Fund Flows

June Rate Hike Odds Slump To 4-Month Lows

While Fed Funds futures imply a 100% probability that The Fed hikes rate by 25bps tomorrow, it appears questions over Trump's policy timeline combined with the collapse in GDP expectations has dragged expectations for another rate hike in June back to its lowest since the election...

"What Has Kept The Rally Going": Some Thoughts From Deutsche Bank

While the duration of the current rally is increasingly inside "outlier" territory, it so far show no signs of stopping. According to Deutsche Bank, there are several key reasons that have kept the market rising: i) Strong equity inflows following large outflows and massive under-allocation; ii) US equity fund positioning moved from under- to over-weight; iii) a return of buybacks, iv) the bypass - so far - of the negative phase in economic data surprises.

Is The Trump Trade Over? Here Is The "Barometer" BofA Uses To Decide

Bank of America has shared what it calls the "best barometer of “Trump/populist/inflation” trade" - banks versus bonds, or even simpler, the ratio of XLF to TLT. If headed up, Trump is still "winning." But once it takes a decisive step lower, risk assets may quickly turn sad!

Some Good News For Active Managers: First Weekly Mutual Fund Inflow In 12 Months

Finally some good news for active managers. After one year of consecutive outflows, last week saw the first inflows into long-only equity mutual funds going back to last February, as according to BofA there finally was a $0.5 billion cash inflow, "a sign of rising investor confidence & broadening participation in equity rally."

With The S&P At Record Highs, Investors Pull Cash From US Stocks In 4 Of The Past 5 Weeks

"it's risk-on in Bonds, it's inflation-on in Stocks, and EM is now playing role of cyclical catch-up trade" says BofA. In short, in the last week the Trump Trade has emerged from the dormancy in which it had faded for the past month. But when one looks at where the money is flowing, it's everywhere but where one would expect, as US stocks have seen outflows 4 of the past 5 weeks.

Gross: "Without QE From ECB And BOJ, The U.S. Economy Would Sink Into Recession"

"The ECB and BOJ are buying $150 billion a month of their own bonds and much of that money then flows from 10 basis points JGB's and 45 basis point Bunds into 2.45% U.S. Treasuries.... I would venture a guess that without QE from the ECB and BOJ that 10-year U.S. Treasuries would rather quickly rise to 3.5% and the U.S. economy would sink into recession."

EconMatters's picture

We discuss two videos in one here, the first is some mentoring advice to struggling traders, and the last half is some specific market education that will help struggling traders develop some of the fundamentals needed to properly analyze daily price action in financial markets related to tracking the fund flows.

S&P Futures, Dollar Rise As World Awaits Trump Inauguration Speech

"All eyes will be on the content and style of Trump's inauguration speech," Morgan Stanley's Hans Redeker wrote in a note.  "The more 'Presidential' this speech comes across, the better the outcome for markets." And as BonY added, "If Trump ramps up the rhetoric the market will be concerned about building long dollar positions."