France

Imagine pensions not paying retiree funds, insurers not paying claims, and banks collapsing everywhere. Sounds like fun? I will be discussing this live on RT's Capital Account with the lusciously locquacious Lauryn Lyster at 4:30pm.

Just like during the holiday "break" the market is euphoric, however, briefly, on the fact that Italy sold Bills , however many, in a period protected by the 3 year LTRO. And just like the last time this happened, about two weeks ago, this auction shows nothing about the demand for Italian paper longer than 3 years, which unfortunately Italy not only has a lot of, but is rolling even more of it. And none of this changes what World Bank President Zoellick told Welt yesterday, namely that the Europe’s interbank market is frozen and continent’s banks only lend to each other through ECB due to a lack of confidence within the financial industry, World Bank President Robert Zoellick is quoted as saying by German daily Die Welt. He continues: "If European banks don’t lend to each other, how can others in the U.S. or in China be expected to do it." Anyway, here courtesy of Bloomberg's Daybook are the key overnight events as we prepare for the ECB 7:45 announcement and subsequent conference.

• Hedge Funds Try to Profit From Greece as Banks Face Losses (Bloomberg)
• Spain Doubles Target in Debt Auction, Yields Down (Reuters)
• Italy 1-Year Debt Costs More Than Halve at Auction (Reuters)
• Obama to Propose Tax Breaks to Get Jobs (WSJ)
• GOP Seeks to Pass Keystone Pipeline Without Obama (Reuters)
• Debt Downgrades to Rise ‘Substantially’ in 2012, Moody’s Says (Bloomberg)
• Petroplus wins last-minute reprieve (FT)
• Geithner gets China snub on Iranian oil as Japan plans cut (Bloomberg)
• Fed officials split over easing as they prepare interest rate forecasts (Bloomberg)
• Draft eurozone treaty pleases UK (FT)
• Premier Wen looks at the big picture (China Daily)
• US Foreclosure Filings Hit 4-Year Low in 2011 (Reuters)

In each of the years 2008, 2009, and 2010, significant worries emerged that Western nations might attack Iran. Here again in 2012, similar concerns are once again at the surface. Why revisit this topic again? Simply because if actions against Iran trigger a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40% of the world's daily sea-borne oil passes, oil prices will spike, the world's teetering economy will slump, and the arrival of the next financial emergency will be hastened. Even if the strait remains open but Iran is blocked from being an oil exporter for a period of time, it bears mentioning that Iran is the third largest exporter of oil in the world after Saudi Arabia and Russia. Once again, I am deeply confused as to the timing of the perception of an Iranian threat, right now at this critical moment of economic weakness. The very last thing the world economies need is a vastly increased price for oil, which is precisely what a war with Iran will deliver. Let me back up. The US has already committed acts of war against Iran, though no formal declaration of war has yet been made. At least if Iran had violated US airspace with stealth drones and then signed into law the equivalent of the recent US bill that will freeze any and all financial institutions that deal with Iran out of US financial markets, we could be quite confident that these would be perceived as acts of war against the US by Iran. And rightly so.

Following yesterday's extravaganza in European credit markets, which saw XOver (European high-yield credit) surge to highs year-to-date (wiping out a week's worth of leaking wider in one fell swoop), today's open suggested some follow-through but as macro data combined with France downgrade rumors (denied rapidly) sovereign and corporate credit markets sold off quite rapidly into the close. Interestingly, financials (senior and sub debt) managed to hold gains from yesterday's close as XOver and Main (Europe's investment grade credit index) along with the broad stock market lost ground to close near their lows (though well off yesterday's open still). EURUSD (holding under 1.27 at the EUR close) weakened fairly consistently after Spanish industrial output and German GDP did nothing to inspire and while sovereign spreads (Spanish and Italian mostly) were outperforming, as the French rumors hit, they sold off rapidly (France and Italy back to unchanged). As usual into the close there was a modest risk rally and sovereign spreads leaked modestly tighter (by around 6-9bps) with France underperforming but we did not see that bounce in corporate credit. The weakness in 'cheap-hedge' investment grade credit suggests risk appetite is not returning and decompression trades are back in vogue after yesterday's snap and perhaps a growing realization that no PSI agreement is looming anytime soon.

Over the weekend, and before it became a popular topic in the mainstream media and an issue of political debate, UBS first among the "non-fringers" discussed the topic of not only a coercive Greek restructuring (i.e., one in which there is no "agreement" of the bondholders) but that it is, in fact, imminent. Since then, the din over this issue has escalate with reports over the past two days, that Greece may enforce collective action contracts as well as force bondholders into a deal, since various hedge fund hold-outs have been holding Europe hostage, a development foreseen here in mid-2011. Unfortunately for Europe, which apparently has no idea what is going on, and whoever is advising it financially is certifiably an idiot, the coercive path is precisely what the end outcome may end up being. Naturally, while this is preciseley what should have happened long ago (and saved taxpayers everywhere hundreds of billions in Greek bailout funds), the fact is that it goes contrary to everything the imploding status quo and collapsing ponzi house of cards is doing to prevent an all out catastrophe, as a coercive transaction actually will have unpredictable and adverse spill over effects in virtually every aspect of European financial markets, which in turn will migrate to the US. The good news is that CDS, despite the constant attempts of the crony and corrupt ISDA otherwise, will once again become an instrument of hedging, which ironically in the long run will be stabilizing. But not before some serious short-term fireworks. UBS explains.

