France

News That Matters

• MOAR: Euro-Area Growth Seen Slowing in Sign More Stimulus May Be Ahead (BBG)
• MOAR: Japan's wage growth slows in August, keeping pressure on BOJ for more stimulus (Reuters)
• MOAR: Stocks, Copper, Emerging Markets Jump as Fed Delay on Rates Seen (BBG)
• And yet... Central Banks Lose Bond-Market Credibility as Woes Mount (BBG)
• World Bank cuts Asia growth forecast on China and US rates (BBC)

Following Friday's disastrous payrolls report, which confirmed all the pre-recessionary economic data and signaled that instead of approaching "lift-off" and decoupling from the rest of the world, the US economy is following the emerging markets into a slowdown in what may be the first global, synchronized recession since 2008, the market saw its biggest intraday surge since 2011 and the sharpest short covering squeeze in history, we are happy to announce that the "market" is now solidly back in "bad news is good news" mode.

When "whatever it takes" is not enough... Despite Draghi's promises and EU leaders' exuberance, European Investor Confidence tumbled to its lowest since January as the Q€ bounce has now well and truly died. While volatility has picked up over the last month and reassuring tones have been uttered by every central banker in the world, it is the real economy that appears to be weighing on confidence as Eurozone Composite PMI prints at 53.6 - its lowest since February.

The sequence of events leading up the French Revolution are likely unfamiliar to most. Yet money printing and a debauched French currency played no small part in those events. As a sequel to “Shorting the Federal Reserve”, 720 Global aims to provide an historical example of excessive money printing which lead to financial crisis, and ultimately the revolution of a major sovereign nation. More than a history lesson, this article effectively illustrates the road on which the U.S. and many other nations currently travel. The story relayed in this article is not a forecast for what may happen but a simple reminder of what has repeatedly happened in the past.

Moves will be made to ban physical cash in the coming months.

Amid the migrant crisis in Europe, and the Czechs pulling people off trains and writing on their arms, a French municipality launched a probe into an Auxerre elementary school’s use of yellow tags to identify students who do not eat pork. "It's revolting. It brings back memories of dark times," noted one member of the Auxerre town council, but the mayor’s office said it was "an isolated, clumsy and unfortunate initiative."

With China markets closed for holiday until the middle of next week, and little in terms of global macro data overnight (the only notable central banker comment overnight came from Mario Draghi who confidently proclaimed that "economic growth is returning" which on its own is bad for risk assets), it was all about the USDJPY which has seen the usual no-volume levitation overnight, dragging both the Nikkei higher with it, and US equity futures, which as of this moment were at session highs, up 7 points. The calm may be broken, though, as soon as two hours from now when the September "most important ever until the next" payrolls report is released.

Good news! Bad news is again great for stocks, and overnight we had just the right amount of bad news from Japan, China and Europe to send stocks surging on the first day of the final quarter.

What worked in the post-global financial meltdown era of 2008-2014 will not work the same magic in the next seven years.

News That Matters

It was all about China once again, where following a report of a historic layoff in which China's second biggest coal producer Longmay Group fired an unprecedented 100,000 or 40% of its workforce, overnight we got the latest industrial profits figure which plunging -8.8% Y/Y was the biggest drop since at least 2011, and which the National Bureau of Statistics attributed to "exchange rate losses, weak stock markets, falling industrial goods prices as well as a bigger rise in costs than increases in revenue." In not so many words: a "hard-landing."

Whether it’s the economy, climate, the planet, warfare, your future obligations, your pensions, the future of your children, nobody in power tells you the truth. Human life is fast losing the value we would like to tell ourselves we assign to it. We don’t, do we? Our technological advances haven’t come with moral advances, quite the contrary, our morals turn out to be a thin layer of mere cheap veneer. What advances we’re making are the last death rattle of a society in decline, and a dying civilization.