Ford

North American crude oil has been in the news on several fronts this week, including some rapid price moves and an unexpected intervention by President Obama. Despite the publication of a new report projecting a much more rapid rate of tight oil supply growth than is generally expected and the entire Buffet-Railroad-Traffic-Pipeline meme relying on increasingly exponential dreams of the Bakken et al. saving us from our excess-energy-consuming selves, Barclays questions just how realistic these forecasts are, noting "it is perhaps wise to exercise a degree of caution over longer-term shale oil forecasts... partly because of the steepness of decline rates for shale oil wells, a lot of the very big productivity gains have already been made, and finally, skepticism around some of the more ambitious projections of US shale output due to the existence of numerous logistical barriers."

What are we supposed to do with all the “Dow 15,000” hats now? Keep them handy for another trip on the “Index Round Numbers Express” or just put them up on eBay in the “curios and collectibles” section?  ConvergEx's Nick Colas suggests one way to think about the question is to deconstruct the Dow into its 30 components and see which stocks got us to these still-respectable YTD levels in the first place.  For example, Colas notes that just seven stocks – MMM, BA, JNJ, AXP, DIS, HD, and HPQ – make up more than half the gains for the Dow in 2013.  Most of these names have a distinctly cyclical flavor, of course. And while the Dow has its share of “Defensive” names, it pays to remember that the top 10 companies by weighting take up 54% of the Average.  And they need a decent economy to grow earnings...

When the S&P, always so conveniently ahead of the curve, yesterday revised its forecast for Europe from growth in the second half of 2013 to 2014 one couldn't help but golf clap, as well as wonder if they finally started looking at the fundamental depressionary reality on the ground instead of the rating agency's infamous "models." A depressionary reality confirmed by the latest car sales number for May which just hit a fresh 20 year low.

• Obama Says Bernanke Fed Term Lasting ‘Longer Than He Wanted’ (Bloomberg)
• Merkel Critical Of Japan's Credit Policy In Meeting With Abe (Nikkei)
• China Wrestles With Banks' Pleas for Cash (WSJ)
• Biggest protests in 20 years sweep Brazil (Brazil)
• Pena Nieto Confident 75-Year Pemex Oil Monopoly to End This Year (Bloomberg)
• G8 leaders seek common ground on tax (FT)
• Putin faces isolation over Syria as G8 ratchets up pressure (Reuters)
• Former Trader Is Charged in U.K. Libor Probe (WSJ) - yup: it was all one 33 year old trader's fault
• Draghi Says ECB Has ‘Open Mind’ on Non-Standard Measures (BBG)
• Loeb Raises His Sony Stake, Drive for Entertainment IPO (WSJ)

• As Goldman's money-printing tentacle Carney arrives, everyone else leaves: Tucker to Leave BOE (WSJ)
• So much for pent up demand: Refinancings Plunge as Bond Yields Rise (WSJ)
• Singapore Censures 20 Banks for Attempts to Rig Benchmark Rates (BBG)
• Behind the Big Profits: A Research Tax Break (WSJ)
• While working for spies, Snowden was secretly prolific online (Reuters)
• Turkey to Await Ruling on Park as Erdogan Meets Protesters (BBG)
• Iran votes for new president, Khamenei slams U.S. doubts (Reuters)
• NSA revelations, modified wheat cast a pall on U.S. trade talks with Europe (WaPo)
• Euro zone inflation subdued as employment keeps falling (Reuters)

We showed yesterday the truly dreadful state of this economic recovery had one odd bright (green) spot, US auto production (and sales). While cash-for-clunkers started it, and easy money from the Fed expanded it (via credit for an ever-growing cohort of subprime borrowers), the car companies have now reached back into the bag of old tricks that blew them up before - incentives in May jumped to 8% of market value - or almost $2,500 per vehicle - the highest in over 2 years. If things are going so well in this 'recovery' why are the car makers forced to squeeze margin for volume... The problem, as BusinessWeek reports, is that increasingly rich incentives aren't moving the needle much on sales.

• Pimco Sees 60% Chance of Global Recession in Five Years (BBG)
• Global Tumult Grips Markets (WSJ)
• NSA Secrecy Prompts a Pushback (WSJ)
• ANA Scraps 787 Dreamliner Flight as Engine Fails to Start (BBG) - one of these days, though, it shall fly
• Kuroda’s April-Was-Enough Message Faces Markets Wanting More (BBG)
• S&P warns top US banks are still ‘too big to fail’ (FT)
• Democracy for $500 per plate (Reuters)
• Iran, the United States and 'the cup of poison' (Reuters)
• Japan grapples with lack of entrepreneurs (FT)
• Greece First Developed Market Cut to Emerging at MSCI (BBG)
• Asia's ticking time bonds; time to cut and run? (Reuters)
• Sony Outduels Microsoft in First PS4-Xbox One Skirmish (BBG)