• Europe’s $39T Pension Threat Grows as Economy Sputters (Bloomberg)
• Monti Warns of Italy Protests as He Meets Merkel (Bloomberg)
• Bernanke Doubling Down on Housing Bet Asks Government to Help: Mortgages (Bloomberg)
• Europe Banks Resist Draghi Bid to Avoid Crunch by Hoarding Cash (Bloomberg)
• Europe Fears Rising Greek Cost (WSJ)
• ECB’s Nowotny Sees Risk of Mild Recession in Euro Region (Bloomberg)
• Republican Senators Criticize Fed Recommendations on Housing (Bloomberg)
• Spanish Banks Try to Build Their Way Out of Home Glut (WSJ)
• Europe Stocks Fluctuate After German Auction (Bloomberg)

Over the past hour the EURUSD has tumbled by nearly 100 pips on what some believe is a liquidation program, but is largely driven off continued European data weakness (and with the recession here, we will be getting much more of this in the days to come), as well as continued scramble for safety. Germany auctioned off a 5 year note which received €9billion bids for €4billion target; the bund yield 2.3bps was indicative of a safe haven bid, and explains why bank deposits with the ECB rose to a new record €486billion. The strength is somewhat peculiar as it was earlier reported that the German economy contracted by 0.25 bps in Q4, which is never a good thing, but the assessment is that German weakness will hit others more than Germany itself. Elsewhere, Spanish industrial production declined -7.0% Y/y vs an estimated -5.4%, the worst decline since Oct. 2009. Spain 2-year yield down -34bps, causing spread to bunds to fall 33bps. We doubt that this contraction will last, or the BTP yield flirting with the 7% barrier especially after Rabobank finally noted what we have been saying for a while, namely that LCH will soon have to hike Italian margins again. In Greece, CPI rose 2.2% Y/y vs est. 2.7%; a decline which is seen as a symptom of economic downturn. Confirming the slowdown, we learn that Euroarea Q3 economic growth was reduced to 0.1%, meaning that the recession likely started in Q4. Hungary is again a center of attention, after the forint drops following an EU statement it may suspend Hungary funding (unless the country hands over its legislative apparatus to the EU entirely). Finally, we find out that French Fitch is now channeling France, after saying that the ECB must do more to prevent a cataclysmic Euro collapse. All this leads to a drop in the EUR to under 1.27, a slide in crude to under $102, and a decline in gold to $1634 after nearly hitting $1650 in overnight trading as the world realizes that a return in Chinese inflation (that SHCOMP surge isnt coming on its own) courtesy of a loose PBOC, will mean a prompt retrace of the metal's all time highs.

All you need to read.

Those who depend on a strategy of pleading with central authorities to continue funding at old levels are doomed to disappointment--all systems follow an S-Curve of rapid expansion, stasis and decline. The Central State is no different. The solution is localism. By creating cheap housing with its own modest tax resources, then the village attracts young families, whose children will keep the village school from closing, and the commerce brought to the village and its post office will keep it above the "closure" threshold. Passively hoping that centralized concentrations of wealth and power will return to pre-eminence is a losing strategy, the equivalent of a cargo cult ritualistically hoping for a return to World War II-era bounty. Focusing local resources on obvious bootstrap solutions is the winning strategy, not just in the U.S. but globally.

Markets are moving positively across the board today following comments from Fitch, dampening speculation that France may be downgraded from its Triple A status. Fitch’s Parker commented that he does not expect to see France downgraded at all throughout 2012. However he added that there are continuing pressures for France from national banks and EFSF liabilities, Parker also reinforced German confidence stating that Germany’s Triple A rating is safe. Markets were also experiencing upwards pressure from strong French manufacturing data performing above expectations and successful Austrian auctions today, tightening the spread between France and Austria on 10-year bunds.

There was not much to note in the overnight session, where aside from artificial market-boosting developments out of China (noted here) which have carried over into a risk-on mood for the US market, however briefly, Europe has been virtually unchanged following two quiet auctions by Austria and the Netherlands. Austria sold a total of €660m of 4% 2016 bonds, and €600m of 3.65% 2022 bond. Avg. yield 2016 bond 2.213% vs 1.96% in the previous auction, in other words the shorter borrowing costs roses, and the longer ones fell. Holland sold a total of €3.105b of 0.75% 2015 bonds; the target was up to €3.5b. with an average yield 0.853%. End result EURUSD is virtually unchanged for the day at 1.2770 as of this writing despite some serious short covering earlier (as expected), while the Italian BTPs remain unch at 7.15%. What is probably more disturbing and is to be expected, is that now virtually all the free cash from the December 21 LTRO (all €210 billion of it) and then some has been allocated to the ECB, where the Deposit Facility usage rose by nearly €20 billion overnight to a new record of €482 billion, €217 billion more than the December 21 notional. The question that should be asked is just what do banks know that lemming long-only investors don't. Hint - ask UniCredit.

• Italy Is Biggest Risk to Euro, Says Fitch (WSJ)
• Greek Bailout in Peril (WSJ)
• Swiss Currency Test Looms for SNB’s Jordan in Race to Replace Hildebrand (Bloomberg)
• Daley to Depart as Obama Shifts Strategy From Compromise to Confrontation (Bloomberg)
• BOE Stimulus Expansion May Not Be Enough to Revive U.K. Recovery, BCC Says (Bloomberg)
• Geithner in China to Discuss Yuan, Iran (Bloomberg)
• China Won’t See Hard Landing in 2012, Former PBOC Adviser Yu Yongding Says (Bloomberg)
• Measures to boost China financial markets (China Daily)
• Obama Panel to Watch Beijing (WSJ)

All you need to know.

The bullishness is rather interesting considering the notable headwinds that exist in the European sovereign debt markets, the geopolitical risk seen in light sweet crude oil futures, and the potential for a recession to play out in Europe.