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Event Risk in the Week Ahead





Straight forward discussion of the key events next week.   Weak on bluster.  Strong on analysis.   You've been warned.  

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 25





  • Apple CEO Cook Goes From Record Sales to IPhone Stumbles (BBG)
  • Deal With Saudis Paved Way for Syrian Airstrikes (WSJ)
  • Drone delivery: DHL 'parcelcopter' flies to German isle (Reuters)
  • Tory Burch Hires Ralph Lauren Veteran as Co-CEO (WSJ)
  • Apple releases iOS 8 workaround to fix dropped cell service (Reuters)
  • Ukraine Probes Ex-Minister Over $3 Billion Russian Bond (BBG)
  • Goldman Sachs-Led Group Near Deal to Buy Messaging Startup Perzo (WSJ)
  • U.K. Seeks to Criminalize Manipulation of 7 Benchmarks (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 24





  • A Month of Bombs Dropped in One Night of Strikes on Syria (BBG)
  • Air strikes in Syria hit Islamic State-held areas near Turkey (Reuters)
  • Pimco ETF Draws Probe by SEC (WSJ)
  • Shadowy al Qaeda cell, hit by U.S. in Syria, seen as 'imminent' threat (Reuters)
  • Yellen Warns on Market Calm Before ‘Considerable Time’ Up (BBG)
  • Dudley Says Fed Needs U.S. Economy to Run ‘A Little Hot' (BBG)
  • Websites Are Wary of Facebook Tracking Software (WSJ)
  • Just a joke now: Barclays Fined Twice in One Day for Compliance Failures (BBG)
  • Fired UPS worker kills two supervisors, self, in Alabama shooting (Reuters)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 23





  • U.S., backed by Arabs, launches first strikes on fighters in Syria (Reuters, BBG)
  • But not all all back: Turkey Bars Kurds From Entering Syria to Fight Islamic State (BBG)
  • Dollar Weakens on Airstrikes; Europe Stocks Drop (BBG)
  • Ready for Rate Riot? Emerging Markets Set to Follow Fed (BBG)
  • White House fence jumper had ammunition, machete in car, prosecutors say (WaPo)
  • El-Erian "would have done things differently" (Reuters)
  • Eurozone business growth slows in September, PMI survey finds (BBC)
  • Shrinking Bond Desks Taken by Journeymen as Masters Fade (BBG)
  • Manufacturing Rebound Relieves Growth Concerns in China (BBG)
  • Former Trader Quits Playboy Club to Open Own Restaurant (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

They Do Ring A Bell At The Top: Alibaba Proves Wall Street Is Off Its Rocker





So with regards to BABA’s $230 billion market cap at week’s end, you can say this: None dare call it price discovery! What it shows is that Wall Street is well and truly off it rocker. The Chinese swindlers behind BABA didn’t even have to tap their home market. These preposterously over-valued shares were sold overwhelmingly to Wall Street - to the gamblers, speculators and robo-traders that have occupied what was once a reasonably honest capital market. So why did Wall Street capitalize an opaque mass merchant operating in a precarious economy at 27X sales?  The answer is that Wall Street is a momentum driven casino that is now over-valuing everything that moves and all that stands still. That’s the ultimate evil of monetary central planning. Having destroyed honest price discovery in the financial markets, the Fed now “accommodates” the speculators one meeting at a time - in deathly fear of a hissy fit.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman Warns Tesla Will Need To Raise At Least Another $6 Billion





Following a plant tour to TSLA, Goldman is confident that the company will meet its 2014 production objectives. However, what keeps them more guarded is the aggressive timetable of the gigafactory as well as a potential escalation of capital needs given the planned capacity ramp, model and derivative expansion, service expansion as well as other undisclosed projects. Simply put, Goldman warns, at the low end of our three disruptive scenarios for TSLA, they see the need for an additional $6bn in capital - and 18% dilution to the current market cap around $33bn. With 3Q likely to be a noisy quarter and shares seemingly baking in flawless execution at present, Goldman remains sidelined for now with a $210 target.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 18





  • House votes to arm Syrian rebels (Reuters).... aka ISIS
  • Fed Plots Cautious Course on Rate Rises  (Hilsenrath)
  • Scots vote in independence referendum to seal the United Kingdom's fate (Reuters)
  • Yes or No, the Winner of the Referendum Is Brand Scotland (BBG)
  • Draghi Loan Plan Missing Estimates Hampers ECB Stimulus (BBG) - get with the spin, it simply means "Moar QE"
  • Obama Plans to Tightly Control Strikes on Syria (WSJ)
  • IMF warns of risks from 'excessive' financial market bets (Reuters)
  • Russia Praises Ukraine's Autonomy Law for Rebel Areas (WSJ)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 17





