France

The big news out of Europe on Friday was not S&P’s downgrade of 9 countries, France included. The ratings agency told us weeks ago that it might do this. No, much more important was the ECB’s saying in the bluntest possible terms that the EU leaders are backtracking on the fiscal compact agreed just 5 weeks ago by 26 of the 27 countries... Now the folks responsible for the actual writing of this fiscal treaty have only two weeks before the next EU summit to come up with something that satisfies both the EU heads of state — whose attempts to soften the terms show that they are apparently having second thoughts about giving away fiscal sovereignty — and the ECB paymaster. They’ll need to be as flexible as Chinese acrobats to make it work.

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• Greece’s Creditors Seek End To Deadlock (FT)
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• Japan Key Orders Jump; Policymakers Fret over Euro (Reuters)
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Although gold had its largest drop in the last 2 weeks on Friday, (-1.6%), it was 1.3% higher on the week and trading higher this morning.  Many analysts feel that current sovereign, macroeconomic and geopolitical risks are not reflected in gold's price. Friday's news of France's loss of its AAA rating has put the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) at risk. The Eurozone economy resembles a large ship sailing in rough seas since France fund's 20% of the EFSF fund and 8 other members were also downgraded. This will almost certainly lead to the EFSF's downgrade which would result in the fund too paying more to borrow as credit costs rise.  There are icebergs lurking in increasingly murky Eurozone waters. The European downgrades were long expected and may have been priced in the markets. The risk of a non orderly Greek default and of contagion in the Eurozone remains and is not priced into markets. It would lead to the euro falling sharply against other fiat currencies and particularly against gold.

After the fairly muted Wellington open, the reaction of the European bond markets to the S&P downgrade will be the next focus of attention. One benefit of the S&P ratings action is that it takes away one source of uncertainty. Given a French downgrade wasn't widely anticipated, market focus on this issue may well be short lived. Related to the European downgrades is the rating of the EFSF, which was also put on credit watch in early December. S&P have commented that they are in the process of evaluating the impact of the sovereign downgrades on the EFSF rating. For the AAA rating to be maintained it would require further commitments from European governments. Remaining in Europe, newswires report that Greek debt talks will resume Wednesday, thus the Greek PSI is likely to remain a focus all week.

It has been a busy weekend for Wall Street, which has been doing all it can to spin the S&P downgrade in the best favorable light, although judging by the initial EURUSD and EURJPY reaction, so far not succeeding. Below we present a quick report written by Goldman's Lasse Nielsen on why in Goldman's view the downgrade's "impact is likely to be limited" and also the quick notes from an impromptu call MS organized for institutional clients (which had just two questions in the Q&A section, of which only one was answered - it appears virtually noboby believes that global moral hazard will allow anyone to fail at this point, so why bother even going out of bed).

To those who woke up on Saturday to images of a massive cruise liner keeled over following a very peculiar Friday night accident off the coast of Italy, no, this was not a prop for the latest James Cameron movie: it is the Carnival Corp's Costa Concordia, which carried over 4,200 passengers and crew, and foundered after hit a submerged rock off the Tuscan  island of Giglio in very calm conditions. At last count 11 passengers and 6 crewmembers were missing, with at least 6 confirmed dead as of last night. Here is what is known as of right now.

More reasons why quality blogs should be staple fodder for those who are serious about real information and analysis. Now reporters, editors, bankers, analysts, managers, politicos & regulators frequent blogs. Do you wonder why?

All your questions about the historic European downgrade should be answered after reading the following FAQ. Or so S&P believes. Ironically, it does an admirable job, because the following presentation successfully manages to negate years of endless lies and propaganda by Europe's incompetent and corrupt klepocrarts, and lays out the true terrifying perspective currently splayed out before the eurozone better than most analyses we have seen to date. Namely that the failed experiment is coming to an end. And since the Eurozone's idiotic foundation was laid out by the same breed of central planning academic wizards who thought that Keynesianism was a great idea (and continue to determine the fate of the world out of their small corner office in the Marriner Eccles building), the imminent downfall of Europe will only precipitate the final unraveling of the shaman "economic" religion that has taken the world to the brink of utter financial collapse and, gradually, world war.

Not sure why they felt the need to wait until 430 since most of it was leaked already. Germany back to stable outlook is good. Austria and France chance EFSF but guess that is what LTRO is for. Italy and Portugal would be in trouble in the real world but so long as ECB views them as money good the countries and banks can keep printing money (sorry use LTRO). Roughly in line with expectations. I think the need to redo the EFSF and ESM concept is an issue that will need to be digested. Is BBB+ for Italy and junk for Portugal enough to cause some collateral provisions to be triggered or force some sellers? I don't think it will in any meaningful way but needs to be watched. I'm surprised Belgium got by but then again it is a rating agency.

Today's worst kept secret just hit the wires, as S&P announces that it has officially downgraded France

• FRANCE CUT TO AA+ FROM AAA BY S&P, OUTLOOK NEGATIVE
• "we believe that there is at least a one-in-three chance that we could lower the  rating further in 2012 or 2013"
• "we believe that a reform process based on a pillar of fiscal austerity alone risks becoming self-defeating,"

One notch, but the negative outlook means a future downgrade is likely.

Just like in the US, where we had our very own Treasury Secretary telling us there is "no risk" the US would get downgraded, about 3 months before America did in fact get downgraded, the cognitive dissonance between reality and fantasy is fully exposed today, this time in Europe. And whereas patriotic chauvinism has its good and bad sides, listening to politicians explain away how the impossible has just happened is always very amusing. Especially when translated by Google. Such as in this case, where we have grabbed the following article from Les Echos and dumped it into the modern version of the babel fish.

While it is already known that the first Friday the 13th of 2012 will be very memorable, at least for France, a bigger, and more philosophical question is, whether Friday the 13th is in general unlucky for stocks. UBS' Art Cashin provides the veteran perspective, as well as unravel some false myths about the term Triskaidekaphobia.

Now that a "few good hedge funds" have finally made CDS a credible instrument all over again but trampling all over ISDA putrid, corrupt and meaningless corpse, here is an update of Eurozone CDS.

The one we've all been waiting for:

• Eurozone Sources Say Several Countries May Face Imminent Downgrade By S&P -Dow Jones
• Eurozone source says Germany will not be downgraded - RTRS... So France will be?
• S&P declines to comment

Ladies and gents -happy Friday the 13th - the French downgrade is nigh. The only question - one or two notches. EURUSD promptly sliding on the news

All you need to read.