Flight to Safety

Global Stocks Tumble; Gold, Safe Havens Jump On Doubts Trump Tax Cuts Will Pass

Global stocks tumbled amid growing doubts President Trump will be able to deliver on a promise of tax cuts that has powered stocks markets to record highs pushed shares lower on Wednesday and drove investors to seek safety in government debt, gold and the yen. As DB put it: "Warning! US equities can occasionally go down as well as up a lot."

Global Stocks Drop, Futures Flat; French Yields Slide As Political Jitters Subside

In a quiet night for markets, in which the top highlight was the Oscar's historic peddling of best picture "fake news" and where "millions" of Academy members seemingly voted illegally, European stocks were little changed after a selloff that pushed them to a two-week low, while the MSCI Asia index fells as Japan’s Topix dropped for third day. S&P futures were unchanged.

German 2Y Yield Plunges To Record -0.95%: Citi Explains Why It Will Keep Dropping

With the German Schatz plunging to a record -0.85%, Citi analysts write that the German 2Y yield will likely make new historic lows, no matter what happens in French politics, because the ECB needs to buy around EU80b 1-6y Germany by year-end, and as a result traders will keep frontrunning ECB purchases, pushing the Schatz well below -1.00%

Weekend Reading: Trump-eting Dow 20,000

We can only surmise how this eventually turns out. But whether it is extremely suppressed volatility, extreme long positions in small-cap stocks or historical short positions in bonds, the “rubber band” is stretched very tightly. Of course, while “Trump-xuberance” currently reigns, there seems to be nothing to worry about. But then again, maybe that is exactly what we should be worrying about.

What Wall Street Expects From Today's Payrolls Reports

With all eyes likely on wage growth indications in the subtext of tomorrow's payrolls report (following The Fed Minutes' comments on full employment), Goldman Sachs is forecasting a better-than-expected 0.3% rebound in average hourly earnings (helped by more favorable calendar effects) and a better-than-expected 180k payrolls print (albeit with a small rise in the unemployment rate). However, they are careful to note that any downside can be blamed on "a considerable drop in temperatures."

European Stocks Soar, US Futures, Euro Jump After Failed Italian Referendum

Another miraculous overnight recovery has eliminated all the bearish aftertaste from the failed Italian referendum. As Guillermo Sampere of MPPM EK put it: "After Brexit, it took three days for markets to shake it off, with Trump it took three hours, with Italy it took three minutes.The fast money, who expected markets to fall further with this outcome, are now covering their positions."