Fund Flows

Goldman: The Last Two Times P/E Multiples Expanded This Much, The Result Was A Historic Crash

"The current P/E expansion cycle is now one of the largest in history. Since September 2011, S&P 500 forward P/E has grown by 75% (from 10x to 18x). This expansion has only been surpassed twice since 1976, when the multiple rose by 111% from 1984-1987 (ending with the 22% Black Monday collapse) and by 115% from 1994-1999 (ending with the Tech Bubble pop)." - Goldman Sachs

Investors Plow Record Cash Into Emerging Markets, As Europe Suffers Record Outflows

Whether it is due to the recent speculation that Japan may usher in helicopter money, or ongoing concerns about what Brexit may do to the future of European asset returns, there has been a dramatic shift in fund allocation and as Bank of America reports, investors are rushing to vote with their wallets. They have done so in the latest week by continuing to plow money into EM stocks, allocating a record amount of cash to Emerging Markets, while yanking a similarly record amount of cash from Europe.

"We Shouldn't Be At New All Time Highs" - Even Larry Fink Doesn't Get It

 "I don't think we should be at new [stock] highs... We are seeing investors worldwide pausing, we are seeing quite a large sum of money being pulled out of equities over the last year. And yet we are at record highs. That's just a sign of how much money is being taken out by central banks in their bond purchases, and stock repurchases from companies."

Stocks Near All Time High Despite 16 Straight Week Of US Mutual Fund Outflows, Historic "Redemption Day"

The new normal sure is strange: with the S&P flirting with all time highs, not to mention staging another dramatic V-shaped comeback from the post-Brexit crash which saw S&P futures trade limit down a week ago, investors keep on selling. According to Lipper data, U.S.-based stock mutual funds, which are held by retail mom-and-pop investors, posted cash withdrawals of $2.8 billion over the weekly period ended Wednesday; this was the 16th consecutive week of outflows.

JPM Head Quant Explains How The Algos Traded The Brexit Crash, And Why He Sees "Elevated Risk"

"As gamma exposure turned significantly short on Monday 6/27, it also contributed to a larger squeeze up on Tuesday and Wednesday (please note, these were even more prominent on 8/26 and 8/27 than this week)... We maintain the view that we have not yet seen the highs of VIX due to Brexit and  related risks. The points discussed above suggest equity markets face elevated risk in the days and weeks ahead."

Global Stock Surge Continues As "Investors Look To Central Banks For Support"

Why the ongoing rally? A squeeze, sure, and also month-end fund flows. But the fundamental driver remains one and the same, and we quote Bloomberg: "the relief rally endures as Asian and European stocks rally with crude oil amid speculation policy makers will use stimulus to blunt the impact of the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union, including a pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Investors are looking to policy makers for support."

JPMorgan Lays Out "The Worst Case"

"Longer term the implications for markets could be more serious. Investor positioning during the euro debt crisis can be thought of as the worst case for markets in the current conjuncture.  It would require another 10% decline in global equity indices from here, for the equity weighting of non-bank investors in the world to return to euro debt crisis levels in a worst case scenario. Such a decline would also push the current bond allocation of 22% to above the 23% peak seen during the euro debt crisis."

JPM's Quant Guru Unveils The $1 Trillion Catalyst That Will Unleash The Next Market In Turmoil

"About ~$1,000Bn of S&P 500 options expire this week. The gamma imbalance turned towards puts yesterday ($9bn per 1% currently), and this will likely push realized volatility higher near term. Post expiry, clients are likely to roll put strikes higher, which will also be supportive of higher volatility. Yesterday’s large move on the VIX indicates short gamma exposure of dealers on VIX products as well." - Marko Kolanovic

"Finally, A Week Of Buying" - After A Record 18 Weeks Of Selling, The "Smart Money" Is Back

A relentless stream of selling by Bank of America's "smart money" clients stretching for over 4 straight months, or 18 consecutive weeks, is finally over. As BofA's Jill Carey Hall reports, last week, during which the S&P 500 was flat from the prior week, BofAML clients were net buyers of US stocks for the first time in 19 weeks, breaking a record-long selling streak that began in mid-January.

In Historic First, Singapore Shuts Local Private Bank Due To "Worst Gross Misconduct" Is Has Ever Seen

Over one year after the collapse of 1MDB, aided and abetted by none other than Goldman Sachs, officials have finally started to piece together the fund flows, and BSI was the first casualty: "BSI Bank is the worst case of control lapses and gross misconduct that we have seen in the Singapore financial sector," Ravi Menon, managing director of MAS, said in the statement. “It is a stark reminder to all financial institutions to take their anti-money laundering responsibilities seriously."

Gold Fund Inflows Surge To Highest Of The Year

With high-yield bond funds suffering the largest redemptions in their history, this week saw gold fund flows soar to their highest in 2016 as buyers took advantage of the lower prices following the same path as George Soros, Stan Druckenmiller, Jana Partners, and Canada's financial giant CI Financial.