Fund Flows

A Delighted Wall Street Reacts To The French Election

With European stocks on fire, and US futures moving fast to recoup recent all time highs, it is no surprise that Wall Street is feeling particularly bullish this morning. Below is a sample of slleside analyst reaction to Sunday's outcome.

China Eases Capital Controls As Dollar Weakens

China's central bank has relaxed some of the curbs on cross-border capital outflows it put in place just months ago to shore up the yuan currency. As of last week, the PBOC is no longer demanding that banks match outflows with equal inflows

Bank of America: "Our Clients Bought The Dip"

"We could see more buying on dips by clients, as the strategy has worked in recent years and we expect to see both higher volatility and higher stock prices this year."

Retail Flows Are Finished: RBC Warns "New Regime" For Stocks About 'Hard' Data & Earnings

'Reflation'-themed fund-flows are fading fast (with equities, cyclicals outflows accelerating), and 'higher rate beneficiaries'-linked bond flows (bank loans, HY, inflation protected) slowing to multi-month lows. As RBC's head of cross-asset strategy, Charlie McElligott notes, their model shows the ETF inflow story is no longer a price-driver of short term stock market pricing... "it's a new regime."

"Alexa... Should I Buy Stocks?"

Are retail investors buttressing US stocks at current (and elevated) levels? A variety of indicators say "Yes". Our primary concern: fund flows can be quite seasonal, with Q1-to-early Q2 a peak period due to retirement account flows. After mid-April, this diminishes considerably. Then, we will need a reliable stream of positive headlines to keep retail investors in the game.

June Rate Hike Odds Slump To 4-Month Lows

While Fed Funds futures imply a 100% probability that The Fed hikes rate by 25bps tomorrow, it appears questions over Trump's policy timeline combined with the collapse in GDP expectations has dragged expectations for another rate hike in June back to its lowest since the election...