• Global Stocks Tumble as Treasuries Rally, Yen Strengthens (BBG)
• China Export Gains Seen Halved With Fake-Data Crackdown (BBG) - so a crash in the GDP to follow?
• FBI and Microsoft take down botnet group  (FT)
• Quant hedge funds hit by bonds sell-off  (FT)
• Russia's Syria diplomacy, a game of smoke and mirrors (Reuters)
• Obama Confidantes Get Key Security Jobs (WSJ)
• BMW to Mercedes Skip Summer Breaks to Keep Plants Rolling even as European auto demand slides to a 20-year low (BBG) - thank you cheap credit
• Paris threat to block EU-US trade talks  (FT)

That concept of the Chinese Dream "came just in time" and will "benefit the world"

• BIS lays out "simple" plan for how to handle bank failures (Reuters) - Are we still holding our breath on Basel III?
• Deficit Deal Even Less Likely - Improving U.S. Fiscal Health Eases Pressure for a 'Grand Bargain' Amid Gridlock (WSJ)
• IRS Faulted on Conference Spending (WSJ)
• Deadly MERS-CoV virus spreads to Italy (CNN)
• Turkish PM Erdogan calls for calm after days of protests (Reuters)
• Financial system ‘waiting for next crisis’ (FT)
• Russia to send nuclear submarines to southern seas (Reuters)
• China Nuclear Stockpile Grows as India Matches Pakistan Rise (BBG)

• Record unemployment, low inflation underline Europe's pain (Reuters)
• The ponzi gets bigger and bigger: Spanish banks up sovereign bond holdings by more than 10% (FT)
• California Lawmakers Turn Down Moratorium on Fracking (BBG)
• China’s Growing Ranks of Elderly Beset by Depression, Study Says (BBG)
• Tokyo Prepares for a Once-in-200-Year Flood to Top Sandy (BBG)
• Morgan Stanley Cutting Correlation Unit Added $50 Billion (BBG)
• IMF warns over yen weakness (FT)
• Rising radioactive spills leave Fukushima fishermen floundering (Reuters)
• India records slowest growth in a decade (FT)

• Japan’s Stocks Correction Raises Stakes for Abe’s Growth Plan (BBG)
• China Failure to Grow With $1 Trillion Is Warning to Li (BBG)
• Blankfein Leads Bank CEO Pay With $26 Million Deemed Overpaid (BBG)
• IMF says ‘no evidence yet’ of Abenomics hurting other economies (FT)
• Europe Seeks CFTC Delay in Imposing Swaps Rules on Banks (BBG)
• Fed's Rosengren: 'Modest' QE3 cut may make sense in a few months (Reuters)
• Who’s who of Obama lobbyists pushes Keystone pipeline (FT)
• China to Study Joining U.S.-Led Trade Accord After Japan Added (BBG)

• South China Sea tension mounts near Filipino shipwreck (Reuters)
• OECD cuts economic forecasts as eurozone drags on growth (FT)
• Switzerland frees banks to settle U.S. tax evasion cases (Reuters)
• U.S. Says Firm Laundered Billions (WSJ)... no, it's not HSBC, also: Free Corzine!
• Ardent conservative Bachmann to not seek re-election to Congress (Reuters)
• Russia faults U.S. over 'odious' Syria rights resolution (Reuters)

• ‘Cov-lite’ loans soar in dash for yield (FT)
• Cambodian police clash with thousands of garment workers, 23 hurt (Reuters)
• Obama Accepting Sequestration as Deficit Shrinks (BBG)
• Having done nothing to restore confidence in a fragmented market, the SEC turns back to main street fraud (WSJ)
• Europe's austerity-to-growth shift largely semantic (Reuters)
• Germany thwarts EU in China solar fight (FT)
• In EU-China dispute, Beijing warns of trade  (FT)
• U.S. Oil Boom Divides OPEC (WSJ)
• Record Cash Sent to Balanced Funds (BBG)
• Hilsenrath: Fed Wrestles With Market Expectations About Pace of QE (WSJ)
• Worse-Than-Cyprus Debt Load Means Caribbean Defaults to Moody’s (BBG)
• States Raise College Budgets After Years of Deep Cuts (WSJ)
• U.K. Banks Cut 189,000 With Employment at Nine-Year Low (BBG)

• Global shares sink, following 7.3 percent drop in Japan's Nikkei (Reuters)
• When all fails, pull a Kevin Bacon: Japan Economy Chief Warns Against Panic Over Stock Sell-Off (BBG)
• White House Feeds IRS Frenzy by Revising Accounts (BBG)
• In any scandal, lying to Congress is tough to prove (Reuters)
• Debt limit resets at higher level, budget impasse grinds on (Reuters)
• China factory data to test political calculations (FT)
• European Leaders Saying No to Austerity (BBG)
• And yet, nobody wants in anymore: Iceland’s new coalition government suspends EU accession talks (FT)
• Oil Manipulation Inquiry Shows EU’s Hammer After Libor (BBG)
• The Fed Squeezes the Shadow-Banking System (WSJ)
• Diamond Said to Weigh Backing Barclays Alumni in Venture (BBG)
• Spain’s Private Jets Disappearing as Tycoons Cut Flights (BBG)