France

Paul Volcker announced his intention to squeeze inflation out of the system soon after he became Fed chairman. Too bad he didn’t save a better system. Not many men can resist the appeal of free money. Americans proved they were no better at it than others. Falling interest rates and the paper dollar gave them a way to impoverish themselves – by spending money they hadn’t earned. They took the opportunity offered to them. They borrowed and spent... and drove the entire world forward at a furious pace. But now that stage is over.

It is a generally quiet week on the economic front, with updates mostly on the housing front where following today's euphoric NAHB Housing Market Index, we have housing start and permits, blaims and existing home sales. Elsewhere, Fed speakers continue to speak, with Lacker, Dudley (again) and Powell confusing traders once more. The big news this week is earnings as some of the most prominent companies report, including IBM, Verizon, GM, Ebay, Coke, Boeing, Amazin, AT&T, CAT, Microsoft and P&G.

• Great News: China’s GDP Growth Beats Forecasts as Stimulus Supports Spending (BBG)
• Oh wait, maybe not: China GDP: Deflategate Comes to Beijing (WSJ)
• Actually, definitely not: Shanghai rebar falls to record low after weak China GDP (Reuters)
• But who cares: European Shares Gain on Earnings as Bonds Drop, Metals Decline (BBG)

"It’s different this time works very well if you need to rationalize how to beat your return benchmark next quarter or win an election." The truth is that central banks cannot manipulate raw supply and demand the way they can financial assets.

Until Putin’s speech the world was intimidated by the Washington Bully. Resistance to Washington brought swift retribution. In the Middle East and Africa it brought economic sanctions and military invasions that destroyed entire countries. In France and other US vassal states it brought multi-billion dollar confiscations of bank net worth as the price of not following Washington’s policies toward other countries. Other countries felt powerless in the face of the arrogant hegemonic Unipower, which from time to time replied to noncompliance with threats. President Putin of Russia brought all that to end on September 28. He stood up before the world in the presence of the overflowing hubris of the hegemon and belled the cat.

Politicians have zero respect for our human rights for they only think about how they are going to raid our wealth to pay for their families and retirements at our expense. These people are highly dangerous. They only see government as the solution and do not grasp that we have rights. Government wants to eliminate all encryption because they are hunting money. You have a 1000 times greater chance of dying in a car crash than by a terrorist. They use terrorism as the great excuse to collect everything we do.

Two months after French president Hollande, under heavy pressure from NATO, decided to scrap a deal to deliver two Mistral helicopter carriers to Russia which were sold to Egypt instead, the same French President announced on Wednesday that he "expects to sell new warships to Russia in the near future." To which Moscow promptly replied as follows....

Aside from Chinese monetary data, it was a relatively quiet session in which traders were focusing on every move in the suddenly tumbling USD, and parsing every phrase by central bankers around the globe, as well as the previously noted piece by Fed mouthpiece Jon Hilsenrath which effectively ended the debate whether there will be rate hikes in 2015. Adding to the overnight froth were ECB speakers first Ewald Nowotny and then Spain's Restoy, who said that euro-area core inflation "clearly" below goal, remarks which were immediately assumed to signal increasing pressure to boost stimulus, and which promptly translated into even more weakness in EUR and equity strength, pushing US futures up about 15 points from yesterday's close.

News That Matters

When China was closed for one week at the end of September, something which helped catalyze the biggest weekly surge in US stocks in years, out of sight meant out of mind, and many (mostly algos) were hoping that China's problems would miraculously just go away. Alas after yesterday's latest trade data disappointment, it was once again China which confirmed that nothing is getting better with its economy in fact quite the contrary, and one quick look at the chart of wholesale, or factory-gate deflation, below shows that China is rapidly collapsing to a level last seen in 2009 because Chinese PPI plunged by 5.9% Y/Y, its 43rd consecutive drop - a swoon which is almost as bad as Caterpillar retail sales data.

“I can’t even say with conviction that I’m sure, looking strictly on a cost-benefit basis, that FATCA’s... benefits are going to outweigh the cost.” FATCA constitutes theft. The US government is generating a little bit of revenue and the great expense of foreign banks and governments (not to mention the thousands of Americans who have had to renounce their citizenship because of FATCA’s idiotic rules).

This has infuriated the Fed and is forcing it to take more and more aggressive measures to trash cash.

With the "adult supervision" of US markets gone today as bond markets are closed for Columbus day, and the USDJPY tractor beam also missing with Japan also offline for Health and Sports day, stocks took their cues from China where speculation was rife that in lieu of cutting RRR, the PBOC has unleashed even more incremental QE by expanding its Collateral Asset Refinancing Program (CAR). Specifically, the central bank said this weekend it will expand a program allowing lenders to use loan assets as collateral for borrowing from the central bank, opening it up to nine more cities from the program's test in Shandong province and Guangdong. The new areas for the program include Beijing and Shanghai. According to some estimates released several trillions in liquidity into the market, and not only sent government bond futures to new highs, but pushed the Shanghai Composite up over 3% overnight.

As part of a global investigation into how much physical gold central banks have stored at what location and how much is leased out, we submitted the local equivalent of a Freedom Of Information Act (FOIA) request at the central bank of Belgium (NBB) to obtain information about the amount of Belgian official gold reserves, the exact location of all gold bars, the type of gold accounts NBB holds at the Bank Of England (BOE) and how much is leased out and to whom. The outcome of this research was not what we had expected...

• Global stocks eye biggest rally in four years on Fed relief (Reuters)
• FOMC Minutes Sap Confidence in Fed's 2015 Rate Hike Resolve (BBG)
• Glencore to cut annual zinc production by a third (FT)
• Tea Party wave that lifted Republicans threatens to engulf them (Reuters)
• Why Kevin McCarthy Came to Quit Speaker Race (WSJ)
• A U.S. Recession Just Got a Little More Likely (BBG)