Ford

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Frontrunning: August 20





  • Ferguson at Turning Point After Night of Relative Calm (BBG)
  • Gaza war rages on, Hamas says Israel tried to kill its military chief (Reuters)
  • Surge in Putin Patriotism Masks Pain of Sanctions (BBG)
  • Bank of England splits over rate hike for first time in 3 years (Reuters)
  • Putin Meeting Leaves Kiev With Tough Choices (WSJ)
  • European Gas Reverses Biggest Drop Since 2009 on Ukraine (BBG)
  • "Isolation"  Mongolia Seeks Economic Lifeline With Pivot to China, Russia (BBG)
  • Uber Picks David Plouffe to Wage Regulatory Fight (NYT)
  • China Levies Record Antitrust Fine on Japanese Firms (BBG)
 
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This Is Your Recovery, And This Is Your Recovery Without Drugs





The arrogance, hubris and contempt for morality displayed by the ruling class is breathtaking to behold. They think they are untouchable and impervious to norms followed by the rest of society. They may have won the opening battle, but will lose the war. Discontent among the masses grows by the day. The critical thinking citizens are growing restless and angry. They are beginning to grasp the true enemy. The system has been captured by a few malevolent men. When the stock, bond and housing bubbles all implode simultaneously, all hell will break loose in this country. It will make Ferguson, Missouri look like a walk in the park.

 
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Frontrunning: August 14





  • Police fire tear gas, stun grenades at Missouri protesters (Reuters)
  • Putin’s Pipeline Bypassing Ukraine at Risk Amid Conflict (BBG)
  • Russia's Largest Oil Company Seeks $42 billion to Weather Sanctions (WSJ)
  • Shells hit central Donetsk, Russian aid convoy heads towards border (Reuters)
  • U.S. Tightens Sanctions, Putting More Russian Companies at Risk (BBG)
  • How to Blindly Score 43% Profit Overnight in China Stocks (BBG)
  • Tears guaranteed: San Diego Pension Dials Up the Risk to Combat a Shortfall (WSJ)
  • Euro Recovery Halts as Germany Shrinks, France Stagnates (BBG)
  • Billionaire Found in Middle of Bribery Case Avoids U.S. Probe (BBG)
  • Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama 'Hug It Out' on Martha's Vineyard (WSJ)
 
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Wall Street's Shale 'Fraud' Exposed





U.S. energy independence, we're told, is at our fingertips thanks to the so-called “shale revolution”. Offsetting declines in conventional oil and gas production, shale gas and tight oil (shale oil) are being heralded as the means by which the U.S. will become energy independent – a net exporter of natural gas and once again the world’s largest oil producing nation. But two new reports by Post Carbon Institute and Energy Policy Forum show that the hype simply doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

 
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Frontrunning: August 12





  • Gunshots, tear gas in riots over shooting of black Missouri teen (Reuters)
  • Russia sends big aid convoy to Ukraine, West sounds warnings (Reuters)
  • Maliki Bid to Block Successor Escalates Crisis in Iraq (BBG)
  • Poor German data pushes euro toward 9-month lows against dollar (Reuters)
  • Derivatives Reincarnate Boosting Debt Wagers in New Era  (BBG)
  • Israel Says No Gaza Talks Progress as Hamas Warns on Truce (BBG)
  • Traders brace for research crackdown as easy money dries up (Reuters)
  • U.S. Bank Profits Near Record Levels (WSJ)
  • Unproven Ebola Drugs Are Ethical to Use in Outbreak: WHO (BBG)
  • Caesars’ CEO Loveman Says No Qualified Bidders for Revel (BBG)
 
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German Handelsblatt Releases Stunning Anti-West Op-Ed, Asks If "West Rabble-Rousers Are On The Payroll Of The KGB"





Up until this point Angela Merkel, and German media in general, had been staunchly on the side of the west when it comes to dealing with Russia, Putin and realpolitik in broader terms. That changed dramatically today when Gabor Steingart, the chief editor of Handelsblatt, Germany's leading economic newspaper, came out with a stunning op-ed, in German, English and Russian, titled simply that "The West on the wrong path" in which the editor comes out very vocally against the autopilot mode German media has been on for the past several months and calls for an end to a strategy of sanctions and Russian confrontation that ultimately "harms German interests" and is a dead end.

 
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The Rise Of The Petroyuan And The Slow Erosion Of Dollar Hegemony





For seventy years, one of the critical foundations of American power has been the dollar’s standing as the world’s most important currency. For the last forty years, a pillar of dollar primacy has been the greenback’s dominant role in international energy markets. Today, China is leveraging its rise as an economic power - and as the most important incremental market for hydrocarbon exporters in the Persian Gulf and the former Soviet Union - to circumscribe dollar dominance in global energy, with potentially profound ramifications for America’s strategic position.

 
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Frontrunning: August 4





  • New War Risk on Russia Fringes Amid Armenia-Azeri Clashes (BBG)
  • Palestinians accuse Israel of breaking seven-hour Gaza truce (Reuters)
  • Argentine Default Sours Outlook for Peso as Talks Ordered (BBG)
  • Espírito Santo Saga Entangles Swiss Company (WSJ)
  • Booming African Lion Economies Gear Up to Emulate Asians (BBG)
  • CME Profit Falls as Trading Volume Declines (WSJ)
  • Why Recalled Cars Stay on the Road (WSJ)
  • London Renters Win in Billionaire Backyard as Prices Soar (BBG)
  • Junk-Debt Liquidity Concerns Bring Sales (WSJ)
  • Rescuers race to find survivors after 400 die in China quake (AFP)
 
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The West's Reckless Rush Towards War With Russia





For reasons that have no rational explanations at this time, the US and Europe have embarked on a concerted program to demonize Putin, ostracize Russia, and bring the world as close to a major conflict as it's been since the Cold War, a time hardly memorable to many in the current crop of our elected officials. A dangerous dynamic is brewing between the West and Russia/Putin. We are seeing a rush to war very similar to the one that led up to Saddam's ouster, but this time, we have much less justification (hard to believe) and the opponent is tremendously more capable. There is little sense in the course the West is currently pursuing, little to gain, and much to lose. The main conclusion here is that not only is the US poking the bear, but it is doing so with increasing frequency and upping the ante dangerously with each step.

