Ford

Frontrunning: February 4

  • EU Slashes 2016 Inflation Forecast to 0.5% as Growth Seen Slower (BBG)
  • Bank of England cuts UK growth forecasts (FT)
  • Investors Cast Wary Eye on Fed Rate Increases (WSJ)
  • U.N. halts Syria talks as government closes in on Aleppo (Reuters)
  • Credit Suisse Drops as Investment Bank Slump Deepens Losses (BBG)
  • Six OPEC states ready for emergency meeting with non-OPEC members — Venezuela's minister (TASS)

Shale Shock: Another Leg Lower In Oil Coming After Many Producers Found To Have Far Lower Breakevens

According to a report by the Bloomberg Intelligence analysts William Foiles and Andrew Cosgrove, Saudi Arabia may have its work cut out for it as it will be far harder to kill many U.S. E&Ps than analysts originally thought. The reason: a break-even model for the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford shows that oil production across five plays in Texas and New Mexico may remain profitable even when WTI prices fall below $30 a barrel, according to a 55-variable Bloomberg Intelligence model for horizontal oil wells.

Another Nail In The US Empire Coffin: Collapse Of Shale Gas Production Has Begun

Without energy, the U.S. economy would grind to a halt. All the trillions of Dollars in financial assets mean nothing without oil, natural gas or coal. Energy drives the economy and finance steers it; and the financial industry is driving us over the cliff. The U.S. Empire is in serious trouble as the collapse of its domestic shale gas production has begun.

Frontrunning: January 28

  • Unease over Fed rate path dents European stocks (Reuters)
  • Global Stocks Pressured After Fed Statement (WSJ)
  • Japan's Economy Minister Amari to Resign Over Graft Scandal (BBG)
  • Authorities working to clear remaining protesters in Oregon occupation (Reuters)
  • China Sharpens Efforts to Halt Money Outflow (WSJ)
  • Eurozone January Economic Sentiment Falls Sharply, Hits 5-Mth Low (MNI)

Futures Bounce Fades As Oil Treads Water, Italian Banks Turmoil, Chinese Stocks Won't Stop Falling

Following the Fed's disappointing "dovish, but not dovish enough" statement which effectively admitted Yellen had committed policy error by hiking just as the US economy "was slowing down" which in turn lowered the odds of a March rate hike to just 18%, it was up to oil to pick up the correlation torch, and so it did, rising in an otherwise mixed session which has seen European stocks slide on continued weakness surrounding Italian banks, many of which have been halted limit down, while Asia was treading water following news of the resignation of Japan’s "Abenomics" minister Akira Amari to over a graft scandal, and yet another day of Chinese stock dropping.

Presidential Crimes Then And Now

In the US the rule of law, and with it liberty, have been lost. With few exceptions, Americans are too ignorant and unconcerned to do anything about it. The longer the rule of law is set aside, the more difficult it is to reestablish it. Sooner or later the rule of law ceases even as a memory. No candidate in the upcoming election has made the rule of law an issue. Americans, even well informed ones, dramatically over-estimate the knowledge of presidents and the neutrality of the information that is fed to them by the various agencies and advisors. Information is power, and presidents get the information that Washington wants them to receive.

Frontrunning: January 25

  • Oil Drops as Saudis to Maintain Spending, China Diesel Use Falls (BBG)
  • Saudi Arabia is able to withstand low prices says Saudi Aramco Chairman (WSJ)
  • Recession Warnings May Not Come to Pass (WSJ)... or they May
  • Stocks moving in tandem are squeezing short sellers (FT)... as first noted here in 2013
  • Problems Found at Theranos Lab (WSJ)
  • New York rebounds after blizzard, Washington shuts down government (Reuters)
  • China business confidence, recruitment hit record lows in January - SMI survey (Reuters)

Trump Will Force Apple "To Build Its Damn Computers And Things" In America

As we come up on the Iowa caucus, voters want to know how the candidates plan to turn campaign trail word into political deed and Trump has some ideas on how to reinvigorate America's dying manufacturing sector. For one thing, Trump thinks, we should shutdown Foxconn and get to making iPhones in the Rust Belt.

GM/Ford Credit Risk Surges To 2 Year Highs As Fitch Raises Auto Sector Concerns

With the feds probing Deutsche Bank's exaggerating Auto ABS demand, car dealerships suing automakers for being forced to channel-stuff, direct evidence of massive channel-stuffing with near-record inventories-to-sales, and sales now beginning to tumble after last month's weak credit growth, it is perhaps no wonder that Fitch has raised the warning flag about automotive vehicle and parts makers...