Flight to Safety
Instead of allocating capital to expensive tail risk bets on direct asset class collapse (in equities, credit, and commodities), it appears, just as we detailed previously, the 'smartest money in the room' is "betting" indirectly on a stock market crash through eurodollar options.
Who said it? - "If it were positive to take interest rates into negative territory I would be voting for that."
Between Japan and Europe, over 20% of the world’s GDP is being managed by a Central Bank with NIRP.
At 1245ET, someone decided that the shorts had done enough damage and investors suddenly rushed "flight to safety"-like for the GPROs, TWTRs, FITs, and Biotechs of the world. This unleashed a massive short-squeeze among the "most shorted" stocks...
- Islamic State launches militant assault on Indonesia's capital (Reuters)
- Three winners emerge in $1.6 billion Powerball jackpot (Reuters)
- European Stocks Tumble, Credit Markets Weaken on Growth Concern (BBG)
- Stocks and commodity currencies floored by new oil plunge (Reuters)
- China Bear Market Looms as PBOC Fails to Stop Flight to Safety (BBG)
- Anxious phone calls, tense moments before Iran's Supreme Leader okayed U.S. sailors' release (Reuters)
Happy New Year: Global Stocks Crash After China Is Halted Limit Down In Worst Start To Year In HistorySubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 06:46 -0500
It all started off relatively well: oil and US equity futures were buoyant on hopes Iran and Saudi Arabia would break out in a bloody conflict any minute boosting the net worth of shareholders of the military industrial complex, and then, out of nowhere, like a depressed China in a bull shop, the "mainland" crashed the party and it all well south very, very quickly...
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) have created a very dangerous situation. And it is one that few if any investors are assessing.
The lack of fear in risky assets is another way of saying that risk premia have been low, or as we also like to put it, that complacency has been high. Not fully appreciative of this inherent risk, it seems many investors have refrained from rebalancing their portfolios, and bought the dips instead. We believe the Fed’s efforts to engineer an exit from its ultra-low monetary policy should get risk premia to rise once again, that if fear should come back to the market, volatility should rise, creating headwinds to ‘risky’ assets, including equities. That said, this isn’t an overnight process, as the ‘buy the dip’ mentality has taken years to be established. Conversely, it may take months, if not years, for investors to shift focus to capital preservation, i.e. to sell into rallies instead.
It had been a relatively quiet session overnight when as reported previously, the geopolitical situation in the middle east changed dramatically in a moment, when NATO-member country Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet allegedly over Turkish territory even though the plane crashed in Syria, and whose pilots may have been captured by local rebel forces. The news promptly slammed Turkish assets and FX, sending the Lira tumbling, pushing lower European stocks and US equity futures while sending 2 Year German Bunds to record negative yields.
Stocks Jump On Hope For More Central Bank Intervention After Japan's Quintuple Recession, Syrian StrikesSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/16/2015 07:03 -0500
As so often happens in these upside down days, was the best thing that could happen to the market, because another economic slowdown means the BOJ, even without sellers of JGBs, will have no choice but to expand its "stimulus" program (the same one that led Japan to its current predicament of course) and buy up if not government bonds, then corporate bonds, more ETFs (of which it already own 50%) and ultimately stocks. Because there is nothing better for the richest asset owners than total economic collapse.
As futures markets reopen, a flight to safety bid is evident with gold ($1090) and bonds bid as US equity futures extend Friday's losses (erasing half of the October surge gains). The Dollar is modestly bid against the euro (EURUSD 1.06 handle looms) and oil is holding slightly in the green (war premium)...
"There’s a lack of faith in monetary policy -- you’ve thrown the kitchen sink at it, you’ve cut rates to zero, you’re printing money -- and still inflation is lower. I think this is a dangerous situation if people perceive that it has the responsibility and it doesn’t have the tools."
As WaPo reports, "Hillary Clinton is proposing a $250 monthly cap on the amount patients with chronic and serious medical problems would have to pay out of pocket for prescription drugs as a way to reduce the effect of skyrocketing drug prices on consumers." "Nobody in America should have to choose between buying the medicine they need and paying rent," Clinton says.
Futures Plunge On Renewed Growth, Central Bank Fears; Volkswagen Shares Crash As Default Risk SurgesSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/22/2015 05:49 -0500
While Asian trading overnight started off on the right foot, chasing US momentum higher, things rapidly shifted once Europe opened as attention moved back to global growth fears, global central banks losing credibility, as well as miners and the ongoing Volkswagen fiasco.
So who is the most powerful woman in the world now?