoil in financial markets is the prelude to the final demise of government currency..."

"We've Never Had A Shock To The System Like This" - Global Selloff Accelerates On Brexit, Italy, "Unknown" Fears

The flight to safety following last week's quarter-end window dressing is accelerating, with constant news and flashing red headlines of record low yields across DM government bonds once the norm, and as of moments ago Denmark's 10Y bonds joined the exclusive club of sub-zero yields; gold has soared to fresh multi-year highs above $1,370, the risk-off currency, the Yen, soaring and sending the USDJPY just above 100, while sterling crashed overnight once again below 1.27, levels not seen since 1985.

Pound Plummets To New Lows; 10Y Gilts Slide Under 1%; British Banks Halted After Crashing

Things are going from bad to worse for the UK. "We’ve seen so many developments around Brexit over the weekend since the FTSE closed and things are now looking even more concerning," Angus Nicholson of IG Ltd., said. "It’s hard to have any idea about where fair value for the pound should be when you look at the fact that Scotland and Northern Ireland could no longer be part of the U.K. within the next year or two."

UBS' Trading Roadmap For The "Day After" Brexit

Moments ago we presented a contrarian thesis from Greg Peters of how markets would react to a Leave vote (and by impliocation, Remain). Next, we go back to a more conventional model of how assets would react, and present "a roadmap for the 'Day After'" from UBS, which seeks to answer the question "at what level would we buy or sell each key asset class in either a Remain or a Leave scenario?" It then show ranges of the potential near-term market reactions.

Frontrunning: June 15

  • Osborne Warns of Brexit Tax Toll as ‘Leave’ Gains in Polls (BBG)
  • Clinton wins D.C. primary, has 'positive' meeting with Sanders (Reuters)
  • Federal grand jury could charge wife of Orlando shooter (Reuters)
  • Brexiteers swiftly closing in on Remain as poll reveals there’s just one point between the two sides (Sun)
  • Trump gains slightly on Clinton after Florida attack: Reuters/Ipsos poll (Reuters)

Soaring Brexit Fears Spark Global Flight To Safety, Send 10 Year Bunds Tumbling Below 0%

The UK EU referendum is suddenly totally dominant in financial markets. The increased focus comes as the leave campaign has gathered steam as 4 polls yesterday afternoon/evening put the 'leave' campaign ahead. As a result of the continued global scramble for safety, German 10Y bunds finally dropped below 0% for the first time ever, while global risk assets are red around the globe.

Gold "Flight To Safety" Surges Amid Biggest Junk Bond Outflows In History

Something happened this week that has never happened before. While outflows from equity ETFs soared, the $3.6 billion redemptions from high yield bond ETF HYG this last few days is the largest ever - almost twice as big as the previous largest outflows (seen in May last year). As Bloomberg reports, the withdrawals from equity and credit funds highlighted the lack of faith in the rally that helped stocks briefly erase their annual losses last month. Equity traders have remained on the sidelines, with volume down in recent weeks as investors sought safer assets such as gold.