France

When 'Whatever It Takes' Fails: 37% Of Italians Give Up Job Hunt As Welfare State Grows

With France calling for the EU's budget limits to be lifted and everyone breaking every rule of fiscal responsibility - because Draghi has killed the market's signal - the fear of ever deepening deficits is (for now) removed. Enabling governments to do "whatever it takes" to get re-elected, because reforms are vote-killers, has incentivized an ever-growing group of Europeans to simply give up the job search... with Italians at the top of the list...

It's All About This Friday's Payrolls: Key Events In The Coming Week

After Friday's Jackson Hole repricing of Fed hike expectations, which made it clear that the fate of a September rate hike is now in the hands of the August payrolls number, the main risk event of the week is therefore this Friday's US NFPs for which consensus expects a reading of 180K, down from last month's 217K print. A number substantially above this will make a September hike virtually certain, and potentially risks roiling markets as good news will likely be bad news this time around.

Global Stocks Slide, Futs Flat; Commodities Down On Stronger Dollar As Hike Odds Reprice Higher

The dollar index rose to a two-week high on Monday, while bond yields jumped to their highest since June and global stocks sold off after senior Federal Reserve officials indicated a U.S. interest rate increase was on the cards in the near term. The Fed effect - and the stronger dollar - reverberated through markets, pressuring stocks in Europe and emerging markets, pushing oil below $47 and the commodity complex lower.

German Economy Minister: "TTIP Talks Have Failed"

In the latest blow for Obama's global trade agenda, German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel said that free trade talks between the EU and the US have failed, citing a lack of progress on any of the major sections of the long-running negotiations. "In my opinion the negotiations with the United States have de facto failed, even though nobody is really admitting it. [They] have failed because we Europeans did not want to subject ourselves to American demands.

A Kingdom In Turmoil: Saudi Societal Discontent Grows

"Given the current state of affairs in the Middle East, continued Saudi support for extremism and terrorism and increasing Islamic terror attacks on Europe and the US, US/Saudi relations will continue to deteriorate or remain in flux, regardless who wins the US Presidency in November 2016... we are likely to see more societal discontent and harsher responses by the Saudi oligarchy. Some signs are already evident..."

Frontrunning: August 26

  • Global equities set 2-week low before Yellen speech, dollar dips (BBG)
  • Lochte signs new endorsement deal, legal woes persist in Brazil (Reuters)
  • Blackstone Unleashes Cash Hoard in Texas Shale Oil Land Grab (BBG)
  • China to prosecute former statistics bureau chief for corruption (Reuters)
  • Turkey fires on U.S.-backed Kurdish militia in Syria offensive (Reuters)

With Janet Yellen Just Hours Away, Directionless Markets Wait For A Signal

With Yellen's much anticipated speech just hours away, the already comatose market flatlined overnight in another directionless session, with European stocks and US equity futures practically unchanged, while Asian shares to a two-week low, led by Japan, as investors showed a reluctance to take on risk before Yellen’s speech. The dollar was a tad lower, along with oil which is set for its first weekly drop in a month. 

Frontrunning: August 25

  • Stock futures lower as countdown to Yellen speech begins (Reuters)
  • Italy quake death toll nears 250 as rescuers search demolished towns (Reuters)
  • Central bankers eye public spending to plug $1 trillion investment gap (Reuters)
  • Chelsea Clinton Plans to Stay on Board of Family Foundation (WSJ)
  • Bond Traders Are Desperate for Direction From Yellen in Jackson Hole (BBG)

Global Stocks Decline Along With The Dollar, As Jackson Hole Begins

Global stocks declined broadly, led by European equities which fell for the first time this week while currency markets continued their subdued tone even as the recent 4-day rally in the USD appears to have topped out, as investors took to sidelines ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting which begins tonight. Japanese and Chinese stocks had suffered modest drops in Asia.  S&P 500 Index futures slipped 0.2%, continuing yesterday's modest selloff.

France To Deploy 3,000 Troops To Schools: "The Threat Is Real" Education Minister Says

France interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve announced France would deploy about 3,000 reserve troops, train school authorities and ramp up school anti-terror drills in case of attacks, its education and security ministers announced on Wednesday, a week before the start of a new academic year. "The threat is high, it is real," the French Education Minister Vallaud-Belkacem added.