France

"In the year ahead, geopolitics likely poses the greatest potential to disrupt markets in terms of event risk. There is also the potential for geopolitical risks to intersect with economic fragility in the event of a downturn, amplifying both."

French voters are about to head to the polls for the first time since last month’s terrorist attacks in Paris. This alone is enough to make the upcoming regional elections particularly significant. However, as in pretty much every recent French election, all eyes will be on the performance of Marine Le Pen’s Front National. According to the latest polls, the anti-immigrant party looks close to a breakthrough at the regional level... Front National has never governed a French region. It now looks on course to win two of them.

Magic ‘Super Mario’, the ECB’s monetary magician, disappointed markets yesterday as continuing and unprecedented monetary easing failed to prevent a sharp sell-off in stock and bond markets yesterday which has continued today.

In a 445 “for”, 146 “against” (seven abstentions) vote, German lawmakers approved the use of six Tornado reconnaissance jets, and the deployment of a frigate to help "protect" the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle off the coast of Syria. Berlin will also send refueling aircraft and up to 1,200 military personnel.

Optimism in US equity futures appears to have returned, and as of this moment US equity futures are higher by 9 points to 2060 as the attention shifts to what, according to BofA, is truly the most important ever. It is unclear just how the algos would take a second consecutive major disappointment in a row: should today's NFP print be well below the 200,000 consensus, December rate hike odd will tumble and the EUR will surge even more after declining modestly from overnight highs just below 1.10, leading to even more losses in European equities and spilling over to the US. 

Too Bad Our Government Isn't Serious About Stopping Terrorism ...

According to the latest US naval map update from Startfor, the Truman is now off the Libyan coast, rapidly approaching Italy, and we expect is ahead of scheduled year-end ETA to its final destination, a few miles off the Syrian coast.

"When Russia courageously stepped into the breach we should have been applauding its willingness to confront ISIS. Instead, we continue to denigrate Russians as if they were still the Soviet Union and Putin, not Islamic terrorists, our most vicious enemy."

Yesterday's market swoon which unwound all of Tuesday's gains on concerns about a hawkish Fed and fears about terrorism in the US, are now completely forgotten, and have been replaced with the latest daily round of pre-ECB euphoria, driven by hopes that Mario Draghi will announce even more dovish details to Europe's Q€ 2 than just a 10 bps rate cut and a boost to QE more than €10 billion, both of which have been already priced in.

Fundamentalist Muslim Nation Trying to Drag NATO Into Jihad

Decoding the war in Syria is not for the faint of heart. For those looking to make sense of it all, we present the following infographic which should go some ways towards untangling what has become one of the most complex, convoluted wars in recent memory.

The day after the disaster in Paris, Marine Le Pen - leader of France's right-wing 'Front Nationale' party - called for the nation to "re-arm itself" and "eradicate" radical Islam, warning the French people that they are "no longer safe." So, it is hardly surprising that the inevitable fall-out from this ultra-nationalist commentary has resulted in Frenc citizens taking their own protection into their own hands...

"On all levels, Moscow has always noted that the continuing expansion of NATO, of the military infrastructure of NATO to the east, can only lead to retaliatory measure from the east, from the Russian side, in terms of guaranteeing the security and maintaining a parity of interests."

We are talking of course, about the infamous RRR-hike of 1936-1937, which took place smack in the middle of the Great Recession.

The lack of fear in risky assets is another way of saying that risk premia have been low, or as we also like to put it, that complacency has been high. Not fully appreciative of this inherent risk, it seems many investors have refrained from rebalancing their portfolios, and bought the dips instead. We believe the Fed’s efforts to engineer an exit from its ultra-low monetary policy should get risk premia to rise once again, that if fear should come back to the market, volatility should rise, creating headwinds to ‘risky’ assets, including equities. That said, this isn’t an overnight process, as the ‘buy the dip’ mentality has taken years to be established. Conversely, it may take months, if not years, for investors to shift focus to capital preservation, i.e. to sell into rallies instead.