Ford

Continuing to look back at what once was. Following Part 1's emergence from the civil war and the age of enlightenment, In Part 2 of the 4 part History Channel series, America continues to recover from the Civil War, undertaking the largest building phase of the country s history. While much of the growth is driven by railroads and oil, it's built using steel. From the Civil War to the Great Depression and World War I, for better or worse; for richer or poorer, in ethical and societal sickness or health; these five men - John D. Rockefeller, Cornelius Vanderbilt, Andrew Carnegie, Henry Ford and J.P. Morgan - led the way.

• Spain’s Deficit Widened to 10.2% on Bank-Rescue Cost (BBG) - or as Rajoy would say, when one excludes all negatives, it was a surplus
• Monti Austerity Pushes Italians Toward Parliament Upheaval (BBG)
• Russia accuses U.S. of double standards over Syria (Reuters)
• Euro Area to Shrink in 2013 as Unemployment Rises (BBG)
• UK, China central banks to discuss currency swap line (Reuters)
• Italy Court Rejects Challenge to Bailout of Monte Paschi (BBG)
• Japan's Abe to showcase alliance, get Obama to back Abenomics (Reuters)
• Russia’s missing billions revealed (FT)
• China Home-Price Gains May Presage Policy Tightening (BBG)
• Fed unlikely to curtail stimulus despite rising doubts (Reuters)
• Banks face fines up to 30 per cent of revenues (FT) - just as soon as Basel III is passed (i.e., never)
• J.C. Penney Can Raise Billions Under Revised Credit Line (BBG)
• Cost of Dropping Citizenship Keeps U.S. Earners From Exit (BBG)

It is perhaps time to look back at what once was. In Part 1 of the 4 part History Channel series, a new war begins as out of the turmoil of the Civil War, America enters an age of enlightenment that will change the landscape of the country forever. The growth is driven by five insightful men who will change the world forever. John D. Rockefeller, Cornelius Vanderbilt, Andrew Carnegie, Henry Ford and J.P. Morgan rose from obscurity and in the process built modern America. Their names hang on street signs, are etched into buildings and are a part of the fabric of history. These men created the American Dream and were the engine of capitalism as they transformed everything they touched in building the oil, rail, steel, shipping, automobile and finance industries. Their paths crossed repeatedly as they elected presidents, set economic policies and influenced major events of the 50 most formative years this country has ever known. From the Civil War to the Great Depression and World War I, for better or worse, they led the way.

European car registrations had their worst January on record - an 8.7% year-over-year decline - as consumers hit by austerity are likely to continue to limit spending on big-ticket items. The Association of European Automakers notes the 918,280 new cars ('tagging' aside) is the slowest January since 1990 and makes the 16th consecutive month of year-over-year drops, as perhaps past car-scrapping schemes may also have hampered sales by encouraging buyers to bring forward planned purchases. During the Great Recession, European auto sales only fell 12 consecutive months. The weakness is broad based with Ford (a record 26% plunge), Peugeot Citron (down 16%) and Toyota (down 16%) as it seems the hopes and dreams of a troughing in the European economy has absolutely not shown up in the car industry. As Reuters reports, citing a CS analyst, "Hopes of an earnings and cash recovery in the second half are misplaced."

• Here comes the replay of 2011 as China starts the counter-reflation moves: China Central Bank Reverses Cash Pump (WSJ)
• Security group suspects Chinese military is behind hacking attacks (Reuters)
• Iceland Foreshadows Death of Currencies Lost in Crisis (BBG)
• China Allows More Firms to Sell Mutual Funds to Bolster Market (BBG)
• Uncertainty looms for Italians (FT)
• Forget the big comeback; Detroit focuses on what can be saved (Reuters)
• SAC’s Cohen May Face SEC Suit as Deposition Hurts Case (BBG)
• Hollande wrestles with austerity demands (FT)
• Obama Golf With Woods in Florida Risks Muddling Messsage (BBG)
• Simpson and Bowles to Offer Up Deficit (WSJ)
• Aso Says Japanese Government Not Planning Foreign Bond Buys (BBG) - ... until it changes its tune once more
• Abe to Decide on Bank of Japan Governor Nomination Next Week (BBG)