 
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Frontrunning: July 29





  • EU finalises Russian sanctions as BP warns of impact on business (FT)
  • Geopolitical Risk Rises for Global Investors (BBG)
  • Jaded Argentines brace for looming debt default (Reuters)
  • In Argentina, Mix of Money and Politics Stirs Intrigue Around Kirchner (WSJ)
  • Mom ‘Trusting God’ for Ebola-Infected U.S. Doctor’s Life (BBG)
  • Thanks NSA: Tech Companies Reel as NSA's Spying Tarnishes Reputations (BBG)
  • Goldman unit eyes foray into China amid metals financing scandal (Reuters)
  • Cash out time: London’s Gherkin Tower Offered for Sale by Its Lenders (BBG)
  • Apenomics strikes again: McDonald’s Japan axes profit guidance amid food safety scandal (FT)
  • Do you see what happens Larry when you are the only USDJPY bid? Nomura Profit Falls More Than Estimated on Broking Slump (BBG)
 
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On Washington's Ukrainian Fiasco: "Who Is The Real Problem Here?"





In just 800 words Pat Buchanan exposes the sheer juvenile delinquency embodied in Washington’s current Ukrainian fiasco.
What motivates Putin seems simple and understandable. He wants the respect due a world power. He sees himself as protector of the Russians left behind in his “near abroad.” He relishes playing Big Power politics. History is full of such men. But what motivates those on our side who seek every opportunity to restart the Cold War? Is it not a desperate desire to appear once again Churchillian, once again heroic, once again relevant, as they saw themselves in the Cold War that ended so long ago? Who is the real problem here?

 

 
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Frontrunning: July 25





  • Argentine holdout NML says government "choosing" to default (Reuters)
  • Crunch time for Gaza truce talks as death toll passes 800 (Reuters)
  • Don’t Tell Anybody About This Story on HFT Power Jump Trading (BBG)
  • U.S. Accuses Russia of Shelling Eastern Ukraine (BBG)
  • France’s Wheat Exports in Question as Rain Spoils Quality (BBG)
  • Tapering in action: Lower printer sales hurt Xerox's revenue (Reuters)
  • No liquidity? No Problem, there's an ETF for that: Bond ETFs Swelling in Europe as Trading Debt Gets Tougher (BBG)
  • Herbalife hires ex-Biden chief to fend off regulators (NYPost)
  • GM recalls far from calamity for some dealers who find new customers, business (Reuters)
  • Bad weather likely cause of fatal Air Algerie crash: French officials (Reuters)
 
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Futures Dragged Down By Visa, Amazon Despite USDJPY Levitation





Following yesterday's disappointing results by Visa, which is the largest DJIA component accounting for 8% of the index and which dropped nearly 3%, while AMZN's 10% tumble has weighed heavily on NASDAQ futures, it has been up to the USDJPY to push US equity futures from dropping further, which it has done admirably so far with the tried and true levitation pump taking place just as Europe opened. One thing to keep in mind: yesterday the CME quietly hiked ES and NQ margins by 6% and 11% respectively. A modest warning shot across the bow of what may be coming down the line?

 
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Frontrunning: July 24





  • EU to weigh extensive sanctions on Russia (FT)
  • U.S. lifts flight ban to Israel (Reuters)
  • Russia says will cooperate with MH17 probe led by Netherlands (Reuters)
  • Norway faces ‘concrete and credible’ terrorist threat (FT)
  • Don’t Tell Anybody About This Story on HFT Power Jump Trading (BBG)
  • But... but... PMI: Unilever Sales Growth Misses Estimates on Asian Slowdown (BBG)
  • World’s Biggest Wealth Fund Reviews $8 Billion Russian Stake (BBG)
  • Qualcomm latest US tech company to reverse in China (FT)
  • Hamptons Home Sales Rise as Buyers Find More Inventory (BBG)
 
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Overnight Manufacturing PMI Euphoria Boosts Futures To Fresh Record Highs





Ever since going public, it appears that Markit's giddyness about life has spilled over into its manufacturing surveys: after a surge in recent Markit mfg exuberance in recent months in the US, it was first China's turn overnight to hit an 18 month high, slamming expectations and fixing the bitter taste in the mouth left by another month of atrocious Japan trade data (where even Goldman has thrown in the towel on Abenomics now) following which the euphoria spilled over to Europe just as the triple-dip recession warnings had started to grow ever louder and most economists have been making a strong case for ECB QE. Instead, German July mfg PMI printed at 52.9, above the 52.0 in June and above the 51.9 expected while the Composite blasted higher to 55.9, from 54.0, and above the 53.8 expected thanks to the strongest Service PMI in 37 months! End result: a blended Eurozone manufacturing PMI rising from 51.8 to 51.9, despite expectations of a modest decline while the Composite rose from 52.8 to 54.0, on expectations of an unchanged print. Curiously the soft survey data took place as Retail Sales declined both in Italy (-0.7%, Exp. +0.2%), and the UK (-0.1%, Exp. 0.3%), which incidentally was blamed on "hot weather." Perhaps Markit, now that it has IPOed successfully, can step off the gas or at least lobby to have surveys become part of GDP.

 
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