• dazzak
    09/01/2015 - 21:45
    Wax on Wax off.....things could spiral out of control rather quickly

Funding Gap

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Greece Isn't Fixed... By A Long Way





The bail out is a cynical ruse, not to benefit Greece as a whole, but to benefit the banks and other creditors (the ECB and the IMF) who should take their medicine and move on. The one thing keeping the whole blighted euro project in place is an arrogant denial of the facts. A loss of political face now is a small price to pay for a much better outcome that will disadvantage far fewer people than the disorganised chaos into which Euroland will descend if the current bunch of lunatics are not put back in the asylum. Is this a Europe we want to be part of?

 
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Beggar Thy Neighbor? Greece's Battered Banks Beget Balkan Jitters





"Millions of people in ex-Communist Bulgaria, Macedonia, Albania, Serbia and Romania have deposits in banks owned by Greek lenders, putting this corner of south-eastern Europe in the frontline if there is contagion from the Greek crisis."

 
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Kansas Poor Tax A Reflection Of Nationwide Fiscal Crisis





"Kansas is in trouble. After slashing income taxes in 2012, the state faces a revenue gap of more than $400 million. Republican Governor Sam Brownback and state legislators are debating how to make up the shortfall. So far they’ve agreed on one way to control how state money is spent. Starting in July, people on the dole will be limited to a single ATM withdrawal of no more than $25 per day," Bloomberg says, adding that "Kansas is among several Republican-controlled states that have recently cut or limited public-assistance funds."

 
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Six Political Issues to Watch This Summer





The next several weeks are likely to be relatively eventful in Washington...

 
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Broke Kansas To Tax Poor People By Placing $25 Limit On ATM Withdrawals





Kansas, which is laboring under an $800 million funding gap, will limit cash withdrawals on state-issued benefit cards to $25 per day starting on July 1, forcing some beneficiaries to go to the ATM more often. Because the state charges $1 per trip, and because many low-income families do not have a checking account, the new law amounts to a sizeable 'poor tax'. 

 
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Thousands Gather At McDonald's Headquarters Demanding Higher Wages





"Protesters hailing from as far away as Kansas City and New York City participated in a demonstration at McDonald's Oak Brook headquarters Wednesday, urging that hourly wages for the burger giant's front-line workers be increased to $15 an hour", the Chicago Tribune reports. Police estimated the crowd at about 2,000 people. Organizers had projected that upward of 5,000 would participate in the demonstration.

 
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How China Covered The World In "Liquidity Swap Lines"





Central bank liquidity lines like those the Fed used to bailout the world seven years ago have become a fixture of the post crisis financial system. Since 2009, China has essentially blanketed the globe with yuan liquidity lines, inking swap agreements with nearly three dozen countries with the primary goal of increasing the degree to which the renminbi is used in international trade.

 
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Goldman Gets Cold Feet:"It Is Difficult To Predict How Negative The Market Reaction To Grexit Would Be"





"We think that, at the 10-year tenor, the spread between Spanish and Italian bonds yield versus Bunds yield could still widen to around 350-400bp before a policy response is enacted. We stress that the departure of a country from the ‘irrevocable’ monetary arrangements of the EMU would take us into unchartered waters and it is difficult to predict how negative the market reaction could be."

 
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It's April 15th - Do You Know Where Your Tax Dollar Went?





This will make every American feel much better about handing over that check today... as Simon Black notes today "I believe we have an obligation to starve the beast..."

 
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BofA's Modest Proposal For Greece: "A Negative Shock May Be Necessary"





Either Greece will stop trying to save the failed past and look into the future, treating the crisis and the adjustment program as opportunities to finally implement urgently needed reforms, or the country will be eventually forced to exit the euro, in our view.  Economics 101 teaches us that an economy can survive within a monetary union only if it has fiscal policy room and structural flexibility to respond to asymmetric shocks. In our view, Greece had none and has none. We see no solution for Greece within the Eurozone without reforms.

 
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Greece Faces Cash Crunch This Friday Without "Plan A Or Plan B": What Happens Next





Greece will need to find €2 billion by Friday in order to repay creditors as Schaeuble, others see no way out. With no contingency plan, Athens' day of reckoning may be at hand. Morgan Stanley is out today with a note diagramming what happens next. 

 
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The Global Dollar Funding Shortage Is Back With A Vengeance And "This Time It's Different"





Something curious has emerged as a result of the divergent "Fed-vs-Everyone-Else" central bank policy: as JPM observed over the weekend while looking at the dollar fx basis, the dollar funding shortage is back with a vengeance, and is accelerating at pace not seen since the Lehman collapse.

 
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Despite Tsipras Complaining That "ECB Has Rope Around Our Neck" Greece Finds Enough Cash To Make IMF Payment





While the biggest economic event of the week was the US February jobs report, one of the lingering concerns following last week's report that Greece is in financial dire straits, is whether the Eurozone member nation would default on its IMF loan as soon as today when it had a scheduled €310 million payment due to the IMF. Earlier today, in the build up to the NFP report, it was reported that indeed Greece had managed to dig deep under the cushion and find just enough cash to make the required partial loan repayment thus avoiding a technical default.  As Reuters reports, "struggling to scrape together cash and avoid possible default, Athens made a 310 million euro (223.37 million pounds) partial loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund, while Tsipras pleaded to be allowed to issue more short-term debt to plug a funding gap."

 
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As Greek Default Fears Return, Government Considers "Borrowing" Pensions To Repay IMF





Greek short-term default risk jumped over 300bps today putting the odds of a restructuring at 50-50 within the next year as the warnings we issued last week with regard Greece's imminent default on its IMF loan loom. Seeking to reassure its lenders (and avoid yet more capital flight), Reuters reports the Greek government said it was "exploring solutions," including delaying payments to suppliers or try to raise up to 3 billion euros by borrowing from state entities such as pension fundsWe are sure the Greek people will be enthused when they find out what the 'radical left' has in store for their funds...

 
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As IMF Default Looms & Tax Revenues Plunge, Greek Stocks & Bonds Tumble





As the rest of the world appears happy to assume everything is fixed in Europe (and if it's not, Draghi will buy it back to being awesome), Greece is looking unwell once again. Initial exuberance has faded dramatically in the last 3 days as IMF default warnings and a 22.5% plunge in tax revenues has sparked concerns about Greece's sustainability once again. Default (or restructuring) risk is soaring, Greek bond yields are surging, stocks sliding, and Greek banks (bonds and stocks) are getting hammered. As The Guardian's Helena Smith notes, "the country is in a strategic vacuum," and next week's T-Bill auction could be a major catalyst.

 
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