5% fewer words, slightly shorter than last year but just as hope-full. From a hike (and inflation-indexed) in the minimum wage to a 140x multiplier of genome sciences investment (now that is Keynesian awesomeness); from extending homeownership (and refinancing plans) even more to energy independence; from Apple, Ford, and CAT's US Manufacturing to Bridge-Building and infrastructure spending; and from Trans-Pacific and -Atlantic Trade to cyber-security; it's all gonna be great - because as President Obama reminded us at the start... "Our housing market is healing, our stock market is rebounding," and this won't add a dime to the deficit... oh and that Student loan bubble - no worries, there's a college scorecard so now you know where to get the biggest bang for your credit-based buck. Summing it all up: Guns 9 : 3 Freedom ; Jobs 31 : 17 Tax ; Congress 17 : 40 Work ; Recovery 2 : 0 Unicorns ; Spending 3 : 2 Cutting

Excess cash on corporate balance sheets has been a hot topic the better part of the last decade, but ConvergEx's Nick Colas believes it's about to become even more important to capital markets.  U.S. companies have, after all, regained all the profitability they collectively enjoyed prior to the Financial Crisis.  Moreover, they've accomplished that by rationalizing their business models to succeed in a period of distinctly sub-par growth.  Combine that with markets that will likely offer only average returns, and activist investing seems like a worthwhile approach to alpha generation.  Sometimes, however, it pays to look at the world through the eyes of the fox rather than the hounds. As the Einhorn-Cook battle commences, we graciously offer up a few kernels of advice for other companies who get the "Where’s my money at?" call from an activist. E.g. #1 – The country’s central bank doesn’t think we are really out of the crisis – why do you?

• Tunisian opposition politician shot dead, protests erupt (Reuters)
• China says extremely concerned after latest North Korea threats (Reuters)
• Postal Service to cut Saturday mail to trim costs (AP)
• Debt Rise Colors Budget Talks (WSJ)
• Obama proposes short-term budget fix, Republicans swiftly object (Reuters)
• S&P Analyst Joked of Bringing Down the House Before Crash (BBG)
• Dell’s Bigger Challenge Ahead in Turnaround After Buyout (BBG)
• Some of the Mark Carney Gloss Is Coming Off (WSJ)
• Japan Official Says BOJ Tools Sufficient as Shake-Up Looms (BBG)
• S&P Lawsuit Undermined by SEC Rules That Impede Competition (BBG)
• Heavy Clashes Erupt in Syrian Capital (WSJ)

Work in the mortgage market?  Never read about Kamala Harris or the  CA "Home Owner Bill of Rights?"  Read on....

Because humor is always the best and only cure to pervasive central planning that has made a mockery of traditional investing and capital allocation, and because nobody delivers unlimited sheer, unadulterated humor quite as well as one James J. Cramer when he is "recommending" stocks, here is the full text of Jim Cramer's "The Winners of the New World" speech delivered in February 2000. Because it really never is different this time.

• 'London Whale' Sounded an Alarm on Risky Bets (WSJ)
• Deadly Blast Strikes U.S. Embassy in Turkey (WSJ)
• Abe Shortens List for BOJ Chief as Japan Faces Monetary Overhaul (BBG)
• Endowment Returns Fail to Keep Pace with College Spending (BBG) - More student loans
• Mexico rescue workers search for survivors after Pemex blast kills 25 (Reuters)
• Lingering Bad Debts Stifle Europe Recovery (WSJ)
• Peregrine Founder Hit With 50 Years (WSJ) - there is hope Corzine will get pardoned yet
• Deutsche Bank to Limit Immediate Bonuses to 300,000 Euros
• France's Hollande to visit Mali Saturday (Reuters)
• France, Africa face tough Sahara phase of Mali war (Reuters)
• Barclays CEO refuses bonus (Barclays)
• Edward Koch, Brash New York Mayor During 1980s Boom, Dies at 88 (BBG)
• Samsung Doubles Tablet PC Market Share Amid Apple’s Lead (BBG)

