• Marc To Market
    08/29/2015 - 10:18
    Dollar recovered from the exaggerated panic at the start of last week.  Outlook is still constructive.  Here is an overview of the technical condition of currencies, bonds, oil , and S&...

Ford

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What Happens When A Company, Or An Economy, Can’t Squeeze Any More Juice Out Of The Lemon





The more we think about it, the less the classical division between microeconomics (which studies the behavior of individuals and production entities) and macroeconomics (which deals with the performance of the economy as a whole and not its individual markets and components) makes any sense - certainly not in the 21st century. And in our view it is this disconnect between the two that is at the heart of the failure of Keynesian economics – which at best is incomplete and at worst is all just baloney.

 
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Guest Post: "Trump Terror" - The Donald & The Dollar





It is not enough to issue proclamations such as “it is time to get tough” or “It is time to make America great again”. These are the buzz words of a man that is reaching out to tap the rich vein of popular appeal. Perhaps that is what all politicians strive to do, especially when the field of candidates is rather crowded. However, what is clear is that a well-crafted economic strategy is not present, nor are staffers that would have the temerity to disagree with Mr T.

 
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MS Boosts TSLA Price Target To $465, Days After Underwriting Stock Offering; Sees Tesla Bigger Than Ford And GM





Moments ago, Morgan Stanley did it again just as expected, only this time it at least followed protocol when it announced it is raising its price target on TSLA from $280 to a whopping $465, or just shy of $61 billion in implied market cap. Incidentally at this price TSLA would be the biggest US automaker, surpassing not only GM's $50bn in market capo, but also Ford's $60 billion.

 
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US Oil Rig Count Rises For 4th Consecutive Week - Highest Since April





While the total rig count remained unchanged at 884, Baker Hughes reported oil rigs rose 2 this week to 672 - its highest since April 2015.  This is the 6th rise in the last 7 weeks. There is little to no reaction in crude prices for now...

 
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Tesla Loses More Than $4,000 On Every Car Sold





With the usual two year delay, others such as Reuters, are starting to notice that under the Tesla hood there are nothing but cockroaches. And now that the growth "story" has taken a back seat following the latest guidance cut in deliveries, fears that the company will have to dilute shareholders to keep the "story" afloat, are rapidly emerging. Case in point, Reuters calculation of a fact that was known to most observers but certainly not to retail enthusiasts who "bought the stock just because others bought the stock", i.e., that Tesla loses about $4000 on ever car it makes.

 
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The Damage Is Done... Something Will Have To Give





It wasn’t until the Americans were free to issue unlimited amounts of ‘dollars’ that these claims lost their soundness in a rambunctious belief in the never-ending global supremacy of US manufacturing. Now the damage is done. The gross misallocations that have plagued the world economy for well over four decades cannot be corrected without a cataclysmic event that will dramatically change living standards as the US realign their manufacturing and service sectors. But it cannot continue indefinitely either. Something will have to give.

 
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Another Theater Shooting: Active Shooter Reported In Nashville Cinema, Suspect Dead - Live Feed





Just two days after a jury agreed that Colorado theater shooter James Holmes could still face the death penalty for the tragic July 2012 mass shooting which killed 12 and injured 70, and a month after another shooter killed two and injured 8 before killing himself, moments ago WSMV reported that another active shooter situation had emerged in Nashville with the Nashville Fire Department confirming that shots were being fired at the Carmike 8 Cinemas on Bell Road at 1:55 p.m.

 
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Frontrunning: July 29





  • Fed expected to push ahead with rate hike plan (Reuters)
  • Upbeat earnings lift European stocks ahead of Fed (Reuters)
  • Chevron to Cut 1,500 Jobs (Rigzone)
  • Can Windows 10 Revive PC Sales? (WSJ)
  • U.S. Junk-Bond Buyers Left in Dark as Private Deals Become Norm (BBG)
  • Jeb Bush Drawing Big Bucks From GOP Establishment (WSJ)
  • Myriad of Greek Risks Means Money Managers in No Hurry to Return (BBG)
  • Gas production at Gazprom set to hit post-Soviet low (FT)
 
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Violent Government Buying Spree Sends Chinese Stocks Soaring At Close Of Trading; Yellen On Deck





On a day when market participants will care about only one thing - how hawkish (or dovish) the FOMC sounds at 2:00 pm (no Yellen press conference today) - Chinese stocks provided the usual dramatic sideshow and traded unchanged or modestly negative for most of the day despite the latest $100 billion injection, the close of trading on Wednesday was a mirror image of what happened in the last hour on Monday, as various Chinese "plunge-protection" mechanism went into a furious buying frenzy and government-backed funds rushed to buy anything that trades in the last 60 minutes of trading in what may be the most glaring example of banging the close yet.

 
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The True Minimum Wage Is $0 Per Hour





The minimum wage is not what is commonly referred, as is being proven again as parts of the US experiment directly with this boundary. In New York, fast food workers have been given a $15 per hour minimum wage which is being celebrated by the same fast food workers who will bear the brunt of the experimentation. Some of them will be happy with the results, but there will be clear losers – the full wrath of redistribution is usually unseen which is why it persists.

 
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Has The E&P Industry Lost Touch With Reality?





The U.S. E&P industry is really good at spending other people’s money to increase production. It doesn’t matter if there is a market for the oil and gas. As long as the capital keeps flowing, they will do what they do best. Don’t be distracted by the noisy chatter about savings through efficiency or re-fracking. Just look at the income statements and balance sheets from first quarter and it’s pretty clear that most companies are hemorrhaging cash at these prices. The U.S. rig count increased by 19 this week as oil prices dropped below $48 per barrel – the latest sign that the E&P industry is out of touch with reality.

 
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Futures Soar On Hope Central Planners Are Back In Control, China Rollercoaster Ends In The Red





For the first half an hour after China opened, things looked bleak: after opening down 5%, the Shanghai Composite staged a quick relief rally, then tumbled again. And then, just around 10pm Eastern, we saw a coordinated central bank intervention stepping in to give the flailing PBOC a helping hand, driven by the BOJ but also involving NY Fed members, that sent the USDJPY soaring which in turn dragged ES and most risk assets up with it. And while Shanghai did end up closing down -1.7%, with Shenzhen 2.2% lower at the close, the final outcome was far better than what could have been, with the result being that S&P futures have gone back to doing their thing, and have wiped out all of yesterday's losses in the levitating, zero volume, overnight session which has long become a favorite setting for central banks buying E-Minis.

 
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American Automakers High Exposure In China Is Not Good; Here's Why





The Chinese stock market crash has hit the world’s largest auto-market hard. For now, China is a dream turned sour for the Michigan-based Ford and General Motors and Germany’s Volkswagen. The risks are enormous and will become greater with time.

 
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Obama Nominates FX Expert To Fed Board Amid Strong Dollar Worries





If the Fed is concerned that a rate hike cycle might exacerbate the supposed drag on the economy exerted by the strengthening dollar and that tightening when the rest of the world is immersed in competitive devaluation could create FX headwinds for US exports, then why not nominate a currency strategist to the Fed board to weigh in on the subject? Well, as it turns out, that’s precisely what the Obama administration did on Monday.

 
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