France

If this weekend's gruesome terrorist attack on Paris ended up being hugely bullish for stocks, then two subsequent events, a stadium-evacuation scare in Hannover (where Angela Merkel was supposed to be present) and a raid in north Paris which left several dead in the ongoing manhunt against the alleged ISIS mastermind, appear to have but some question into if not stocks then algos whether a rising wave of terrorist hatred across Europe is truly what central bankers need to unleash more QE. That said, we expect the current weakness to last only until the traditional USDJPY carry ramp pushes stocks traditionally higher.

Heavy shooting, including explosions have been reported in St-Denis, a northern Paris suburb. St-Denis is where the Stade de France, one of the targets of Friday’s attacks, is located, although the current operation is about 2km away. The targets of the raid are the suspected mastermind of the Paris attacks, Abdelhamid Abaaoud; as well as Salah Abdeslam who has been the subject of an international manhunt. Police report three gunmen have been killed and there have been reports of a woman detonating a suicide belt. There have been three arrests.

"There is no such thing as ISIS. ISIS is a creation of the US, we know that from official sources in the US military themselves and declassified documents. The mass media derides those who question the war on terror as 'conspiracy theorists.'" 

In the aftermath of the weekend's horrific attack, several realities have become clear. Taking history into account, three things will undoubtedly occur in response to the terror attacks in Paris.

Here are some of the lessons we in the United States learned too late about allowing our freedoms to be eviscerated in exchange for the phantom promise of security. The over-arching principle is simply this: once you start down the road towards a police state, it will be very difficult to turn back.

Bombing wont stop them; it will just make more of them. Ironically, what can stop them is the Assad government and the ground forces of its Hezbollah and the Iranian Republican Guard allies. Its time to let them settle an ancient quarrel that has never been any of America’s business anyway. But Imperial Washington is so caught up in its myths, lies and hegemonic stupidity that it can not see the obvious. And that is why a quarter century after the cold war ended peace still hasn’t been given a chance and the reason that horrific events like last week’s barbarism in Paris still keep happening.

Observing a moment of silence for the victims of last Friday's massacre in the streets of Paris has become something of a global phenomenon at everything from sporting events to stock exchanges and generally speaking, everyone has been outwardly happy to oblige. Well, not Turkish soccer fans...

For the second straight day, France hit ISIS "targets" in Raqqa while domestic security personnel conducted more than 120 fresh raids across the country in a frantic effort to head off further attacks. Meanwhile, President Hollande is making a bid to change the constitution in what some are billing as a French "Patriot Act." 

Editor’s Note: Last week gold price fell to 5 year lows and weakness again saw canny buyers accumulate on the dip. Sales of U.S. Mint gold coins jumped the most in nearly three months. The 2015 $10 American Gold Eagles actually sold out.

The Turkish authorities warned their French counterparts twice in the past year about one of the attackers, Ismaël Omar Mostefaï, a 29-year-old French citizen who was known by the authorities as someone who had radical Islamist beliefs, an official said on Monday. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, in line with government protocol, said the government never heard back from France and only received an “information request” about Mr. Mostefaï after the Paris attacks.

• France, Russia strike Islamic State in Syria, EU aid invoked (Reuters)
• Pressure Grows for Global Response Against Islamic State After Paris Attacks (WSJ)
• Weakened Hollande Faces Election Backlash in Wake of Attacks (BBG)
• French Official Calls for Metal Detectors at Train Stations (NYT)
• Belgium Raises Terror Threat Level, Cancels Soccer Game vs Spain (BBG)
• Foreign Companies Scrap Paris Events After Terror Attacks (BBG)

Who would have thought terrorism is so good for stocks.

America’s leading Sunni ally is proving how easily hubris, delusion, and old-fashioned ineptitude can trump even bottomless wealth.

Walker Texas Ranger has a history lesson for you: The murder sprees in Paris may go down in history like the Nazis’ invasion of Poland on Sept. 1, 1939, as the spark that lit the fuse for a wider European involvement in World War II. The impact of ISIS in Syria and Iraq is comparable to Hitler’s annexation of Czechoslovakia and Austria, which caused great concern and condemnation but not greater European revolt." 

The Islamic State’s horrific attacks in Paris provide a stark reminder that Western powers cannot contain – let alone insulate themselves from – the unintended consequences of their interventions in the Middle East. The unraveling of Syria, Iraq, and Libya, together with the civil war that is tearing Yemen apart, have created vast killing fields, generated waves of refugees, and spawned Islamist militants who will remain a threat to international security for years to come. And the West has had more than a little to do with it.