  • -0.07%: Germany Secures Record Low Funding Cost at Bond Auction (WSJ)
  • Pentagon Sees Possible Role for U.S. Ground Forces Against Islamic State Militants (WSJ)
  • China Joins ECB in Adding Stimulus as Fed Scales Back (BBG)
  • Stealthy or Normal? Analysts Diverge on PBOC’s Action (BBG)
  • Sony Forecasts Massive $2B Loss as Smartphones Lag (AP)
  • Islamic State campaign tests Obama's commitment to Mideast allies (Reuters)
  • Brent Crude Rebounds as Libya’s Sharara Oilfield Shut (BBG)
  • Market calm over Scottish vote at odds with disaster warnings (Reuters)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 16





  • Thank you market Chief Risk Officer Bernanke/Yellen: Calpers to Exit Hedge Funds, Divest $4 Billion Stake (BBG)
  • World stocks hit one-month low, caution ahead of Fed (Reuters)
  • U.S. Efforts to Build Coalition Against Islamic State in Iraq, Syria Are Hampered by Sectarian Divide (WSJ)
  • Time to throw away some more good money: Sears Borrows $400 Million From Lampert’s ESL Investments (BBG)
  • Wildfires rage in California drought, hundreds forced to flee (Reuters)
  • United Offers $100,000 Buyouts to Flight Attendants (BBG)
  • Biggest Banks Said to Overhaul FX Trading After Scandals (BBG)
  • You mean you have to pay? Administration threatens to cut off ObamaCare subsidies to 360,000 (The Hill)
  • RBS Said to Dismiss Most of Team Overseeing Central Europe Debt (BBG) they will be hired by the ECB
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 15





  • Snow is coming: OECD Cuts Economic Growth Forecasts (WSJ)
  • World waits for white smoke from U.S. Fed (Reuters) - Understandable error: they meant "green"
  • Scots Breakaway at 45% Odds as Economists Warn of Capital Flight (BBG)
  • Ukraine President Poroshenko Faces Backlash Over EU Trade Deal Delay (WSJ)
  • German Anti-Euro Party Advances in Merkel Homeland Voting (BBG)
  • Clinton Hints at 2016 Run as Super-PAC Packs Iowa Steak Fry (BBG)
  • Air France, Lufthansa Hit by Strikes in Fight for Future (BBG)
  • U.S. sees Middle East help fighting IS, Britain cautious after beheading (Reuters)
  • Ex-Billionaire Charged by Brazil With Financial Crimes (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Art Cashin: "Things Could Theoretically Turn Into What I Call A Lehman Moment"





Q. What are traders talking about at the present time here at the New York Stock Exchange?

Cashin: We are concerned about two questions. First, how will the Fed do in keeping money reasonably easy without causing inflation? Second, where do we stand with the current geopolitical challenges? For now, these challenges seem to be short term concerns. But should we begin to see a financial contagion and pressure building on banks in Europe, perhaps out of the Ukraine situation, things could theoretically turn into what I call a «Lehman moment». That is when markets come under pressure but seem to be under control, and then things change suddenly.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 12





  • Russia faces new U.S., EU sanctions over Ukraine crisis (Reuters)
  • Glasgow pulls no punches in welcome to 'Save the Union Express' (Guardian)
  • Pound Seen Tumbling Up to 10% on Scottish Yes Vote (BBG)
  • Moscow stifles dissent as soldiers return in coffins (Reuters)
  • Ukraine's leader sees no military solution of crisis, eyes reforms (Reuters)
  • Venezuela Threatens Harvard Professor for Default Comment (BBG)
  • Australia Raises Terror Alert to Highest Level in a Decade (BBG)
  • Activist Investors Build Up Their War Chests (WSJ)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 11





  • Obama orders U.S. airstrikes in Syria against Islamic State (Reuters)
  • Obama Relying on Mideast Allies to Counter Islamic State (BBG)
  • Scotland Nationalists Claim U.K. Oil in 40-Year Campaign (BBG)
  • Scottish Polls Embolden Catalans Pushing Rajoy for Vote (BBG)
  • Royal Bank of Scotland: RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence (Guardian)
  • Most Hedge-Fund Managers Are Overpaid, Unigestion Says (BBG)
  • China Inflation Softens to Four-Month Low (WSJ)
  • Munger Hosts Groupies, Mocks Wall Street, Praises Buffett (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Alan Greenspan's Nine Reasons "Why The Economy Stinks"





Yesterday, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was the keynote speaker at KPMG’s 2014 Insurance Industry Conference Tuesday, where he answered questions such as 1) where the economy is going, 2) why, and 3) when (if ever) is it likely to improve. The answers, as reported by Property Casualty 360, are: 1) nowhere fast, 2) because nobody is willing to invest, and 3) eventually, but nobody can tell when. He listed 9 specific reasons why the "economy stinks", although surprisingly, nowhere did he mention the fact that the current and future economic disaster is all a direct result of his ruinous reign at helm of the Fed where as a result of his "great moderation" and the Fed's catastrophic monetary policies conceived mostly under Greenspan himself, the economy is now perpetually stuck in a boom-bust cycle, and where every time a bubble bursts another has to replace it or else the entire western way of life will be gone in a heartbeat.

 
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