France

"They were very busy over the weekend"...

While Asian trading overnight started off on the right foot, chasing US momentum higher, things rapidly shifted once Europe opened as attention moved back to global growth fears, global central banks losing credibility, as well as miners and the ongoing Volkswagen fiasco.

In the week following the Fed's admission it is not only market-driven but now has a 4th mandate, which is to respond to China's hard landing on a day-to-day basis, US macro events mecrifully slow down to give everyone a chance to digest what the Fed just did. Here are the highlights.

Gold had a 3 percent weekly gain and silver had a 3.5% weekly gain. Gold ended with a gain of 0.73% on Friday while silver rose to as high as $15.43 before ending with a gain of 0.26%.

Non-bombasitc overview of the investment climate.  No, the sky is not falling.  This is not the end of days.  

Citing "continuing weakness in the medium-term growth outlook," Moody's has downgraded France:

*FRANCE CUT TO Aa2 FROM Aa1 BY MOODY'S, OUTLOOK TO STABLE

Apearing to blame The EU's "institutional and political constraints," Moody's expects French growth to be at most 1.5% and does not expect the debt burden to be materially reduced this decade.

Europeans are caught between being compelled to help - on what is truly a humanitarian catastrophe - and dealing with the uncertain consequences of bringing in such a large number of people. Part of that anxiety relates to the fact that the majority of those migrants adhere to Islam, where its relationship with Europe has been uneasy for many centuries. However, framing the debate in religious terms is too simplistic and overlooks some important facts. Whatever your view is, one thing is clear: Europe will never be the same again.

"There are modern weapons that the regime didn't previously have, be they rocket launchers or air to ground to missiles."

The long awaited day is finally here by which we, of course, mean the day when nobody has any idea what the Fed will do, the Fed included. Putting today in perspective, there have been just about 700 rate cuts globally in the 3,367 days since the last Fed rate hike on June 29, 2006, while central banks have bought $15 trillion in assets, and vast portions of the world are now in negative interest rate territory.

We’re seeing a shift in the world’s dominant superpower at the exact same time there’s a shift in the global financial system, and reserve currency, and game-changing technology. And even more trends that we haven’t even discussed. The convergence of all of these trends at the same moment is the MEGA-trend. The last time this happened was... never.

America Wanted War … Not a Negotiated Peace

Almost two weeks after we explained why any hope for a QQE boost by the BOJ is a myth, and that any increase in monetization will simply lead to a faster tapering and ultimately halt of Kuroda's bond purchases the market finally grasped this, when overnight the BOJ not only did not easy further as some - certainly the USDJPY - had expected, but kept its QE at the JPY80 trillion level and failed to offer any hints of further easing that many had hoped for, pushing the Nikkei down from up almost 400 point intraday to virtually unchanged and sending the USDJPY back under 120. JGBs also traded lower on concerns there may not be much more QE to frontrun.

The UK Labor Party's new leader Jeremy Corbyn has, rather unsurprisingly, is making controversial headlines already. His appointment of John McDonnell - an outspoken opponent to the independence of central banks: "in the first week of a Labour government, democratic control of the major economic decisions would be restored by ending the Bank of England’s control over interest rates," - as shadow chancellor has been met with derision in the British press. Initially described as a "nutjob" by The Telegraph, McDonnell's 'plan' to close the deficit is simple - instead of cutting spending, he will dramatically raise taxes on businesses and the rich. The Telegraph then watered-down their perspective, we think, slamming McDonnell's policy as "cloud cuckoo land economics."

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