France

The Unspeakable Crime Of Viktor Orban

"The unspeakable crime of V. Orbán is his insistence on acting in the interests of his citizens not to the self-declared arrogant unelected Commissars in Brussels...It‘s becoming crystal clear to more and more European citizens that the monster that is Brussels today does not represent the true interests of EU citizens..."

Iraqi Prime Minister Declares Mosul "Liberated" From The Islamic State

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi arrived in Mosul on Sunday to announce the city’s “liberation” from the Islamic State, and to congratulate the Iraqi armed forces and people on their “victory” in the city after nearly nine months of urban warfare, and bringing an end to jihadist rule in the city.

Eastern Europe Chooses To Keep Western Civilization

"Islam is a major culture and religion, which we must respect, but Europe has a different identity, and it is clear that these two cultures are incapable of coexisting without conflict... The greatest difference is that in Europe, politics and religion have been separated from one another, but in the case of Islam it is religion that determines politics..."

Washington And Berlin On A Collision Course

Trump and Chancellor Angela Merkel will definitely be on a collision course at the G-20, with Merkel emphasizing discussions on climate change, refugees and no trade protectionism, much to Trump’s disgust. The Russia sanctions bill just adds to the unholy mess. Expect a lot of fireworks “celebrating” those bilaterals in Hamburg.

Frontrunning: July 7

  • LIVE: Hamburg police demand reinforcements, as G20 starts amid heavy rioting (the Local)
  • G-20 Protesters Delay Arrivals at Hamburg Summit With Blockades (BBG)
  • Tensions Run High as Trump and Putin Prepare to Meet (WSJ)
  • Trump-Putin meeting under the microscope (Reuters)
  • Gorbachev urges Trump and Putin to 'rebuild trust' (AFP)
  • Wall Street Eyes Jobless Rate, Wages in June Jobs Report (WSJ)

Bond Rout Fades With Futures Flat Ahead Of Payrolls; Pound, Yen, Oil Tumble

S&P futures are little changed following yesterday's rout even as Asian and European markets continued selling; the pound slid on poor factory data, the yen tumbled after the BOJ intervened to stabilize the JGB bond market, precious metals flash crashed early in the session, while the selloff in oil accelerated despite yesterday's massive inventory draw, although at least yesterday's sharp bond tantrum has stabilized.

The Three Hidden Subplots Of The G20 Hamburg Summit

"The Group of Twenty, known as G20, is an unaccountable and powerful organization that is the closest thing on earth to a true world government... Financial risk, anti-globalism, immigration, and threats from terrorism will be on full display at this next G20 leaders’ summit. There will also be three key sub-plots happening off the main stage to watch closely."

Russia & India More Confident In Trump Than Merkel At G-20

When it comes to leadership at the G20, most countries are casting their eyes towards Angela Merkel.  That pattern is repeated across the board, though Russia and India are notable exceptions with majorites in both nations having more faith in Trump's global leadership.

Albert Edwards: "Something Smells Different This Time"

"Is it conceivable that the Fed is no longer so data dependent and doesn’t care how strong the economy is or whether wage inflation is going to pick up? Many commentators seem to think the Fed will simply back off tightening as soon as the going gets rough – as it has consistently done in the past. But something smells different."

U.S. Trade Balance Improves In May As Deficit With China, Europe Shrinks

Coming in largely as expected, the U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in May 2017 from an unrevised $47.6 billion in April (revised) to $46.5 billion in May, fractionaly worse than consensus expectations of $46.3 billion, as exports increased and imports decreased.

Global Bond Rout Sends S&P Futures, European Stocks Sliding

S&P futures are sliding this morning, down 0.4% and tracking the accelerating decline in European and Asian stocks, driven by a move higher in global interest rates, which started with Japanese 10Y yields rising to 0.1% for the first time since February, but mostly Bund yields which spiked after tripping stops, and jumped as high as 0.53% for the first time since early 2016.