• Boeing misses Q4 top line ($22.3 bn, Exp. $22.33 bn) beats EPS ($1.28, Exp. $1.18), guides lower: 2013 revenue $82-85 bn, Exp. 87.9 bn
• Hilsenrath discovers DV01: Fed Risks Losses From Bonds  (WSJ)
• Airlines had 787 battery issues before groundings (Reuters)
• Monte Paschi ignored warnings over risk, documents show (Reuters) as did Mario Draghi
• China averts local government defaults (FT)
• Economy Probably Slowed as U.S. Spending Gain Drained Stockpiles (Bloomberg)
• Bono Is No Match for Retail Slump Hitting Dublin’s Fifth Avenue (BBG)
• Catalonia requests €9bn from rescue fund (FT)
• US plans more skilled migrant visas (FT)
• Japan PM shrugs off global criticism over latest stimulus steps (Reuters)
• CIA nominee had detailed knowledge of "enhanced interrogation techniques" (Reuters)
• Cleanliness Meets Godliness as Russia Reeled Into Cyprus (BBG)
• Deutsche Bank Seen Missing Goldman-Led Gains on Cost Rise (BBG)

• CAT beats ex-Chinese fraud: $1.91, Exp. $1.70; Warns 2013 could be a "tough year"; sees 2013 EPS in $7.00-$9.00 range, Exp. $8.54, sees Q1 sales well below Q1, 2012
• Yi Warns on Currency Wars as Yuan Close to ‘Equilibrium’ (BBG)
• Monte Paschi seeks new investor as scandal deepens (Reuters)
• Assault Weapons Ban Lacks Democratic Votes to Pass Senate (BBG)
• Toyota Again World's Largest Auto Maker (WSJ)
• Curious why all those Geneva Libor manipulators moved to Singapore? Bank probes find manipulation in Singapore's offshore FX market  (Reuters)
• Japan eased safety standards ahead of Boeing 787 rollout (Reuters) - so like Fukushima?
• Goldman is about to be un charge: Osborne cools on changing inflation target (Telegraph)
• Abe Predicts Bump in Revenue as Japan Emerges From Recession (BBG) - actually, "hopes" is the correct verb here
• Toxic Smog in Beijing Fueling Auto Sales for GM, VW (BBG)
• Fed waits for job market to perk up (Reuters) ... any minute now that S&P to BLS trickle down will hit, promise
• BofA shifts derivatives to UK (FT)

• Fed Pushes Into ‘Uncharted Territory’ With Record Assets (BBG)
• Next up in the currency wars: Korea - Samsung Drops on $2.8 Billion Won Profit-Cut Prediction (BBG)
• China Warns ‘Hot Money’ Inflows Possible on Easing From Abroad (Bloomberg)
• BOJ Shirakawa affirms easy policy pledge but warns of costs (Reuters)
• Merkel Takes a Swipe at Japan Over Yen (WSJ)
• Wages in way of Abe’s war on deflation (FT)
• Italian PM under fire over bank crisis (FT)
• Senior officials urge calm over islands dispute (China Daily)
• Spain tries to peel back business rules (FT)
• Rifts Over Cyprus Bailout Feed Broader Fears (WSJ)
• Soros Says the Euro Is Here to Stay as Currency War Looms (BBG)

• Doubt Greets Bank of Japan's Easing Shift (WSJ)
• Japan hits back at currency critics (FT)
• Japan upgrades economic view for first time in eight months (Australian) - only to lower them in a few months again
• GOP critics get opportunity to grill Secretary Clinton on Benghazi (Hill)
• Global economy set for ‘slow recovery’ (FT)
• Obama to back short debt limit extension (FT)
• Unfinished Luxury Tower Is Stark Reminder of Las Vegas’s Economic Reversal (NYT)
• Draghi Says ‘Darkest Clouds’ Over Europe Have Subsided (BBG)
• High-Speed Dustup Hits a Clubby Corner (WSJ)
• U.S. Budget Discord Is Top Threat to Global Economy in Poll (BBG)
• Sir Mervyn King says abandoning inflation target would be 'irresponsible' (Telegraph)
• Spain Says It May Cover 13% of 2013 Funding in January (BBG)