France

Frontrunning: July 13

  • Brexit, what Brexit? Shares near 2016 highs (Reuters), Global Stocks Inch Higher (WSJ), Stocks Climb With Copper as Brexit-Induced Volatility Subsides (BBG)
  • Yen under pressure as global stock markets rally (Reuters)
  • Spanish Banks Surge as Fears Subside Over EU Mortgage Ruling (BBG)
  • Pimco Loads Up on Treasuries as Gundlach to Gross Voice Caution (BBG)
  • U.S. Presses China to Be Responsible Power After Sea Ruling (BBG)

Global Stocks, Futures Rise On Disappointing Chinese Trade Data, Hopes For More Central Bank Intervention

In an otherwise quiet overnight session, which among other things saw Germany sell 10Y Bunds with a zero coupon and a negative yield (-0.05%) for the first time ever (despite being uncovered with just €4.038BN sold below the €5.00BN target) anyone hoping for a confirmation that China will be able to prop up the world economy once more, was left disappointed when earlier this morning China reported June exports and imports that once again dropped substantially in dollar terms as soft demand at home and abroad continued to weigh on the world’s largest trading nation.

Islamization Of France: Stabbing Policemen, "Slut-Shaming" & New Death Threats

Islamization is gaining ground in the Muslim community of France. For a long time, this trend remained restricted to the cultural sphere and created strong controversies between Islamists and secular intellectuals (such as the ban on face-covering veils in schools and public places). But the debate stopped being a debate. Sometimes Islamic intolerance takes on the appearance of a civil war. The violence, which was mostly concentrated in the suburbs prior to the January 2015 terrorist attack on the satirical magazine, Charlie Hebdo, is spreading now to the heart of French cities. Murders, assaults, death threats and "slut-shaming" happens almost every day here and there.

Who's Most Afraid Of Contagion From Italy's Bank Meltdown?

Contagion is the reason Italy’s banking crisis is all of a sudden Europe’s biggest existential threat. Greece’s intractable problems are out of sight, out of mind; Brexit momentarily spooked investors and bankers; but Italy’s banking woes have the potential to wipe out investors and undo over 60 years of supranational state-building in Europe.

Global Stocks Surge On Rising Hopes Of Japan "Helicopter Money"

A quick headline search for the phrases "Japan stimulus" and "helicopter money" is all one needs to understand the very familiar reason for today latest overnight global stock rally, which has sent the USDJPY surging some more, in the process pushing the Nikkei higher by 2.5%, China up over 1% (with the help of some late FX intervention by the PBOC), European stocks up 1%, US equity futures up 0.5%, and so on, in what is a global wave of green on the back of the helicopter money which after Bernanke's visit to Japan, market participants are now convinced is just a matter of time.

Merkel Admits That Terrorists Were Smuggled In Europe's "Refugee Flow"

Following months of sternly refusing to accept that her "noble" initiative to open up Europe to over a million refugees from the middle east had adverse consequences in not only sending anti-immigrant parties soaring in the polls but also indirectly encouraging terrorism, German Chancellor Angela Merkel today admitted that some terrorists entered Europe among the wave of migrants that fled from Syria adding that the refugee flow was used in part to “smuggle terrorists” on to the continent.

Here's How Much Europe Depends On The UK

As the following charts show, Europe can’t afford a break-up with Britain. The EU and Britain, therefore, are likely to reach a trade deal and maintain close economic and military ties despite the Brexit vote.

Key Events In The Coming Week

With the key event of the week flying largely under the radar, which as previewed here last week was Bernanke's visit to Japan which has already led to another global market spike, here are the rest of the week's events.

S&P 500 To Open At All Time Highs After Japan Soars, Yen Plunges On JPY10 Trillion Stimulus

S&P 500 futures are set to open at new all time highs, with global stocks rallying as the yen weakened and the Nikkei soared on speculation Japan is about to unveil the first instance of "helicopter money"-lite, as well as due to a continuation of better-than-expected U.S. jobs data. Further speculation that Italy's (and Europe's) insolvent banks will be bailed out has further boosted sentiment.

Irony Of The Day: Hollande Lectures US About Trump; Two-Way Frexit?

Hollande, whose popularity is in the gutter, lectures the US about Trump when a two-way “Frexit” looms in France: once from the Euro and a second from the EU. “The arguments in the Brexit vote and in the American presidential campaign are about the same,...In a friendly way, may I also give some advice to the American people to make the right choice when the moment comes.”

The Goldman Curse Strikes Again: Congratulations To Euro 2016 Winner Portugal

"France beat Germany 2-0 to advance to the Euro 2016 final against Portugal, against our model's expectations as of yesterday. Prior to the tournament, our model suggested France would take the trophy with a probability of 23.1%. After today's win, France's odds of becoming the next Euro champions jumped to 69.9%." - Goldman Sachs

US Futures Rebound After Volatile Session, All Eyes On June Payrolls

In a session where bleary-eyed traders followed the all-night tragic developments out of Dallas and initially sold off risk assets, it is good to see that some normalcy prevailed with the traditional post Europe-open futures ramp, which was further assisted by the successful resolution of the Dallas standoff, which has pushed futures modestly higher ahead of today's main event for markets, the June payrolls report due in under two hours.

Sweden: Rampant Sexual Assaults Steam On

The police released a report noting that Sweden is at the top of the EU's statistics on physical and sexual violence against women, sexual harassment and stalking. The report stated unequivocally that it is "asylum-seeker boys" and "foreign men" who commit the vast majority of the reported crimes.

In Unprecedented Decision, Europe Will Sanction Spain, Portugal Over Deficits While Ignoring France, Italy

Confirming yet again that just like in the US, "some are more equal than others", moments ago the European Commission announced that it would seek sanctions for Spain and Portugal for breaching limits on budget deficits in an unprecedented step to enforce rules designed to prevent another debt crisis.  Punishing the Iberian countries will be a deeply contentious and divisive issue. That’s because while other countries including France and Italy have all received warnings in recent years after missing targets on deficit or debt, no country has so far been sanctioned. Until now.